Palermo vs Lecce Prediction

Palermo
2-0
Finished
HT 2-0
Lecce
Stadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo·Alberto Ruben Arena, Italy 17/08/2026
PalermoPalermo
2-0
Finished
LecceLecce

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
79%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.30
SignalHIGHModel60%SurpriseMediumGap+2.2%
Palermo Rest
6 days
Lecce Rest
8 days

Palermo vs Lecce: result, form and history

Palermo beat Lecce 2-0 in the Coppa Italia on 17 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
8%2.39
X
36%3.25
2
56%2.90
Double Chance
1X
44%1.37
X2
92%1.53
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.75
No
47%2.00
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.32 + 2.42 = 3.74
Over 1.5
81%1.30
Over 2.5
48%1.97
Over 3.5
27%3.40
Under 1.5
19%3.30
Under 2.5
52%1.79
Under 3.5
73%1.30
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

5'J. Joronen INM. Fortin out
15'D. VavassoriAssist: P. Peda
20'A. Palumbo
35'L. Coulibaly
42'J. PohjanpaloAssist: D. Johnsen
46'J. Pohjanpalo INJ. Le Douaron out
46'Y. Maleh INN. Stulic out
46'A. Palumbo INHernani out
62'D. Johnsen ING. Strefezza out
73'S. Pierotti INH. Laerke out
74'O. Ngom INO. Gorter out
77'F. Ranocchia INN. Estevez out
84'W. Geubbels INP. Esteban out
88'L. Coulibaly INM. Kaba out

Lineups

Palermo
4-2-3-1Coach: Filippo Inzaghi
Lecce
4-2-3-1Coach: Eusebio Di Francesco
Avg rating7.29
Avg rating6.59
Jesse Joronen66J. Joronen
Niccolò Pierozzi6.927N. Pierozzi
Patryk Peda9.529P. Peda
Pietro Ceccaroni7.532P. Ceccaroni
Tommaso Augello7.33T. Augello
Jacopo SegreC6.78J. Segre
Filippo Ranocchia7.510F. Ranocchia
Dominic Vavassori7.59D. Vavassori
Antonio Palumbo6.25A. Palumbo
Dennis Johnsen7.217D. Johnsen
Joel Pohjanpalo7.320J. Pohjanpalo
Wladimiro FalconeC6.330W. Falcone
Danilo Veiga6.517D. Veiga
Kialonda Gaspar6.74K. Gaspar
Tiago Gabriel6.744T. Gabriel
Antonino Gallo6.525A. Gallo
Youssef Maleh6.714Y. Maleh
Oumar Ngom6.379O. Ngom
Santiago Pierotti6.550S. Pierotti
Lassana Coulibaly6.929L. Coulibaly
N'Dri Konan6.911N. Konan
Willem Geubbels5.969W. Geubbels

Palermo Substitutes

14Mattia Fortin5'for J. Joronen8.3
12Manfredi Nespola
13Mattia Bani
84Tommaso Cassandro
93Federico Barba
24Nahuel Estévez77'for F. Ranocchia6.9
23Hernani46'for A. Palumbo6.9
33Andrea Bozzolan
78Francesco Balsamo
7Gabriel Strefezza62'for D. Johnsen7.0
21Jérémy Le Douaron46'for J. Pohjanpalo6.7

Lecce Substitutes

33Plamen Penev
12Christian Lupo
3Corrie Ndaba
18Gaby Jean
16Omri Gandelman
77Mohamed Kaba88'for L. Coulibaly
8Sadik Fofana
28Olaf Gorter74'for O. Ngom6.9
34Hjalte Lærke73'for S. Pierotti7.2
9Nikola Štulić46'for Y. Maleh6.6
22Paco Esteban84'for W. Geubbels6.2

Match Stats

PalermoLecce
45%Ball Possession55%
2Corner Kicks8
1Yellow Cards1
12Total Shots18
5Shots on Goal4
5Shots off Goal9
9Shots Inside Box14
3Shots Outside Box4
2Blocked Shots5
12Fouls9
3Offsides3
3Goalkeeper Saves3
360Total Passes413
290Passes Accurate348
81%Pass Accuracy84%

Team Comparison

PalermoPalermo
LecceLecce
1764Elo Rating 1657
2.60Attack 1.02
1.49Defense 0.44
73%Hit Rate 19%
19.6Shots per Game 15.0
7.0Shots on Target 5.9
4.4Corners per Game 4.8
0.6Cards per Game 1.9

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+108 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.74 goals
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

PalermoPalermo
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2.2 vs 0.4 in first half)
LecceLecce
  • No tendency data available

Recent Form

PalermoPalermo
4W2D4L
11/08/2026
JuventusPalermo
20
L
07/08/2026
Melbourne CityPalermo
02
W
29/07/2026
PalermoIraklis 1908
11
D
25/07/2026
Palermo1. FC Nürnberg
22
D
22/07/2026
PalermoParadiso
70
W
18/07/2026
FC Ingolstadt 04Palermo
10
L
20/05/2026
PalermoCatanzaro
20
W
17/05/2026
CatanzaroPalermo
30
L
08/05/2026
VeneziaPalermo
20
L
01/05/2026
PalermoCatanzaro
32
W
LecceLecce
4W3D3L
09/08/2026
LecceSS Monopoli
10
W
29/07/2026
LecceBistrica
52
W
25/07/2026
LecceIstra 1961
22
D
22/07/2026
LecceFC Politehnica Timisoara
01
L
17/05/2026
SassuoloLecce
23
W
09/05/2026
LecceJuventus
01
L
01/05/2026
PisaLecce
12
W
25/04/2026
Hellas VeronaLecce
00
D
20/04/2026
LecceFiorentina
11
D
12/04/2026
BolognaLecce
20
L

Referee Profile

Alberto Ruben Arena103 matches

3.90Cards per match
3.83Yellow cards per match
0.07Red cards per match
25.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Alberto Ruben Arena3.90
Other referees4.38

3.90 cards a match, 0.48 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.38).

Cards come from 41 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

About the Palermo vs Lecce forecast

As a knockout tie in the Coppa Italia, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Coppa Italia

More Coppa Italia fixtures and forecasts are on the Coppa Italia Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Palermo and Lecce have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.