Toluca vs FC Juarez Prediction

Toluca
4-0
Finished
HT 2-0
FC Juarez
Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca·Abraham de Jesus Quirarte Contreras, Mexico 31/08/2026
TolucaToluca
4-0
Finished
FC JuarezFC Juarez

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
70%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.41
SignalSOLIDModel66%SurpriseMediumGap-1.3%
Value Analysis
65%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Over 9.5
1.70
SignalSOLIDModel63%SurpriseMediumGap+9.7%
Toluca Rest
3 days
FC Juarez Rest
8 days

Toluca vs FC Juarez: the result in context

Toluca beat FC Juarez 4-0 in the Liga MX on 31 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Toluca have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 3.1 goals a game. Referee Abraham de Jesus Quirarte Contreras averages 5.65 cards a game, 0.96 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
66%1.28
X
20%5.90
2
14%8.75
Double Chance
1X
86%1.05
X2
34%3.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%1.74
No
39%2.00
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.65 + 0.91 = 3.56
Over 1.5
92%1.11
Over 2.5
70%1.41
Over 3.5
48%2.05
Under 1.5
8%6.00
Under 2.5
30%2.81
Under 3.5
52%1.75
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.9 + 3.7 = 10.5
Over 8.5
71%1.42
Over 9.5
65%1.70
Over 10.5
47%2.10
Under 8.5
29%2.66
Under 9.5
35%2.06
Under 10.5
53%1.68
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 3.2 = 5.1
Over 3.5
69%1.32
Over 4.5
55%1.67
Under 3.5
31%2.98
Under 4.5
45%2.10

Match Events

10'HelinhoAssist: E. del Villar
17'Goal Disallowed - FoulO. Virgen
34'J. MurilloOG
35'HelinhoFoul
46'A. Vega INN. Castro out
46'F. Pereira INJ. Gallardo out
58'F. J. Nevarez PulgarinUnsportsmanlike conduct
65'F. J. Nevarez Pulgarin INA. Mayorga out
65'Monchu INGuilherme Castilho out
70'Helinho INF. Vinas out
70'F. Romero INF. Arce out
73'O. Virgen
74'G. Sepulveda INMadson out
79'F. VinasAssist: O. Virgen
81'J. Rodriguez INJ. Sigala out
81'O. Estupinan INRicardinho out
81'O. Virgen INA. Briseno out

Lineups

Toluca
4-2-3-1Coach: Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich Antonio
FC Juarez
4-2-3-1Coach: Salvador Valero
Hugo Gonzalez1H. Gonzalez
Sebastian Aceves184S. Aceves
Luan13Luan
Federico Pereira6F. Pereira
Everardo López25E. López
Franco Romero5F. Romero
Oswaldo Virgen23O. Virgen
Helinho11Helinho
Víctor Guzmán7V. Guzmán
Alexis Vega9A. Vega
Jorge Díaz29J. Díaz
Sebastián Jurado1S. Jurado
Francisco Nevarez33F. Nevarez
Jesús Murillo3J. Murillo
Gilberto Sepúlveda2G. Sepúlveda
Javier Aquino20J. Aquino
Rodrigo Dourado13R. Dourado
Monchu6Monchu
Denzell Garcia5D. Garcia
Jairo Torres10J. Torres
José Luis Rodríguez11J. Luis Rodríguez
Óscar Estupiñán19Ó. Estupiñán

Toluca Substitutes

12Ronaldo Dimas
4Bruno Méndez
20Jesús Gallardo46'for F. Pereira
3Antonio Briseño81'for O. Virgen
24Fernando Arce Juárez70'for F. Romero
192Luis Navarrete
15Pavel Pérez
8Nicolás Castro46'for A. Vega
16Federico Viñas70'for Helinho79'
198Jose Estrada

FC Juarez Substitutes

24Benny Díaz
14Eder Lopez
4Alejandro Mayorga65'for F. J. Nevarez Pulgarin
23Haret Ortega
9Madson de Souza Silva74'for G. Sepulveda
16Juan Sigala81'for J. Rodriguez
201Jan Carmona
21Ricardinho81'for O. Estupinan
7Raymundo Fulgencio
8Guilherme Castilho65'for Monchu

Match Stats

TolucaFC Juarez
65%Ball Possession35%
5Corner Kicks3
1Yellow Cards1
26Total Shots6
10Shots on Goal2
6Shots off Goal2
20Shots Inside Box3
6Shots Outside Box3
10Blocked Shots2
11Fouls8
2Offsides0
2Goalkeeper Saves7
665Total Passes360
596Passes Accurate284
90%Pass Accuracy79%

Team Comparison

TolucaToluca
FC JuarezFC Juarez
1745Elo Rating 1483
1.68Attack 0.58
1.16Defense 1.08
0%Hit Rate 0%
22.1Shots per Game 12.8
6.4Shots on Target 3.5
10.1Corners per Game 6.8
1.8Cards per Game 3.5

