Excelsior vs Groningen Prediction

EredivisieNetherlands Netherlands · Regular Season - 8
Excelsior
1-5
Finished
HT 1-2
Groningen
Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam·Richard Martens 11/10/2026
ExcelsiorExcelsior
1-5
Finished
GroningenGroningen

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
61%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.50
SignalNEUTRALModel43%SurpriseMediumGap-5.7%
Excelsior Rest
21 days
Groningen Rest
22 days

Excelsior vs Groningen: the result in context

Groningen beat Excelsior 5-1 in the Eredivisie on 11 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 6 previous meetings averaged 2.8 goals, with both teams scoring in 2 of them. Groningen tend to win more corners, 5.4 a game to 2.3 for Excelsior.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
36%2.55
X
28%3.67
2
36%2.50
Double Chance
1X
64%1.50
X2
64%1.50
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%1.44
No
38%2.60
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.5 + 1.12 = 2.62
Over 1.5
81%1.13
Over 2.5
59%1.50
Over 3.5
38%2.27
Under 1.5
19%5.25
Under 2.5
41%2.40
Under 3.5
62%1.59
Corners
Projected Corners: 5 + 4.7 = 9.6
Over 8.5
62%1.43
Over 9.5
50%1.71
Over 10.5
38%2.15
Under 8.5
38%2.65
Under 9.5
50%2.04
Under 10.5
62%1.60
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.6 + 1.8 = 3.4
Over 3.5
45%1.85
Over 4.5
26%2.62
Under 3.5
55%1.90
Under 4.5
74%1.45

Match Events

7'Marco Rente
20'David van der WerffFoul
36'Irakli Yegoian(Penalty)
38'Stijn van GasselOG
59'Penalty confirmedJorg Schreuders
64'Thom Van Bergen(Penalty)
65'Simon Janssen INKasey Bos out
65'David Garden INMario Domínguez Franco out
65'Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson INDaniel van Vianen out
65'Eric da Silva Moreira INValentin Sulzbacher out
66'Jacob Ondrejka INTygo Land out
67'Brynjólfur Darri WillumssonAssist: Pelle Clement
72'Hans Hateboer INMark Csinger out
80'Tygo LandFoul
81'Aymen sliti INAlireza Jahanbakhsh out
84'Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson INNils Eggens out
85'Thom Van Bergen INRyan Metu out
85'David van der Werff INOskar Zawada out
90+5'Marco Rente

Lineups

Excelsior
4-3-3Coach: R. den Uil
Groningen
4-2-3-1Coach: D. Lukkien
Avg rating6.26
Avg rating6.81
S. van Gassel6.71S. van Gassel
Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira5.42E. Emanuel da Silva Moreira
C. Widell6.04C. Widell
J. Plug6.314J. Plug
S. Janssen5.615S. Janssen
I. Yegoian7.38I. Yegoian
R. Meissen6.23R. Meissen
L. Hartjes6.220L. Hartjes
A. Sliti6.57A. Sliti
D. Garden5.919D. Garden
Á. Þorsteinsson6.630Á. Þorsteinsson
E. Vaessen6.61E. Vaessen
J. Schreuders7.114J. Schreuders
T. Blokzijl6.83T. Blokzijl
M. Rente8.95M. Rente
H. Hateboer6.533H. Hateboer
T. de Jonge6.28T. de Jonge
P. Clement6.924P. Clement
D. van der Werff6.317D. van der Werff
T. van Bergen7.026T. van Bergen
J. Ondrejka6.711J. Ondrejka
B. Willumsson8.09B. Willumsson

Excelsior Substitutes

16Celton Biai
11A. Jahanbakhsh81'for Aymen sliti6.1
21I. Silva Timas
18V. Sulzbacher65'for Eric da Silva Moreira6.4
22O. Turay
6D. van Vianen65'for Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson6.0
28N. Groen
9Mario Domínguez65'for David Garden6.3
24Giulliano Cairo
12K. Bos65'for Simon Janssen6.8

Groningen Substitutes

4M. Csinger72'for Hans Hateboer6.4
20Nils Eggens84'for Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson6.6
53J. Hall
18T. Land66'for Jacob Ondrejka80'6.2
34R. Metu85'for Thom Van Bergen6.4
42J. Mosselaar
16A. Nordin
2Wouter Prins
19O. Zawada85'for David van der Werff6.5
13L. Štubljar
30P. Boevink

Match Stats

ExcelsiorGroningen
49%Ball Possession51%
3Corner Kicks6
0Yellow Cards2
16Total Shots14
2Shots on Goal9
6Shots off Goal2
11Shots Inside Box13
5Shots Outside Box1
8Blocked Shots3
10Fouls11
1Offsides1
5Goalkeeper Saves1
416Total Passes450
343Passes Accurate364
11Free Kicks9

