Venezia vs Fiorentina Prediction

Venezia
2-4
Finished
HT 1-2
Fiorentina
Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venice·Francesco Fourneau, Italy 11/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
59%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.84
SignalSOLIDModel59%SurpriseMediumGap+8.5%
Venezia Rest
5 days
Fiorentina Rest
6 days

Venezia vs Fiorentina: the result in context

Fiorentina beat Venezia 4-2 in the Serie A on 11 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their history points to a close game: 4 previous meetings produced 1.3 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
37%2.90
X
32%3.40
2
31%2.42
Double Chance
1X
69%1.56
X2
63%1.40
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%1.62
No
52%2.25
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.28 + 1.14 = 2.42
Over 1.5
74%1.24
Over 2.5
43%1.80
Over 3.5
20%2.90
Under 1.5
26%4.00
Under 2.5
57%2.04
Under 3.5
80%1.42
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.7 + 4.5 = 9.1
Over 8.5
51%2.00
Over 9.5
43%2.57
Over 10.5
31%3.46
Under 8.5
49%1.77
Under 9.5
57%1.46
Under 10.5
69%1.24
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2.3 = 4.2
Over 3.5
60%1.41
Over 4.5
41%1.84
Under 3.5
40%2.69
Under 4.5
59%1.84

Match Events

22'A. AdamsAssist: G. Busio
29'F. MastantuonoAssist: A. Jimenez
30'F. MastantuonoAssist: Beto
38'J. SchingtienneFoul
44'G. Busio INT. J. Helgason out
60'A. Atta INW. Gnonto out
60'Beto INM. Pellegrino out
66'M. PellegrinoAssist: N. Fagioli
69'R. Sagrado INT. Correia out
69'M. Moreno INJuan Jesus out
72'A. NjieDelay of game
73'S. SohmFoul
80'J. Yeboah INT. Fernandez out
80'S. Sohm INL. Lauberbach out
80'A. Njie INPote out
84'F. Mastantuono
86'A. HainautAssist: R. Haps
89'L. Ranieri INM. Pongracic out
89'F. Mastantuono INM. Brescianini out

Lineups

Venezia
3-5-2Coach: Giovanni Stroppa
Fiorentina
4-2-3-1Coach: Paolo Vanoli
Avg rating6.71
Avg rating6.86
Filip Stanković8.51F. Stanković
Joel Schingtienne6.33J. Schingtienne
Matias Moreno6.62M. Moreno
Ridgeciano Haps6.25R. Haps
Antoine Hainaut7.718A. Hainaut
Kike Pérez6.371K. Pérez
Gianluca BusioC7.06G. Busio
Simon Sohm6.319S. Sohm
Richie Sagrado6.320R. Sagrado
John Yeboah6.910J. Yeboah
Akor Adams7.345A. Adams
David De GeaC6.243D. De Gea
Álex Jiménez6.220Á. Jiménez
Radu Drăguşin6.93R. Drăguşin
Luca Ranieri6.26L. Ranieri
Viery6.333Viery
Cher Ndour6.727C. Ndour
Nicolò Fagioli7.744N. Fagioli
Franco Mastantuono9.930F. Mastantuono
Arthur Atta6.914A. Atta
Alieu Njie7.325A. Njie
Beto5.623Beto

Venezia Substitutes

21Þórir Jóhann Helgason44'for G. Busio6.3
15Juan Jesus69'for M. Moreno6.3
14Thierry Correia69'for R. Sagrado6.7
77Toni Fernández80'for J. Yeboah6.3
29Lion Lauberbach80'for S. Sohm6.3
96Lorenzo Montipò
25Redouane Halhal
16Rufai Mohammed
95Ale Gomes
36Lorenzo Berardi
56Kornel Lisman
8Lamine Fanne
55Simone Panada
70Pasquale Mazzocchi
7Albion Rrahmani

Fiorentina Substitutes

32Mateo Pellegrino60'for Beto66'7.6
29Wilfried Gnonto60'for A. Atta6.2
28Pedro Gonçalves80'for A. Njie6.3
53Oliver Christensen
19Luca Lezzerini
21Víctor Valdepeñas
2Dodô
5Marin Pongračić89'for L. Ranieri
17João Mário
42Christ Inao Oulaï
4Marco Brescianini89'for F. Mastantuono

Match Stats

VeneziaFiorentina
63%Ball Possession37%
2Corner Kicks4
2Yellow Cards1
10Total Shots19
3Shots on Goal10
6Shots off Goal6
8Shots Inside Box15
2Shots Outside Box4
1Blocked Shots3
11Fouls6
3Offsides2
6Goalkeeper Saves1
560Total Passes343
498Passes Accurate276
89%Pass Accuracy80%

