Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas Prediction
Colombia · Clausura - 15
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
74%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.25
SignalGOODModel48%SurpriseMediumGap-6.3%
Independiente Medellin Rest
2 days
Once Caldas Rest
8 days
Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas: the result in context
Once Caldas beat Independiente Medellin 2-0 in the Primera A on 18 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.2 a game across 10 meetings, with both teams scoring in 8. Referee Steven Camargo averages 6.85 cards a game, 0.99 more than other referees in the same competitions.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
149%1.95
X27%3.39
224%3.76
Double Chance
1X75%1.25
X251%1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes54%1.73
No46%2.00
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.51 + 1.1 = 2.61
Over 1.574%1.29
Over 2.551%1.90
Over 3.530%3.23
Under 1.526%3.40
Under 2.549%1.87
Under 3.570%1.33
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.4 + 4.2 = 9.5
Over 8.560%1.57
Over 9.548%1.96
Over 10.536%2.53
Under 8.540%2.22
Under 9.552%1.75
Under 10.564%1.42
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.6 + 3 = 5.6
Over 3.581%-
Over 4.566%-
Under 3.519%-
Under 4.534%-
Match Events
17'Jorge CardonaFoul
21'Andres ColoradoFoul
35'Jefry ZapataAssist: Juan Patiño
45'Hayen Palacios INKeiner David Klinger Vasquez out
45'Didier Moreno INDiego Moreno out
53'Luis EscorciaFoul
57'Juan Pablo NietoFoul
64'John Montano INNivaldo Erazo out
64'Yony González INCarlos Alberto Lucumi Gonzalez out
65'Michael BarriosAssist: Jefry Zapata
79'Jefry Zapata INDayro Moreno out
79'Michael Barrios INEdwin Torres out
81'Halam Stiven Loboa DiazFoul
82'Keiner David Klinger VasquezFoul
90'Jader Quinones INJaime Alvarado out
90+3'Felipe Gomez INHelieyker Guzman out
Lineups
Independiente MedellinOnce Caldas
4-2-3-1Coach: H. HerreraAvg ratingAvg rating
1S. Ichazo
30H. Palacios
39L. Escorcia
5J. Varela
18F. Fabra
16H. Loboa
6D. Moreno
26E. Mena
21A. Martegani
20J. Montaño
11Y. González
99J. Parra
22J. Cuesta
2J. Cardona
30D. Londoño
33J. Patiño
5J. Nieto
9P. Gómez
7M. Barrios
42J. Quiñónes
23A. Colorado
14J. ZapataIndependiente Medellin Substitutes
90E. Larrosa
32C. Lucumi64'for Yony González
4K. Mantilla
31D. Moreno45'for Didier Moreno
14B. Perlaza
34K. Klinger45'for Hayen Palacios82'
24N. Erazo64'for John Montano
25E. Chaux
10D. Cataño
Once Caldas Substitutes
15J. Alvarado90'for Jader Quinones
12J. Camargo
16J. Castaño
20A. Roa
29E. Torres79'for Michael Barrios
19T. García
21H. Guzman90+3'for Felipe Gomez
17D. Moreno79'for Jefry Zapata
18J. Riquett
Match Stats
Independiente MedellinOnce Caldas 51%Ball Possession49%
2Corner Kicks3
3Yellow Cards3
9Total Shots11
3Shots on Goal5
4Shots off Goal5
4Shots Inside Box4
5Shots Outside Box7
2Blocked Shots1
18Fouls5
1Offsides2
3Goalkeeper Saves3
376Total Passes370
303Passes Accurate288
5Free Kicks15
Team Comparison
Independiente MedellinOnce Caldas1556Elo Rating 1611
1.11Attack 1.17
0.71Defense 2.58
14%Hit Rate 58%
12.6Shots per Game 19.9
3.8Shots on Target 7.1
7.1Corners per Game 6.7
3.0Cards per Game 2.9
AI Insights
📈BTTS Trend80% in H2H
📉Away Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Independiente Medellin- Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.4 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Once Caldas- Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.2 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Independiente Medellin4Wins · 40%Draws440%
Once Caldas2Wins · 20%
2Wins · 20%3.2Avg Goals
80%Both teams scored8 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10
Previous meetings
03/04/2026Once CaldasIndependiente Medellin11
14/10/2025Once CaldasIndependiente Medellin15
20/04/2025Independiente MedellinOnce Caldas20
28/09/2024Once CaldasIndependiente Medellin02
17/03/2024Independiente MedellinOnce Caldas12
01/10/2023Once CaldasIndependiente Medellin22
12/05/2023Independiente MedellinOnce Caldas22
24/07/2022Independiente MedellinOnce Caldas11
05/02/2022Once CaldasIndependiente Medellin21
18/09/2021Independiente MedellinOnce Caldas31
Recent Form
Independiente Medellin4W2D4L
15/10/2026
Atletico NacionalIndependiente Medellin
America de CaliIndependiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin
Santa FeIndependiente Medellin
MillonariosIndependiente Medellin
Jaguares
BucaramangaIndependiente Medellin
Atletico NacionalIndependiente Medellin32
L12/10/2026America de CaliIndependiente Medellin12
W06/10/2026Independiente MedellinSanta Fe01
L30/09/2026Independiente MedellinMillonarios22
D27/09/2026
JuniorIndependiente Medellin
23/09/2026JuniorIndependiente Medellin20
LIndependiente MedellinJaguares21
W18/09/2026BucaramangaIndependiente Medellin22
D13/09/2026
ChicoIndependiente Medellin
ChicoIndependiente Medellin21
L10/09/2026
Deportivo PastoIndependiente Medellin
Deportivo PastoIndependiente Medellin14
W04/09/2026
Deportivo PereiraIndependiente Medellin
Deportivo PereiraIndependiente Medellin03
WOnce Caldas4W2D4L
10/10/2026Once Caldas
LlanerosOnce CaldasBucaramangaDeportivo PastoOnce CaldasOnce Caldas
Deportivo CaliOnce Caldas
Alianza ValleduparChicoOnce Caldas
Fortaleza FCOnce CaldasJuniorOnce Caldas
Once CaldasLlaneros10
W04/10/2026
Internacional de BogotaOnce Caldas
26/09/2026Internacional de BogotaOnce Caldas11
DOnce CaldasBucaramanga13
L20/09/2026Deportivo PastoOnce Caldas10
L17/09/2026Once Caldas
Deportes Tolima
14/09/2026Once CaldasDeportes Tolima10
WOnce CaldasDeportivo Cali12
L10/09/2026Once CaldasAlianza Valledupar10
W05/09/2026ChicoOnce Caldas20
L02/09/2026Fortaleza FCOnce Caldas12
W24/08/2026JuniorOnce Caldas11
DReferee Profile
6.85Cards per match
6.58Yellow cards per match
0.28Red cards per match
27.7Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
6.85 cards a match, 0.99 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.86).
