Necaxa vs Puebla Prediction
Mexico · Apertura - 8
Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes 12/09/2026
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
74%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.29
SignalGOODModel48%SurpriseMediumGap-2.9%
Value Analysis
65%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.80
SignalSOLIDModel65%SurpriseMediumGap+10.8%
Necaxa Rest
6 days
Puebla Rest
12 days
Match Forecasts
Match Result
150%2.01
X25%3.55
225%3.40
Double Chance
1X75%1.29
X250%1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes58%1.60
No42%2.22
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.51 + 1.11 = 2.62
Over 1.574%1.20
Over 2.556%1.70
Over 3.534%2.70
Under 1.526%4.05
Under 2.544%2.12
Under 3.566%1.44
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.1 + 4.5 = 10.5
Over 8.565%1.48
Over 9.553%1.83
Over 10.540%2.29
Under 8.535%2.41
Under 9.547%1.84
Under 10.560%1.52
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2 = 3.9
Over 3.554%1.47
Over 4.535%1.85
Under 3.546%2.45
Under 4.565%1.80
Match Events
45'Owen González INKevin Ante out
45'Mauro Zaleta INMiguel Rodriguez out
45'Omar Moreno INIgnacio Maestro out
45'Fernando Monarrez INOscar Villa out
45+1'Juan Pablo VargasArgument
45+1'Raúl MartínezArgument
45+1'Fernando MonarrezArgument
49'Carlos BaltazarFoul
62'Kevin Velasco INMathías Adrián Tomás Borges out
68'Matias Espindola INJuan Torres out
75'Lorenzo Faravelli INDanny Leyva out
81'Brayan Garnica INLucas Camilo Azevedo da Silva out
86'Pedro Pedraza INJuan Valencia out
89'Carlos Baltazar INJosé Pachuca out
90+3'Mathías Adrián Tomás BorgesAssist: Alejandro Organista
Lineups
NecaxaPuebla
4-2-3-1Coach: Gerardo EspinozaAvg ratingAvg rating
12L. Jiménez
33R. Martínez
5K. Naves
3A. Oliveros
13O. de Jesús González Ojeda
16P. Pedraza
8L. Faravelli
14M. Zaleta
21M. Espíndola
10J. Ruiz
9J. Carranza
28R. Gutiérrez
12I. Moreno
5F. Almada
4J. Vargas
7F. Monárrez
24A. Organista
21S. Sanabria
27B. Garnica
26K. Velasco
22C. Baltazar
8O. MorenoNecaxa Substitutes
7K. Rosero45'for Owen González
1C. Andrade
88C. Vargas
17R. Cortéz
6D. Leyva75'for Lorenzo Faravelli
20F. Méndez
4A. Peña
99M. Rodríguez45'for Mauro Zaleta
11J. Torres68'for Matias Espindola
90J. Valencia86'for Pedro Pedraza
Puebla Substitutes
34Lucas Camilo81'for Brayan Garnica
3A. Herrera
2Á. Leyva
19I. Maestro Puch45'for Omar Moreno
20J. Pachuca89'for Carlos Baltazar
16A. Ramírez
33J. Rodríguez
10M. Tomás62'for Kevin Velasco90+3'
15Ó. Villa45'for Fernando Monarrez
195Alvaro Burgos
Match Stats
NecaxaPuebla 56%Ball Possession44%
8Corner Kicks5
1Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
9Total Shots12
2Shots on Goal4
5Shots off Goal5
7Shots Inside Box7
2Shots Outside Box5
2Blocked Shots3
11Fouls12
1Offsides0
3Goalkeeper Saves2
429Total Passes340
372Passes Accurate281
87%Pass Accuracy83%
Team Comparison
NecaxaPuebla1482Elo Rating 1492
1.05Attack 0.61
1.05Defense 1.42
0%Hit Rate 0%
15.5Shots per Game 11.8
5.7Shots on Target 3.7
5.9Corners per Game 3.2
2.0Cards per Game 1.0
AI Insights
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Necaxa- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.9 vs 0.2 in second half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Puebla- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 67% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0 in first half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Necaxa5Wins · 50%Draws330%
Puebla2Wins · 20%
2Wins · 20%2.1Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10
Previous meetings
14/03/2026PueblaNecaxa00
20/09/2025NecaxaPuebla10
19/04/2025PueblaNecaxa01
14/07/2024NecaxaPuebla41
20/01/2024PueblaNecaxa12
09/10/2023NecaxaPuebla12
15/04/2023NecaxaPuebla11
17/08/2022PueblaNecaxa22
23/04/2022PueblaNecaxa01
16/10/2021NecaxaPuebla01
Recent Form
Necaxa3W2D5L
06/09/2026
Tigres UANLNecaxa
29/08/2026Tigres UANLNecaxa11
DNecaxa
