MVV vs Excelsior Prediction

MVV
0-3
Finished
HT 0-1
Excelsior
De Geusselt, Maastricht·A. Bos 28/10/2026
MVVMVV
0-3
Finished
ExcelsiorExcelsior

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
69%Trust
1X2
Away Win
1.40
SignalSOLIDModel64%SurpriseHighGap-2.0%
MVV Rest
5 days
Excelsior Rest
3 days

MVV vs Excelsior: result, form and history

Excelsior beat MVV 3-0 in the KNVB Beker on 28 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Excelsior have had the better of this fixture, winning 5 of the 8 previous meetings, which averaged 3.3 goals a game. MVV tend to win more corners, 4.5 a game to 2.3 for Excelsior.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
13%6.20
X
20%4.75
2
67%1.40
Double Chance
1X
32%2.73
X2
87%1.09
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%1.53
No
43%2.31
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.13 + 1.72 = 2.85
Over 1.5
83%1.09
Over 2.5
65%1.36
Over 3.5
44%2.00
Under 1.5
17%6.17
Under 2.5
35%2.81
Under 3.5
56%1.75
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

8'E. SierraFoul
11'N. Matoug INO. Zimuangana out
15'I. YegoianAssist: S. van Gassel
60'I. Yegoian(Penalty)
61'D. van Vianen INV. Sulzbacher out
61'N. Naujoks INA. Thorsteinsson out
61'M. Dominguez IND. Garden out
70'I. Silva Timas INA. Sliti out
75'T. Verheijen INM. Luijendijk out
75'Y. Liesdek INT. Bomble out
89'A. Sliti
90'I. Yegoian INQ. Kraaijvanger out

Lineups

MVV
4-2-3-1
Excelsior
4-2-3-1
Avg rating6.54
Avg rating6.96
Hugo Wentges6.01H. Wentges
Sil van der Wegen6.917S. van der Wegen
Finn Dicke7.36F. Dicke
Sven Bouland6.222S. Bouland
Yael Liesdek6.225Y. Liesdek
Delano Asante6.221D. Asante
Elias Sierra7.318E. Sierra
Olivier Dumont6.710O. Dumont
Naïm Matoug6.527N. Matoug
Lennerd DaneelsC6.97L. Daneels
Thijme Verheijen6.211T. Verheijen
Stijn van Gassel8.01S. van Gassel
Eric da Silva Moreira7.22E. da Silva Moreira
Casper WidellC7.54C. Widell
Jan Plug7.314J. Plug
Simon Janssen7.015S. Janssen
Rick Meissen7.53R. Meissen
Daniel van Vianen6.36D. van Vianen
Ilano Silva Timas6.321I. Silva Timas
Noah Naujoks6.210N. Naujoks
Irakli Yegoian8.58I. Yegoian
Mario Domínguez6.69M. Domínguez

MVV Substitutes

29Onesime Zimuangana11'for N. Matoug6.5
23Victor Goffings
12Sep van der Heijden
33Tristan Bomble75'for Y. Liesdek6.3
16Robert Klaasen
19Mika Luijendijk75'for T. Verheijen6.3
20Amine Amgar
14Mats Kuipers
34Samy Moumni
31Yanis Bourard

Excelsior Substitutes

16Celton Biai
24Giuliano Cairo
22Osman Turay
12Kasey Bos
34Quinten Kraaivanger90'for I. Yegoian
23Yaqub Finey
30Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson61'for N. Naujoks6.5
18Valentin Sulzbacher61'for D. van Vianen6.7
7Aymen Sliti70'for I. Silva Timas89'6.3
28Nesto Groen
19David Garden61'for M. Dominguez6.5

Match Stats

MVVExcelsior
60%Ball Possession40%
6Corner Kicks1
1Yellow Cards0
16Total Shots8
6Shots on Goal5
6Shots off Goal1
6Shots Inside Box6
10Shots Outside Box2
4Blocked Shots2
10Fouls11
1Offsides2
3Goalkeeper Saves6
521Total Passes358
422Passes Accurate270
81%Pass Accuracy75%

Team Comparison

MVVMVV
ExcelsiorExcelsior
1454Elo Rating 1643
1.22Attack 1.07
0.46Defense 0.00
14%Hit Rate 0%
9.8Shots per Game 9.4
2.8Shots on Target 2.5
4.5Corners per Game 2.3
1.3Cards per Game 1.4

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.84 goals
📈BTTS Trend75% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
⚠️Home Rotation Risk70%

Game State Tendencies

MVVMVV
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
ExcelsiorExcelsior
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 8 meetings, all competitions

MVVMVV1Wins · 13%
Draws225%
ExcelsiorExcelsior5Wins · 62%
3.3Avg Goals
75%Both teams scored6 of 8
63%3+ goals5 of 8

Previous meetings

Eerste Divisie04/04/2025
MVVExcelsior
12
Eerste Divisie18/10/2024
ExcelsiorMVV
32
KNVB Beker19/10/2022
ExcelsiorMVV
51
Eerste Divisie15/04/2022
MVVExcelsior
11
Eerste Divisie10/12/2021
ExcelsiorMVV
21
Eerste Divisie20/02/2021
MVVExcelsior
10
KNVB Beker19/01/2021
MVVExcelsior
4252
Eerste Divisie16/10/2020
ExcelsiorMVV
20

Recent Form

Referee Profile

A. Bos166 matches

3.01Cards per match
2.87Yellow cards per match
0.14Red cards per match
22.7Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

A. Bos3.01
Other referees3.23

3.01 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.23).

Cards come from 156 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

About the MVV vs Excelsior forecast

As a knockout tie in the KNVB Beker, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About KNVB Beker

More KNVB Beker fixtures and forecasts are on the KNVB Beker Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.