Cards come from 40 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Apertura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 35:15 | +20 | 40 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 31:24 | +7 | 35 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 29:25 | +4 | 34 | WDLWW |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 25:15 | +10 | 33 | WLWLD |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 31:22 | +9 | 33 | WDDDL |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 27:17 | +10 | 31 | LDWWD |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29:22 | +7 | 29 | DDLWW |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 26:26 | 0 | 28 | LWDLL |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20:16 | +4 | 27 | LDWWL |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 31:23 | +8 | 26 | DLDWW |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26:24 | +2 | 26 | WLDWL |
| 12 |  Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 20:25 | -5 | 26 | LWLWD |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 26:20 | +6 | 23 | WLLLL |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 17:20 | -3 | 22 | LDWDD |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22:27 | -5 | 22 | WDDLL |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 20:33 | -13 | 18 | LWLDL |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 13:27 | -14 | 17 | LWDLW |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 15:32 | -17 | 17 | LWLWL |
| 19 |  Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22:35 | -13 | 16 | WDWDD |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 15:32 | -17 | 10 | DLLLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 35:15 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 31:24 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 29:25 | 34 |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 25:15 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 31:22 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 27:17 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 29:22 | 29 |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 26:26 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 20:16 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 31:23 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 26:24 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 20:25 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 26:20 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 17:20 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 22:27 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 20:33 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 13:27 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 15:32 | 17 |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 22:35 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 15:32 | 10 |
Clausura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 32:13 | +19 | 35 | WWDWW |
| 2 | America de Cali | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 31:12 | +19 | 34 | WLWLD |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 26:10 | +16 | 33 | LDWWL |
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 25:16 | +9 | 28 | WLLLL |
| 5 | Santa Fe | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 23:17 | +6 | 28 | DDLWW |
| 6 | Millonarios | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 24:14 | +10 | 26 | DLDWW |
| 7 | Once Caldas | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 21:18 | +3 | 24 | WDDDL |
| 8 | Independiente Medellin | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 23:24 | -1 | 23 | WLDWL |
| 9 | Águilas Doradas | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 21:20 | +1 | 22 | LWLWD |
| 10 | Cucuta | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 18:24 | -6 | 21 | WDWDD |
| 11 | Deportes Tolima | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 18:19 | -1 | 20 | LDWWD |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 21:23 | -2 | 20 | LWDLL |
| 13 | Llaneros | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 19:23 | -4 | 20 | LDWDD |
| 14 | Alianza Valledupar | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 16:27 | -11 | 18 | LWDLW |
| 15 | Deportivo Pereira | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 12:19 | -7 | 17 | DLLLD |
| 16 | Junior | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 23:27 | -4 | 16 | WWLWW |
| 17 | Chico | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 13:28 | -15 | 16 | LWLWL |
| 18 | Jaguares | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17:29 | -12 | 13 | LWLDL |
| 19 | Fortaleza FC | 16 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 17:24 | -7 | 12 | WDDLL |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 11:24 | -13 | 12 | WDLWW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 16 | 32:13 | 35 |
| 2 | America de Cali | 16 | 31:12 | 34 |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 17 | 26:10 | 33 |
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 16 | 25:16 | 28 |
| 5 | Santa Fe | 16 | 23:17 | 28 |
| 6 | Millonarios | 16 | 24:14 | 26 |
| 7 | Once Caldas | 17 | 21:18 | 24 |
| 8 | Independiente Medellin | 16 | 23:24 | 23 |
| 9 | Águilas Doradas | 16 | 21:20 | 22 |
| 10 | Cucuta | 16 | 18:24 | 21 |
| 11 | Deportes Tolima | 16 | 18:19 | 20 |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 17 | 21:23 | 20 |
| 13 | Llaneros | 17 | 19:23 | 20 |
| 14 | Alianza Valledupar | 16 | 16:27 | 18 |
| 15 | Deportivo Pereira | 16 | 12:19 | 17 |
| 16 | Junior | 17 | 23:27 | 16 |
| 17 | Chico | 17 | 13:28 | 16 |
| 18 | Jaguares | 16 | 17:29 | 13 |
| 19 | Fortaleza FC | 16 | 17:24 | 12 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 16 | 11:24 | 12 |
Explore more predictions
This match
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About the Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas forecast
The forecasts for this Primera A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Independiente Medellin and Once Caldas in the Primera A table
In the Primera A table, Once Caldas are 5th and Independiente Medellin 11th, 7 points apart. League goal record so far: Independiente Medellin 26-24, Once Caldas 31-22. The full standings are on the Primera A Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.