Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo Prediction

Allianz Field, Sao Paulo·Marcos De Oliveira 11/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
67%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.28
SignalSOLIDModel43%SurpriseMediumGap-11.0%
Minnesota United FC Rest
14 days
Houston Dynamo Rest
14 days

Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo: result, form and history

Minnesota United FC and Houston Dynamo drew 2-2 in the Major League Soccer on 11 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Minnesota United FC have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.7 goals a game. Referee Marcos De Oliveira averages 3.83 cards a game, 0.55 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
42%2.08
X
27%3.50
2
31%3.40
Double Chance
1X
69%1.28
X2
58%1.73
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%1.61
No
42%2.20
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.43 + 1.54 = 2.97
Over 1.5
79%1.22
Over 2.5
56%1.75
Over 3.5
34%2.88
Under 1.5
21%4.00
Under 2.5
44%2.05
Under 3.5
66%1.39
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.2 + 4.5 = 9.7
Over 8.5
60%1.45
Over 9.5
48%1.75
Over 10.5
36%2.28
Under 8.5
40%2.53
Under 9.5
52%1.95
Under 10.5
64%1.56
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 2 = 4.3
Over 3.5
63%1.98
Over 4.5
44%3.02
Under 3.5
37%1.81
Under 4.5
56%1.35

Match Events

18'Lyle Foster
48'Kelvin YeboahAssist: Morris Duggan
63'Lyle Foster INNick Markanich out
63'Felipe·De Andrade Vieira INFranco Negri out
63'Bongokuhle Hlongwane INMarcus Caldeira out
63'Aziel Jackson INMauricio González Carabalí out
63'Owen Gene INNectarios Triantis out
66'Mauricio González CarabalíFoul
75'Jonathan Bond INBlake Gillingham out
78'Marcus CaldeiraAssist: Cherrion Valerius
82'Wil TrappFoul
84'Lawrence Ennali INDuane Holmes out
84'Diadie Samassekou INMatthew Arana out
88'Tomás Chancalay INCarlos Harvey out
88'Cherrion Valerius INKyle Duncan out
89'Agustín Bouzat INDuncan McGuire out
90+2'Duncan McGuireAssist: Nick Markanich
90+6'Kelvin Yeboah INMaurice Malone out

Lineups

Minnesota United FC
3-4-3Coach: C. Knowles
Houston Dynamo
4-3-3Coach: Ben Olsen
Avg rating6.60
Avg rating6.67
D. Callender6.712D. Callender
Cherrion Valerius6.852C. Valerius
M. Boxall6.515M. Boxall
M. Duggan7.123M. Duggan
B. Hlongwane6.121B. Hlongwane
O. Gene6.030O. Gene
W. Trapp6.920W. Trapp
A. Markanich6.613A. Markanich
A. Jackson6.316A. Jackson
K. Yeboah8.19K. Yeboah
T. Chancalay5.98T. Chancalay
J. Bond6.631J. Bond
Felipe Andrade6.336F. Andrade
Antônio Carlos6.83A. Carlos
Lucas Halter6.75L. Halter
L. Ennali6.611L. Ennali
D. Samassékou6.418D. Samassékou
Artur6.86Artur
A. Bouzat6.530A. Bouzat
M. Bogusz6.419M. Bogusz
L. Foster7.99L. Foster
Guilherme7.020Guilherme

Minnesota United FC Substitutes

25N. Triantis63'for Owen Gene6.3
3K. Duncan88'for Cherrion Valerius6.1
18M. Gonzalez63'for Aziel Jackson66'6.2
67C. Harvey88'for Tomás Chancalay6.0
11M. Malone90+6'for Kelvin Yeboah
94Kayne Rizvanovich
5N. Romero
27D. Taylor
22Marcus Caldeira63'for Bongokuhle Hlongwane78'8.2

Houston Dynamo Substitutes

22M. Arana84'for Diadie Samassekou6.1
24A. Ibrahim
17N. Markanich63'for Lyle Foster6.9
26B. Gillingham75'for Jonathan Bond5.7
14D. Holmes84'for Lawrence Ennali6.1
23D. McGuire89'for Agustín Bouzat90+2'8.1
21F. Negri63'for Felipe·De Andrade Vieira6.5
37G. Rivera