Cruz Azul13
L24/08/2026
U.N.A.M. - PumasNecaxa11
D18/08/2026Necaxa
Leon
NecaxaLeon12
L14/08/2026
New York City FCNecaxa
New York City FCNecaxa12
W10/08/2026
Philadelphia UnionNecaxa
Philadelphia UnionNecaxa31
L07/08/2026
Chicago FireNecaxa
03/08/2026Chicago FireNecaxa20
L
TolucaNecaxa31
L27/07/2026Necaxa
Monterrey21
W17/07/2026Necaxa
Atlante FC21
WPuebla4W1D5L
30/08/2026
Club AmericaPueblaPuebla
Santos Laguna
CF PachucaPueblaPuebla
Guadalajara Chivas
FC JuarezPuebla
Club AmericaPuebla20
L23/08/2026PueblaSantos Laguna32
W18/08/2026CF PachucaPuebla23
W13/08/2026
San DiegoPuebla
San DiegoPuebla32
L10/08/2026
AustinPuebla
AustinPuebla30
L07/08/2026
Portland TimbersPuebla
01/08/2026Portland TimbersPuebla52
LPueblaGuadalajara Chivas11
D22/07/2026Cruz AzulPuebla
18/07/2026Cruz AzulPuebla21
LFC JuarezPuebla01
W10/07/2026
AtlasPuebla
AtlasPuebla34
WLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 33:18 | +15 | 27 | LWWDW |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 32:23 | +9 | 26 | WWWDD |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21:12 | +9 | 26 | WWDDL |
| 4 | Atlas | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 25:26 | -1 | 24 | WLWDW |
| 5 | Toluca | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 29:19 | +10 | 23 | DDDLD |
| 6 |  Club Leon | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 21:18 | +3 | 22 | WDLWD |
| 7 | Monterrey | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 23:18 | +5 | 20 | LWWDL |
| 8 |  Club Tijuana | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 21:17 | +4 | 20 | WDDDL |
| 9 |  Club Queretaro | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 17:18 | -1 | 20 | LLLWW |
| 10 | Santos Laguna | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 20:20 | 0 | 19 | LWWWW |
| 11 |  Atletico San Luis | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 19:22 | -3 | 19 | WWDLW |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 20:23 | -3 | 17 | DLWDL |
| 13 | CF Pachuca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 22:19 | +3 | 16 | WLLDL |
| 14 | Puebla | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16:21 | -5 | 16 | LLDDL |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 15:19 | -4 | 15 | DLDWW |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 14:20 | -6 | 14 | LWLLW |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16:27 | -11 | 10 | DLLDL |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9:33 | -24 | 5 | DLLDL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 13 | 33:18 | 27 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 14 | 32:23 | 26 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | 21:12 | 26 |
| 4 | Atlas | 14 | 25:26 | 24 |
| 5 | Toluca | 14 | 29:19 | 23 |
| 6 | Club Leon | 14 | 21:18 | 22 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 13 | 23:18 | 20 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 13 | 21:17 | 20 |
| 9 | Club Queretaro | 13 | 17:18 | 20 |
| 10 | Santos Laguna | 14 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 11 | Atletico San Luis | 14 | 19:22 | 19 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 14 | 20:23 | 17 |
| 13 | CF Pachuca | 14 | 22:19 | 16 |
| 14 | Puebla | 14 | 16:21 | 16 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 14 | 15:19 | 15 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 14 | 14:20 | 14 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 16:27 | 10 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 14 | 9:33 | 5 |
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About the Necaxa vs Puebla forecast
Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Necaxa and Puebla in the Liga MX table
In the Liga MX table, Puebla are 14th and Necaxa 17th, 6 points apart. League goal record so far: Necaxa 16-27, Puebla 16-21. The full standings are on the Liga MX Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.