Toluca vs Atletico San Luis Prediction

Toluca
1-1
Finished
HT 0-0
Atletico San Luis
Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca·Marco Antonio Ortiz Nava 18/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
72%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.31
SignalGOODModel76%SurpriseMediumGap-4.1%
Value Analysis
76%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.31
SignalHIGHModel76%SurpriseMediumGap+3.0%
Toluca Rest
7 days
Atletico San Luis Rest
6 days

Toluca vs Atletico San Luis: result, form and history

Toluca and Atletico San Luis drew 1-1 in the Liga MX on 18 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Toluca have had the better of this fixture, winning 7 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.7 goals a game. Toluca tend to win more corners, 10.9 a game to 3.4 for Atletico San Luis.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
69%1.31
X
19%5.40
2
12%7.53
Double Chance
1X
88%1.07
X2
31%3.16
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%1.62
No
42%2.15
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.36 + 1 = 3.36
Over 1.5
86%1.10
Over 2.5
67%1.40
Over 3.5
46%1.99
Under 1.5
14%6.50
Under 2.5
33%2.87
Under 3.5
54%1.77
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.6 + 3.9 = 10.5
Over 8.5
70%1.36
Over 9.5
58%1.73
Over 10.5
47%2.12
Under 8.5
30%2.79
Under 9.5
42%2.06
Under 10.5
53%1.65
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 2.3 = 4
Over 3.5
57%-
Over 4.5
37%1.80
Under 3.5
43%-
Under 4.5
63%1.91

Match Events

67'Érick Gutiérrez
73'Rafael Llorente
83'Rafael Llorente INLeonardo Flores out
83'Anderson Duarte INJuanpe out
87'David Rodriguez INMiguel García out
88'Sebastien Salles-lamonge INBenjamín Galdames out

Lineups

Toluca
4-2-3-1Coach: A. Mohamed
Atletico San Luis
3-4-3Coach: Diego Mejía
Avg rating6.50
Avg rating6.45
H. González6.11H. González
S. Simón6.519S. Simón
E. López6.925E. López
F. Pereira6.56F. Pereira
J. Gallardo6.820J. Gallardo
F. Romero6.45F. Romero
É. Gutiérrez7.535É. Gutiérrez
Helinho6.411Helinho
F. Viñas6.016F. Viñas
A. Vega6.39A. Vega
Paulinho6.426Paulinho
G. Lajud6.125G. Lajud
Robson Bambu6.63R. Bambu
E.  Águila6.731E. Águila
A. Cruz6.418A. Cruz
R. Torres6.02R. Torres
Ó. Macías6.621Ó. Macías
S. Salles-Lamonge6.810S. Salles-Lamonge
R. Meraz6.15R. Meraz
D. Rodríguez6.811D. Rodríguez
A. Duarte6.217A. Duarte
Rafa Llorente7.022R. Llorente

Toluca Substitutes

15P. Pérez
8N. Castro
2D. Barbosa
24F. Arce
10J. Angulo
29J. Díaz
13Luan
17B. García
22L. García
4B. Méndez

Atletico San Luis Substitutes

20L. Flores83'for Rafael Llorente6.5
7B. Galdames88'for Sebastien Salles-lamonge6.4
30B. Galindo
14M. García87'for David Rodriguez6.4
99F. Mora
19S. Muñóz
26S. Pérez Bouquet
6Juanpe83'for Anderson Duarte6.5
1A. Sánchez
13J. Caicedo

Match Stats

TolucaAtletico San Luis
55%Ball Possession45%
15Corner Kicks2
1Red Cards0
29Total Shots15
7Shots on Goal5
11Shots off Goal9
20Shots Inside Box10
9Shots Outside Box5
11Blocked Shots1
9Fouls7
2Offsides2
4Goalkeeper Saves6
615Total Passes262
537Passes Accurate195
7Free Kicks9

Team Comparison

TolucaToluca
Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis
1746Elo Rating 1605
1.94Attack 1.51
0.73Defense 1.96
0%Hit Rate 64%
24.9Shots per Game 11.8
7.2Shots on Target 4.5
10.9Corners per Game 3.4
1.5Cards per Game 0.6

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+141 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.36 goals
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

TolucaToluca
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 67% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.5 vs 0.5 in first half)
Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

TolucaToluca7Wins · 70%
Draws110%
Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis2Wins · 20%
2.7Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
50%3+ goals5 of 10

Previous meetings

Liga MX13/04/2026
TolucaAtletico San Luis
11
Liga MX30/08/2025
Atletico San LuisToluca
13
Liga MX17/04/2025
Atletico San LuisToluca
01
Liga MX25/08/2024
TolucaAtletico San Luis
21
Liga MX20/04/2024
Atletico San LuisToluca
15
Liga MX29/10/2023
TolucaAtletico San Luis
31
Liga MX26/02/2023
TolucaAtletico San Luis
20
Liga MX22/08/2022
Atletico San LuisToluca
10
Liga MX13/02/2022
Atletico San LuisToluca
01
Liga MX26/09/2021
TolucaAtletico San Luis
12

Referee Profile

Marco Antonio Ortiz Nava204 matches

4.70Cards per match
4.35Yellow cards per match
0.35Red cards per match
24.6Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Marco Antonio Ortiz Nava4.70
Other referees4.57

4.70 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.57).

Cards come from 192 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Liga MX 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Club AmericaClub America1383233:18+1527LWWDW
2Cruz AzulCruz Azul1482432:23+926WWWDD
3Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas1475221:12+926WWDDL
4AtlasAtlas1473425:26-124WLWDW
5TolucaToluca1465329:19+1023DDDLD
6Club LeonClub Leon1464421:18+322WDLWD
7MonterreyMonterrey1362523:18+520LWWDL
8Club TijuanaClub Tijuana1355321:17+420WDDDL
9Club QueretaroClub Queretaro1362517:18-120LLLWW
10Santos LagunaSantos Laguna1461720:20019LWWWW
11Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis1454519:22-319WWDLW
12U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas1445520:23-317DLWDL
13CF PachucaCF Pachuca1444622:19+316WLLDL
14PueblaPuebla1444616:21-516LLDDL
15Tigres UANLTigres UANL1436515:19-415DLDWW
16Atlante FCAtlante FC1435614:20-614LWLLW
17NecaxaNecaxa1424816:27-1110DLLDL
18FC JuarezFC Juarez1412119:33-245DLLDL
#TeamMPGPts
1Club AmericaClub America1333:1827
2Cruz AzulCruz Azul1432:2326
3Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas1421:1226
4AtlasAtlas1425:2624
5TolucaToluca1429:1923
6Club LeonClub Leon1421:1822
7MonterreyMonterrey1323:1820
8Club TijuanaClub Tijuana1321:1720
9Club QueretaroClub Queretaro1317:1820
10Santos LagunaSantos Laguna1420:2019
11Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis1419:2219
12U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas1420:2317
13CF PachucaCF Pachuca1422:1916
14PueblaPuebla1416:2116
15Tigres UANLTigres UANL1415:1915
16Atlante FCAtlante FC1414:2014
17NecaxaNecaxa1416:2710
18FC JuarezFC Juarez149:335
Promotion

About the Toluca vs Atletico San Luis forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Toluca and Atletico San Luis in the Liga MX table

In the Liga MX table, Toluca are 5th and Atletico San Luis 11th, 4 points apart. League goal record so far: Toluca 29-19, Atletico San Luis 19-22. The full standings are on the Liga MX Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.