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+262 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.56 goals
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

TolucaToluca
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 67% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
FC JuarezFC Juarez
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 67% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

TolucaToluca6Wins · 60%
Draws330%
FC JuarezFC Juarez1Wins · 10%
3.1Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10

Previous meetings

Liga MX09/03/2026
TolucaFC Juarez
31
Liga MX30/11/2025
TolucaFC Juarez
00
Liga MX27/11/2025
FC JuarezToluca
12
Liga MX12/08/2025
FC JuarezToluca
02
Liga MX23/02/2025
FC JuarezToluca
04
Liga MX14/07/2024
TolucaFC Juarez
32
Liga MX09/03/2024
FC JuarezToluca
11
Liga MX16/07/2023
TolucaFC Juarez
24
Liga MX23/04/2023
TolucaFC Juarez
11
Liga MX09/10/2022
TolucaFC Juarez
30

Recent Form

TolucaToluca
6W1D3L
27/08/2026
TolucaAustin
20
W
22/08/2026
Club QueretaroToluca
12
W
16/08/2026
Atlante FCToluca
00
D
13/08/2026
TolucaFC Dallas
31
W
09/08/2026
TolucaLos Angeles FC
01
L
06/08/2026
TolucaSeattle Sounders
30
W
03/08/2026
TolucaNecaxa
31
W
26/07/2026
TolucaCruz Azul
13
L
22/07/2026
TolucaU.N.A.M. - Pumas
12
L
19/07/2026
Guadalajara ChivasToluca
02
W
FC JuarezFC Juarez
3W1D6L
22/08/2026
FC JuarezClub America
12
L
16/08/2026
MonterreyFC Juarez
61
L
12/08/2026
Real Salt LakeFC Juarez
30
L
08/08/2026
Vancouver WhitecapsFC Juarez
13
W
05/08/2026
Minnesota United FCFC Juarez
12
W
01/08/2026
FC JuarezU.N.A.M. - Pumas
15
L
26/07/2026
Guadalajara ChivasFC Juarez
10
L
18/07/2026
FC JuarezPuebla
01
L
10/07/2026
Colorado RapidsFC Juarez
11
D
04/07/2026
Mineros de ZacatecasFC Juarez
13
W

Referee Profile

Abraham de Jesus Quirarte Contreras77 matches

5.65Cards per match
5.17Yellow cards per match
0.48Red cards per match
22.6Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Abraham de Jesus Quirarte Contreras5.65
Other referees4.69

5.65 cards a match, 0.96 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.69).

Cards come from 23 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Liga MX 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Club AmericaClub America1585236:21+1529DDLWW
2Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas1585225:14+1129WWWDD
3Cruz AzulCruz Azul1592434:24+1029WWWWD
4AtlasAtlas1583426:26027WWLWD
5TolucaToluca1566331:21+1024DDDDL
6Club TijuanaClub Tijuana1557325:21+422DDWDD
7LeonLeon1564522:20+222LDWLD
8Santos LagunaSantos Laguna1571721:20+122WLWWW
9MonterreyMonterrey1463526:21+521DLWWD
10U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas1555522:24-220WDLWD
11Club QueretaroClub Queretaro1462618:21-320LLLLW
12CF PachucaCF Pachuca1554625:19+619WWLLD
13Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis1554619:23-419LWWDL
14PueblaPuebla1544717:23-616LLLDD
15Tigres UANLTigres UANL1536615:22-715LDLDW
16Atlante FCAtlante FC1535716:24-814LLWLL
17NecaxaNecaxa1524916:28-1210LDLLD
18FC JuarezFC Juarez15221112:34-228WDLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1Club AmericaClub America1536:2129
2Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas1525:1429
3Cruz AzulCruz Azul1534:2429
4AtlasAtlas1526:2627
5TolucaToluca1531:2124
6Club TijuanaClub Tijuana1525:2122
7LeonLeon1522:2022
8Santos LagunaSantos Laguna1521:2022
9MonterreyMonterrey1426:2121
10U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas1522:2420
11Club QueretaroClub Queretaro1418:2120
12CF PachucaCF Pachuca1525:1919
13Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis1519:2319
14PueblaPuebla1517:2316
15Tigres UANLTigres UANL1515:2215
16Atlante FCAtlante FC1516:2414
17NecaxaNecaxa1516:2810
18FC JuarezFC Juarez1512:348
Promotion

About the Toluca vs FC Juarez forecast

The forecasts for this Liga MX match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Toluca and FC Juarez in the Liga MX table

In the Liga MX table, Toluca are 5th and FC Juarez 18th, 16 points apart. League goal record so far: Toluca 31-21, FC Juarez 12-34. The full standings are on the Liga MX Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.