Team Comparison

VeneziaVenezia
FiorentinaFiorentina
1634Elo Rating 1709
0.36Attack 1.27
1.45Defense 0.95
19%Hit Rate 0%
14.9Shots per Game 16.9
4.5Shots on Target 4.0
5.2Corners per Game 5.8
1.6Cards per Game 2.8

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

VeneziaVenezia
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
FiorentinaFiorentina
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.2 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 4 meetings, all competitions

VeneziaVenezia2Wins · 50%
Draws125%
FiorentinaFiorentina1Wins · 25%
1.3Avg Goals
25%Both teams scored1 of 4
25%3+ goals1 of 4

Previous meetings

Serie A12/05/2025
VeneziaFiorentina
21
Serie A25/08/2024
FiorentinaVenezia
00
Serie A16/04/2022
FiorentinaVenezia
10
Serie A18/10/2021
VeneziaFiorentina
10

Recent Form

VeneziaVenezia
4W1D5L
06/09/2026
FrosinoneVenezia
32
L
02/09/2026
UdineseVenezia
21
L
28/08/2026
AC MilanVenezia
20
L
23/08/2026
VeneziaLecce
02
L
15/08/2026
VeneziaModena
32
W
08/08/2026
Stade Brestois 29Venezia
22
D
01/08/2026
Saint EtienneVenezia
43
L
27/07/2026
GalatasarayVenezia
03
W
23/07/2026
VeneziaVis Pesaro
80
W
19/07/2026
VeneziaDolomiti Bellunesi
42
W
FiorentinaFiorentina
4W2D4L
05/09/2026
FiorentinaTorino
12
L
29/08/2026
FiorentinaFrosinone
03
L
24/08/2026
AS RomaFiorentina
40
L
14/08/2026
FiorentinaBenevento
41
W
06/08/2026
FiorentinaDeportivo La Coruna
11
D
01/08/2026
Real MadridFiorentina
22
D
29/07/2026
WatfordFiorentina
01
W
25/07/2026
QPRFiorentina
32
L
22/07/2026
FiorentinaGubbio
10
W
19/07/2026
FiorentinaFiorentina U20
81
W

Referee Profile

Francesco Fourneau116 matches

4.88Cards per match
4.73Yellow cards per match
0.15Red cards per match
27.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Francesco Fourneau4.88
Other referees4.66

4.88 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.66).

Cards come from 110 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1LazioLazio981022:7+1525WWWWW
2InterInter1081126:13+1325LWWWW
3AS RomaAS Roma1073028:10+1824WWDWD
4AC MilanAC Milan1063121:12+921WLWWD
5ComoComo962117:8+920WWWDL
6FrosinoneFrosinone952222:14+817WDWLW
7NapoliNapoli942317:11+614WDLWD
8BolognaBologna1042414:13+114WWWLW
9JuventusJuventus942311:10+114LWLDW
10TorinoTorino941414:14013LWWWD
11CagliariCagliari94148:13-513LLLDW
12AtalantaAtalanta932416:17-111DDLWL
13GenoaGenoa93158:13-510WWLWL
14LecceLecce930610:19-99LLWLL
15SassuoloSassuolo922514:22-88LLLDL
16MonzaMonza1021717:24-77LLLWL
17FiorentinaFiorentina912611:21-105DLLLD
18ParmaParma91265:15-105DLLLW
19UdineseUdinese1012711:23-125LDLLL
20VeneziaVenezia91086:19-133LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1LazioLazio922:725
2InterInter1026:1325
3AS RomaAS Roma1028:1024
4AC MilanAC Milan1021:1221
5ComoComo917:820
6FrosinoneFrosinone922:1417
7NapoliNapoli917:1114
8BolognaBologna1014:1314
9JuventusJuventus911:1014
10TorinoTorino914:1413
11CagliariCagliari98:1313
12AtalantaAtalanta916:1711
13GenoaGenoa98:1310
14LecceLecce910:199
15SassuoloSassuolo914:228
16MonzaMonza1017:247
17FiorentinaFiorentina911:215
18ParmaParma95:155
19UdineseUdinese1011:235
20VeneziaVenezia96:193
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Venezia vs Fiorentina forecast

The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Venezia and Fiorentina in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Fiorentina are 17th and Venezia 20th, 2 points apart. League goal record so far: Venezia 6-19, Fiorentina 11-21. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.