Team Comparison

ExcelsiorExcelsior
GroningenGroningen
1643Elo Rating 1710
1.07Attack 2.72
0.00Defense 0.98
0%Hit Rate 42%
9.4Shots per Game 14.5
2.5Shots on Target 5.7
2.3Corners per Game 5.4
1.4Cards per Game 0.9

AI Insights

📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

ExcelsiorExcelsior
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
GroningenGroningen
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches

Head to Head

Last 6 meetings, all competitions

ExcelsiorExcelsior2Wins · 33%
Draws117%
GroningenGroningen3Wins · 50%
2.8Avg Goals
33%Both teams scored2 of 6
50%3+ goals3 of 6

Previous meetings

Eredivisie02/05/2026
GroningenExcelsior
23
Eredivisie05/12/2025
ExcelsiorGroningen
02
KNVB Beker16/01/2024
ExcelsiorGroningen
02
Eredivisie25/02/2023
GroningenExcelsior
30
Eredivisie08/01/2023
ExcelsiorGroningen
10
KNVB Beker15/12/2021
ExcelsiorGroningen
2242

Recent Form

ExcelsiorExcelsior
6W2D2L
19/09/2026
AjaxExcelsior
22
D
13/09/2026
ExcelsiorUtrecht
12
L08/09/2026
NEC NijmegenExcelsior
22
D05/09/2026
Willem IIExcelsior
03
W29/08/2026
ExcelsiorSparta Rotterdam
21
W15/08/2026
ExcelsiorPSV Eindhoven
12
L
07/08/2026
CambuurExcelsior
04
W
01/08/2026
De GraafschapExcelsior
15
W
24/07/2026
HeraclesExcelsior
35
W
18/07/2026
NAC BredaExcelsior
13
W
GroningenGroningen
4W3D3L
18/09/2026
GroningenPEC Zwolle
30
W12/09/2026
GO Ahead EaglesGroningen
11
D06/09/2026
GroningenTwente
22
D28/08/2026
GroningenFortuna Sittard
23
L23/08/2026
PSV EindhovenGroningen
51
L16/08/2026
ADO Den HaagGroningen
14
W09/08/2026
GroningenUtrecht
21
W
01/08/2026
GroningenValladolid
10
W
25/07/2026
GroningenVolos NFC
00
D
24/07/2026
GroningenFC Volendam
04
L

Referee Profile

Richard Martens131 matches

3.44Cards per match
3.28Yellow cards per match
0.15Red cards per match
22.5Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Richard Martens3.44
Other referees3.23

3.44 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.23).

Cards come from 123 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Eredivisie 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FeyenoordFeyenoord1073032:11+2124DWWWW
2AjaxAjax1063129:13+1621WWDDW
3PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven1062228:13+1520DLWLW
4TwenteTwente1062219:10+920WLDWW
5AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar1062220:12+820LDLWD
6Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard1053217:17018WDDWL
7HeerenveenHeerenveen1043318:13+515WWLWD
8GroningenGroningen1043324:21+315DLWWD
9GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles1035223:23014WLDDD
10CambuurCambuur1033419:22-312WDWDW
11UtrechtUtrecht1033417:27-1012DWWLW
12NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen1025317:18-111DDDDL
13ExcelsiorExcelsior1032516:19-311LLLDL
14Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam1023517:24-79LWDLL
15PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle1022611:23-128DWLLL
16TelstarTelstar1013612:21-96LLDLD
17ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag1013613:23-106LWDDL
18Willem IIWillem II1002810:32-222LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FeyenoordFeyenoord1032:1124
2AjaxAjax1029:1321
3PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven1028:1320
4TwenteTwente1019:1020
5AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar1020:1220
6Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard1017:1718
7HeerenveenHeerenveen1018:1315
8GroningenGroningen1024:2115
9GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles1023:2314
10CambuurCambuur1019:2212
11UtrechtUtrecht1017:2712
12NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen1017:1811
13ExcelsiorExcelsior1016:1911
14Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam1017:249
15PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle1011:238
16TelstarTelstar1012:216
17ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag1013:236
18Willem IIWillem II1010:322
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About the Excelsior vs Groningen forecast

The forecasts for this Eredivisie match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Excelsior and Groningen in the Eredivisie table

In the Eredivisie table, Groningen are 8th and Excelsior 13th, 4 points apart. League goal record so far: Excelsior 16-19, Groningen 24-21. The full standings are on the Eredivisie Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Groningen have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.