Match Stats

Minnesota United FCHouston Dynamo
46%Ball Possession54%
2Corner Kicks5
2Yellow Cards0
15Total Shots15
6Shots on Goal6
7Shots off Goal7
11Shots Inside Box12
4Shots Outside Box3
2Blocked Shots2
16Fouls4
0Offsides1
4Goalkeeper Saves4
438Total Passes513
374Passes Accurate446
4Free Kicks15

Team Comparison

Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC
Houston DynamoHouston Dynamo
1556Elo Rating 1611
2.10Attack 1.90
0.69Defense 0.77
27%Hit Rate 0%
17.2Shots per Game 12.6
5.6Shots on Target 3.4
4.8Corners per Game 4.8
1.6Cards per Game 2.4

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.97 goals
📈BTTS Trend50% in H2H
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 75% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.8 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Houston DynamoHouston Dynamo
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC6Wins · 60%
Draws110%
Houston DynamoHouston Dynamo3Wins · 30%
2.7Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10

Previous meetings

Major League Soccer26/06/2025
Minnesota United FCHouston Dynamo
31
Major League Soccer15/05/2025
Houston DynamoMinnesota United FC
20
Major League Soccer14/07/2024
Houston DynamoMinnesota United FC
11
Major League Soccer14/04/2024
Minnesota United FCHouston Dynamo
12
Major League Soccer13/07/2023
Houston DynamoMinnesota United FC
03
US Open Cup24/05/2023
Houston DynamoMinnesota United FC
40
Major League Soccer18/05/2023
Minnesota United FCHouston Dynamo
10
Major League Soccer27/08/2022
Minnesota United FCHouston Dynamo
21
Major League Soccer24/07/2022
Houston DynamoMinnesota United FC
12
Major League Soccer26/09/2021
Minnesota United FCHouston Dynamo
20

Referee Profile

Marcos De Oliveira114 matches

3.83Cards per match
3.76Yellow cards per match
0.07Red cards per match
25.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Marcos De Oliveira3.83
Other referees4.38

3.83 cards a match, 0.55 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.38).

Cards come from 109 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps32177867:33+3458WLWDD
2FC DallasFC Dallas32159858:49+954LWDWL
3St. Louis CitySt. Louis City32149958:47+1151LLLDW
4Houston DynamoHouston Dynamo32149942:39+351WDDDD
5San Jose EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes321310954:47+749DLDDD
6Los Angeles FCLos Angeles FC321211950:35+1547DDWDL
7Colorado RapidsColorado Rapids321271344:43+143DWDDD
8Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders3211101141:40+143LDDLW
9Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake321261450:49+142WWWDL
10Los Angeles GalaxyLos Angeles Galaxy3210111145:54-941DDWLW
11Portland TimbersPortland Timbers321171457:60-340WWDLD
12Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC329111250:56-638WDWDD
13San DiegoSan Diego328111356:62-635LDDDL
14AustinAustin328101441:59-1834LWLLL
15Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City32642238:80-4222LLLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps3267:3358
2FC DallasFC Dallas3258:4954
3St. Louis CitySt. Louis City3258:4751
4Houston DynamoHouston Dynamo3242:3951
5San Jose EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes3254:4749
6Los Angeles FCLos Angeles FC3250:3547
7Colorado RapidsColorado Rapids3244:4343
8Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders3241:4043
9Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake3250:4942
10Los Angeles GalaxyLos Angeles Galaxy3245:5441
11Portland TimbersPortland Timbers3257:6040
12Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC3250:5638
13San DiegoSan Diego3256:6235
14AustinAustin3241:5934
15Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City3238:8022
Promotion

About the Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Minnesota United FC and Houston Dynamo in the Major League Soccer table

The table shows a wide gap: Houston Dynamo are 4th in the Major League Soccer, while Minnesota United FC sit 12th, 13 points behind. League goal record so far: Minnesota United FC 50-56, Houston Dynamo 42-39. The full standings are on the Major League Soccer Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Houston Dynamo have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.