Lecce vs Monza Prediction

Lecce
3-2
Finished
HT 3-1
Monza
Via del Mare, Lecce·Valerio Crezzini, Italy 13/09/2026
LecceLecce
3-2
Finished
MonzaMonza

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
74%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.41
SignalHIGHModel74%SurpriseMediumGap+4.7%
Lecce Rest
5 days
Monza Rest
7 days

Lecce vs Monza: the result in context

Lecce beat Monza 3-2 in the Serie A on 13 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their history points to a close game: 10 previous meetings produced 1.5 goals a game. Referee Valerio Crezzini averages 3.75 cards a game, 0.72 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
38%2.75
X
32%3.10
2
30%2.76
Double Chance
1X
70%1.41
X2
62%1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%1.85
No
52%1.87
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.22 + 1.16 = 2.38
Over 1.5
65%1.39
Over 2.5
42%2.24
Over 3.5
18%4.00
Under 1.5
35%2.88
Under 2.5
58%1.66
Under 3.5
82%1.22
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.2 + 4 = 9.2
Over 8.5
51%1.86
Over 9.5
43%2.40
Over 10.5
32%3.25
Under 8.5
49%1.90
Under 9.5
57%1.52
Under 10.5
68%1.30
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 1.6 = 3.4
Over 3.5
44%1.97
Over 4.5
26%2.79
Under 3.5
56%1.80
Under 4.5
74%1.41

Match Events

3'L. CoulibalyAssist: I. Ilic
10'Tiago GabrielAssist: I. Ilic
20'R. MangasAssist: S. Birindelli
21'L. CoulibalyAssist: D. Veiga
38'K. NdriTripping
46'R. Mangas INA. Bakoune out
46'K. Ndri INS. Pierotti out
64'J. Robinson INP. Cutrone out
64'A. Colpani INE. Zeballos out
66'I. Ilic INO. Ngom out
74'N. Stulic INP. Esteban out
74'J. Monteiro INA. Fatah out
75'G. Varela INO. Forson out
84'E. Akinsanmiro INM. Mout out
85'Y. Maleh INM. Kaba out
89'E. Zeballos
90'D. VeigaUnsportsmanlike conduct

Lineups

Lecce
4-3-3Coach: Eusebio Di Francesco
Monza
3-4-2-1Coach: Ivan Juric
Avg rating7.03
Avg rating6.63
Wladimiro FalconeC7.630W. Falcone
Danilo Veiga7.717D. Veiga
Jamil Siebert6.35J. Siebert
Tiago Gabriel7.644T. Gabriel
Antonino Gallo7.325A. Gallo
Lassana Coulibaly8.929L. Coulibaly
Ivan Ilić7.720I. Ilić
Youssef Maleh6.314Y. Maleh
N'Dri Konan6.211N. Konan
Nikola Štulić6.29N. Štulić
Joël Monteiro6.999J. Monteiro
Demba Thiam5.620D. Thiam
Eddy Kouadio6.260E. Kouadio
Lorenzo Lucchesi6.63L. Lucchesi
Andrea Carboni6.944A. Carboni
Samuele BirindelliC7.219S. Birindelli
Michael Folorunsho6.990M. Folorunsho
Ebenezer Akinsanmiro6.314E. Akinsanmiro
Ricardo Mangas7.37R. Mangas
Andrea Colpani6.528A. Colpani
Jay Robinson6.746J. Robinson
Gustavo Varela6.99G. Varela

Lecce Substitutes

50Santiago Pierotti46'for K. Ndri6.3
79Oumar Ngom66'for I. Ilic7.0
32Alexandru Borbei
1Marco Bleve
4Kialonda Gaspar
3Corrie Ndaba
18Gaby Jean
2Ali Dembélé
31Elijah Scott
77Mohamed Kaba85'for Y. Maleh
8Sadik Fofana
28Olaf Gorter
7Amar Fatah74'for J. Monteiro6.5
22Paco Esteban74'for N. Stulic6.9

Monza Substitutes

24Adam Bakoune46'for R. Mangas6.3
22Exequiel Zeballos64'for A. Colpani89'7.3
10Patrick Cutrone64'for J. Robinson6.5
1Noel Törnqvist
43Aljaz Strajnar
5Yvan Maye
2Saba Goglichidze
6Valentin Antov
8Manga Foe Ondoa
21Leonardo Colombo
80Mathis Mout84'for E. Akinsanmiro6.6
11Omari Forson75'for G. Varela6.3
47Dany Mota

