Toluca vs Necaxa Prediction
Mexico · Apertura - 3
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Toluca vs Necaxa: the result in context
Toluca beat Necaxa 3-1 in the Liga MX on 3 Aug 2026. That went against recent form: Necaxa had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Toluca.
Toluca have had the better of this fixture, winning 8 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 3.3 goals a game. Toluca tend to win more corners, 10.1 a game to 5.9 for Necaxa.
Match Forecasts
Match Events
Lineups
Toluca
Avg ratingAvg rating
22L. García
19S. Simón
6F. Pereira
25E. López
20J. Gallardo
29J. Díaz
5F. Romero
10J. Ricardo Angulo
35É. Gutiérrez
C9A. Vega
21I. López
12L. Jimenez
99E. Rodriguez
33R. Martínez
C4A. Peña
3A. Oliveros
88C. Vargas
8L. Faravelli
6D. Leyva
10J. Ruiz
11J. Torres
9J. CarranzaToluca Substitutes
Necaxa Substitutes
Match Stats
TolucaNecaxa Team Comparison
TolucaNecaxaAI Insights
Game State Tendencies
Toluca- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 67% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.4 in first half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Necaxa- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.9 vs 0.2 in second half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Toluca8Wins · 80%0Wins · 0%Previous meetings
22/02/2026NecaxaToluca13/07/2025TolucaNecaxa09/03/2025TolucaNecaxa28/10/2024NecaxaToluca11/02/2024NecaxaToluca02/07/2023TolucaNecaxa30/04/2023TolucaNecaxa
27/12/2022TolucaNecaxa03/07/2022NecaxaToluca05/03/2022NecaxaTolucaRecent Form
TolucaToluca
Cruz AzulToluca
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Guadalajara ChivasToluca
Atlante FCToluca
CancúnTolucaToluca
Tigres UANL
CF PachucaTolucaToluca
Los Angeles FCTolucaCF PachucaLos Angeles FCTolucaNecaxaNecaxa
MonterreyNecaxaAtlante FC
AtlasNecaxa
Correcaminos UatNecaxaNecaxa
MonarcasCruz AzulNecaxaNecaxaGuadalajara ChivasNecaxaTigres UANL
Club QueretaroNecaxaNecaxa
MazatlánReferee Profile
Compared with other referees
5.06 cards a match, 0.41 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.65).
Cards come from 62 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guadalajara Chivas | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 25:14 | +11 | 29 | WWWDD |
| 2 |  Club America | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 34:19 | +15 | 28 | DLWWD |
| 3 | Atlas | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 26:26 | 0 | 27 | WWLWD |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 32:23 | +9 | 26 | WWWDD |
| 5 | Toluca | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 29:19 | +10 | 23 | DDDLD |
| 6 |  Club Tijuana | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 25:21 | +4 | 22 | DDWDD |
| 7 |  Leon | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 21:18 | +3 | 22 | DWLDW |
| 8 | Monterrey | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 26:21 | +5 | 21 | DLWWD |
| 9 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22:24 | -2 | 20 | WDLWD |
| 10 | Club Queretaro | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 18:21 | -3 | 20 | LLLLW |
| 11 | CF Pachuca | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 25:19 | +6 | 19 | WWLLD |
| 12 |  Santos Laguna | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 20:20 | 0 | 19 | LWWWW |
| 13 |  Atletico San Luis | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 19:23 | -4 | 19 | LWWDL |
| 14 |  Puebla | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 17:23 | -6 | 16 | LLLDD |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 15:22 | -7 | 15 | LDLDW |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 16:24 | -8 | 14 | LLWLL |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16:27 | -11 | 10 | DLLDL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 12:34 | -22 | 8 | WDLLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guadalajara Chivas | 15 | 25:14 | 29 |
| 2 | Club America | 14 | 34:19 | 28 |
| 3 | Atlas | 15 | 26:26 | 27 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 14 | 32:23 | 26 |
| 5 | Toluca | 14 | 29:19 | 23 |
| 6 | Club Tijuana | 15 | 25:21 | 22 |
| 7 | Leon | 14 | 21:18 | 22 |
| 8 | Monterrey | 14 | 26:21 | 21 |
| 9 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 15 | 22:24 | 20 |
| 10 | Club Queretaro | 14 | 18:21 | 20 |
| 11 | CF Pachuca | 15 | 25:19 | 19 |
| 12 | Santos Laguna | 14 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 13 | Atletico San Luis | 15 | 19:23 | 19 |
| 14 | Puebla | 15 | 17:23 | 16 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 15 | 15:22 | 15 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 15 | 16:24 | 14 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 16:27 | 10 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 15 | 12:34 | 8 |
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About the Toluca vs Necaxa forecast
The forecasts for this Liga MX match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Toluca and Necaxa in the Liga MX table
In the Liga MX table, Toluca are 5th and Necaxa 17th, 13 points apart. League goal record so far: Toluca 29-19, Necaxa 16-27. The full standings are on the Liga MX Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.