Mexico · Apertura - 8
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Toluca vs Atlas: the result in context
Toluca beat Atlas 5-2 in the Liga MX on 13 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: Toluca had won 5 of their previous five, compared with 3 for Atlas.
Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.8 goals, with both teams scoring in 6 of them. Toluca tend to win more corners, 10.9 a game to 8.1 for Atlas.
Match Forecasts
Match Events
Lineups
Toluca
Avg ratingAvg rating
12R. Beltrán
2D. Barbosa
4B. Méndez
6F. Pereira
20J. Gallardo
5F. Romero
10J. Angulo
11Helinho
8N. Castro
9A. Vega
16F. Viñas
12C. Vargas
3J. Sánchez
13G. Aguirre
28M. Capasso
16M. Valenzuela
5J. Rodríguez
58A. González
15P. Ramírez
10L. Esteves
9F. Monzón
27V. RÃosToluca Substitutes
Atlas Substitutes
Match Stats
TolucaAtlas Team Comparison
TolucaAtlasAI Insights
Game State Tendencies
Toluca- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 67% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.5 vs 0.5 in first half)
Atlas- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.5 in first half)
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Toluca4Wins · 40%1Wins · 10%Previous meetings
15/03/2026TolucaAtlas02/11/2025AtlasToluca13/04/2025AtlasToluca29/09/2024TolucaAtlas07/04/2024TolucaAtlas27/08/2023AtlasToluca02/02/2023AtlasToluca10/07/2022TolucaAtlas24/04/2022TolucaAtlas22/08/2021AtlasTolucaRecent Form
TolucaToluca
MonterreyToluca
LeonToluca
FC JuarezToluca
Austin
Club QueretaroToluca
Atlante FCTolucaToluca
FC DallasToluca
Los Angeles FCToluca
Seattle SoundersToluca
NecaxaAtlasAtlasAtlante FCAtlasClub Queretaro
Cruz AzulAtlasAtlas
Tigres UANL
FC CincinnatiAtlas
CharlotteAtlas
Columbus CrewAtlasAtlasMonterrey
Santos LagunaAtlasLeonAtlasLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 33:18 | +15 | 27 | LWWDW |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 32:23 | +9 | 26 | WWWDD |
| 3 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21:12 | +9 | 26 | WWDDL |
| 4 | Atlas | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 25:26 | -1 | 24 | WLWDW |
| 5 | Toluca | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 29:19 | +10 | 23 | DDDLD |
| 6 |  Club Leon | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 21:18 | +3 | 22 | WDLWD |
| 7 | Monterrey | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 23:18 | +5 | 20 | LWWDL |
| 8 |  Club Tijuana | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 21:17 | +4 | 20 | WDDDL |
| 9 | Club Queretaro | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 17:18 | -1 | 20 | LLLWW |
| 10 | Santos Laguna | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 20:20 | 0 | 19 | LWWWW |
| 11 |  Atletico San Luis | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 19:22 | -3 | 19 | WWDLW |
| 12 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 20:23 | -3 | 17 | DLWDL |
| 13 |  CF Pachuca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 22:19 | +3 | 16 | WLLDL |
| 14 |  Puebla | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16:21 | -5 | 16 | LLDDL |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 15:19 | -4 | 15 | DLDWW |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 14:20 | -6 | 14 | LWLLW |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16:27 | -11 | 10 | DLLDL |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9:33 | -24 | 5 | DLLDL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 13 | 33:18 | 27 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 14 | 32:23 | 26 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | 21:12 | 26 |
| 4 | Atlas | 14 | 25:26 | 24 |
| 5 | Toluca | 14 | 29:19 | 23 |
| 6 | Club Leon | 14 | 21:18 | 22 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 13 | 23:18 | 20 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 13 | 21:17 | 20 |
| 9 | Club Queretaro | 13 | 17:18 | 20 |
| 10 | Santos Laguna | 14 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 11 | Atletico San Luis | 14 | 19:22 | 19 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 14 | 20:23 | 17 |
| 13 | CF Pachuca | 14 | 22:19 | 16 |
| 14 | Puebla | 14 | 16:21 | 16 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 14 | 15:19 | 15 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 14 | 14:20 | 14 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 16:27 | 10 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 14 | 9:33 | 5 |
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About the Toluca vs Atlas forecast
The forecasts for this Liga MX match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Toluca and Atlas in the Liga MX table
Atlas and Toluca are close in the Liga MX table, 4th and 5th, with 1 point between them. League goal record so far: Toluca 29-19, Atlas 25-26. The full standings are on the Liga MX Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.