Match Stats

LecceMonza
39%Ball Possession61%
4Corner Kicks6
2Yellow Cards0
7Total Shots19
3Shots on Goal11
3Shots off Goal5
6Shots Inside Box14
1Shots Outside Box5
1Blocked Shots3
14Fouls13
0Offsides4
8Goalkeeper Saves0
321Total Passes493
234Passes Accurate407
73%Pass Accuracy83%

Team Comparison

LecceLecce
MonzaMonza
1688Elo Rating 1698
1.53Attack 2.26
1.49Defense 1.02
44%Hit Rate 39%
12.7Shots per Game 13.0
5.6Shots on Target 5.9
5.3Corners per Game 4.7
1.6Cards per Game 1.3

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend40% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

LecceLecce
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1 vs 0.5 in second half)
MonzaMonza
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.9 vs 0.4 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

LecceLecce4Wins · 40%
Draws550%
MonzaMonza1Wins · 10%
1.5Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
20%3+ goals2 of 10

Previous meetings

Serie A16/02/2025
MonzaLecce
00
Serie A15/12/2024
LecceMonza
21
Serie A27/04/2024
LecceMonza
11
Serie A17/09/2023
MonzaLecce
11
Serie A28/05/2023
MonzaLecce
01
Serie A11/09/2022
LecceMonza
11
Serie B27/02/2022
MonzaLecce
01
Serie B01/10/2021
LecceMonza
30
Serie B04/05/2021
MonzaLecce
10
Serie B04/01/2021
LecceMonza
00

Recent Form

LecceLecce
4W1D5L
07/09/2026
CagliariLecce
10
L
31/08/2026
LecceAS Roma
04
L
23/08/2026
VeneziaLecce
02
W
17/08/2026
PalermoLecce
20
L
09/08/2026
LecceSS Monopoli
10
W
29/07/2026
LecceBistrica
52
W
25/07/2026
LecceIstra 1961
22
D
22/07/2026
LecceFC Politehnica Timisoara
01
L
17/05/2026
SassuoloLecce
23
W
09/05/2026
LecceJuventus
01
L
MonzaMonza
4W2D4L
06/09/2026
ParmaMonza
11
D
01/09/2026
TorinoMonza
01
W
29/08/2026
MonzaUdinese
23
L
22/08/2026
InterMonza
41
L
14/08/2026
MonzaAvellino
30
W
07/08/2026
MonzaPadova
33
D
30/07/2026
MonzaAris Thessalonikis
13
L
24/07/2026
GalatasarayMonza
02
W
18/07/2026
MonzaPRO Vercelli
43
W
29/05/2026
MonzaCatanzaro
02
L

Referee Profile

Valerio Crezzini91 matches

3.75Cards per match
3.70Yellow cards per match
0.05Red cards per match
27.7Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Valerio Crezzini3.75
Other referees4.47

3.75 cards a match, 0.72 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.47).

Cards come from 40 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1InterInter981025:10+1525WWWWD
2LazioLazio981022:7+1525WWWWW
3AS RomaAS Roma963023:8+1521WDWDD
4ComoComo962117:8+920WWWDL
5AC MilanAC Milan953118:11+718LWWDW
6FrosinoneFrosinone952222:14+817WDWLW
7NapoliNapoli942317:11+614WDLWD
8JuventusJuventus942311:10+114LWLDW
9TorinoTorino941414:14013LWWWD
10CagliariCagliari94148:13-513LLLDW
11BolognaBologna932412:12011WWLWD
12AtalantaAtalanta932416:17-111DDLWL
13GenoaGenoa93158:13-510WWLWL
14LecceLecce930610:19-99LLWLL
15SassuoloSassuolo922514:22-88LLLDL
16MonzaMonza921616:22-67LLWLW
17UdineseUdinese91269:18-95DLLLL
18FiorentinaFiorentina912611:21-105DLLLD
19ParmaParma91265:15-105DLLLW
20VeneziaVenezia91086:19-133LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1InterInter925:1025
2LazioLazio922:725
3AS RomaAS Roma923:821
4ComoComo917:820
5AC MilanAC Milan918:1118
6FrosinoneFrosinone922:1417
7NapoliNapoli917:1114
8JuventusJuventus911:1014
9TorinoTorino914:1413
10CagliariCagliari98:1313
11BolognaBologna912:1211
12AtalantaAtalanta916:1711
13GenoaGenoa98:1310
14LecceLecce910:199
15SassuoloSassuolo914:228
16MonzaMonza916:227
17UdineseUdinese99:185
18FiorentinaFiorentina911:215
19ParmaParma95:155
20VeneziaVenezia96:193
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Lecce vs Monza forecast

The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Lecce and Monza in the Serie A table

Lecce and Monza are close in the Serie A table, 14th and 16th, with 2 points between them. League goal record so far: Lecce 10-19, Monza 16-22. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.