Rio Ave vs Estrela Prediction
Portugal · Regular Season - 6
14/09/2026
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
71%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.46
SignalGOODModel46%SurpriseMediumGap+2.3%
Value Analysis
54%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
2.05
SignalNEUTRALModel54%SurpriseMediumGap+5.9%
Rio Ave Rest
8 days
Estrela Rest
3 days
Rio Ave vs Estrela: result, form and history
Rio Ave and Estrela drew 3-3 in the Primeira Liga on 14 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Rio Ave have had the better of this fixture, winning 5 of the 8 previous meetings, which averaged 2.9 goals a game.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
149%2.70
X25%3.20
226%2.62
Double Chance
1X74%1.46
X252%1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes54%1.75
No46%1.95
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.44 + 1.15 = 2.59
Over 1.575%1.33
Over 2.551%2.05
Over 3.527%3.60
Under 1.525%3.13
Under 2.549%1.75
Under 3.573%1.25
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.7 + 4.6 = 9.2
Over 8.554%1.78
Over 9.540%2.23
Over 10.533%2.94
Under 8.546%1.89
Under 9.560%1.56
Under 10.567%1.32
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 2.3 = 4
Over 3.556%1.36
Over 4.537%1.72
Under 3.544%3.00
Under 4.563%2.05
Match Events
21'Ianis StoicaAssist: Leandro Antonetti
26'Max ScholzeFoul
44'Francisco PetrassoFoul
45+3'Francisco PetrassoAssist: Diogo Bezerra
53'Abraham MarcusAssist: Max Scholze
54'Sebastian Clemensen INRoland Galcik out
56'Roland GalcikAssist: Diogo Bezerra
58'Eddy DouéFoul
61'Abraham MarcusAssist: Ianis Stoica
63'Miguel Patricío INTamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro out
63'Eddy Doué INJoan Jordan out
68'João Tomé Baptista INNelson Abbey out
68'Tamas Nikitscher INMalik Sellouki out
68'Pedro Amaral INMarios Vrushai out
71'Max Scholze INKevin Hoog Jansson out
72'Santiago Serra INJefferson Encada out
76'Stefan LekovicFoul
78'Jalen Blesa(Penalty)
84'Abraham Marcus INBeni Souza out
84'Ianis Stoica INAlisson Souza out
90+1'Tamble Ulisses Folgado MonteiroFoul
Lineups
Rio AveEstrela
4-2-3-1Coach: PepaAvg ratingAvg rating
99E. van der Gouw
20J. Tomé
23F. Petrasso
3S. Garcia
24P. Amaral
44T. Nikitscher
5A. Ntoi
80S. Clemmensen
79M. Patricio
7D. Bezerra
11J. Blesa
24L. Linck
21M. Scholze
30P. Luan
5S. Leković
55R. Soares
78S. Serra
39E. Doue
99A. Marcus
14L. Zvonarek
10I. Stoica
37L. AntonettiRio Ave Substitutes
30R. Galčík54'for Sebastian Clemensen56'
39Gustavo Mancha
6N. Abbey68'for João Tomé Baptista
54G. Liavas
19M. Sellouki68'for Tamas Nikitscher
21R. Šiler
77D. Špikić
9Tamble Monteiro63'for Miguel Patricío90+1'
32Vitor Hugo
17M. Vrousai68'for Pedro Amaral
70A. Wenck
60Caike
Estrela Substitutes
4Bernardo Schappo
17Jefferson Encada72'for Santiago Serra
6K. Höög Jansson71'for Max Scholze
19Joan Jordán63'for Eddy Doué
3L. Mincarelli Davin
49R. Muteba
71E. Pedro Vanga
51Diogo Pinto
8Robinho
93B. Souza84'for Abraham Marcus
80Alisson84'for Ianis Stoica
22David Grilo
Match Stats
Rio AveEstrela 38%Ball Possession62%
4Corner Kicks5
2Yellow Cards3
11Total Shots20
6Shots on Goal6
3Shots off Goal7
4Shots Inside Box14
7Shots Outside Box6
2Blocked Shots7
16Fouls12
0Offsides2
2Goalkeeper Saves3
302Total Passes479
251Passes Accurate425
83%Pass Accuracy89%
Team Comparison
Rio AveEstrela1573Elo Rating 1551
1.45Attack 0.88
1.29Defense 1.28
50%Hit Rate 23%
8.5Shots per Game 16.2
4.9Shots on Target 4.1
4.6Corners per Game 6.0
2.7Cards per Game 1.8
AI Insights
📈BTTS Trend63% in H2H
📉Away Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Rio Ave- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.4 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Estrela- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.1 in first half)
Head to Head
Last 8 meetings, all competitions
Rio Ave5Wins · 63%Draws225%
Estrela1Wins · 12%
1Wins · 12%2.9Avg Goals
63%Both teams scored5 of 8
50%3+ goals4 of 8
Previous meetings
15/03/2026Rio AveEstrela21
25/10/2025EstrelaRio Ave12
05/05/2025Rio AveEstrela20
23/12/2024EstrelaRio Ave10
14/04/2024EstrelaRio Ave22
02/12/2023Rio AveEstrela11
14/02/2022Rio AveEstrela10
10/09/2021EstrelaRio Ave25
Recent Form
Rio Ave4W2D4L
06/09/2026
Santa ClaraRio AveRio Ave
Sporting CP
EstorilRio AveRio Ave
FC Porto
Santa ClaraRio Ave40
L28/08/2026Rio AveSporting CP04
L22/08/2026EstorilRio Ave02
W15/08/2026Rio AveFC Porto02
L09/08/2026
GIL VicenteRio Ave
GIL VicenteRio Ave10
L01/08/2026Rio Ave
Tondela
Rio AveTondela31
W19/07/2026Rio Ave
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Rio AveAl-Ahli Jeddah22
D15/07/2026
PortimonenseRio Ave
PortimonenseRio Ave03
W11/07/2026Rio Ave
Arouca
Rio AveArouca21
W16/05/2026
Casa PiaRio Ave
Casa PiaRio Ave11
DEstrela5W5D0L
10/09/2026Estrela
SC BragaEstrela
Famalicao
NacionalEstrelaEstrelaSporting CP
EstrelaSC Braga21
W05/09/2026EstrelaFamalicao22
D30/08/2026NacionalEstrela23
W15/08/2026
AlvercaEstrela
08/08/2026AlvercaEstrela22
DEstrelaSporting CP22
D01/08/2026Estrela
Al-Nassr
EstrelaAl-Nassr42
W29/07/2026
MaritimoEstrela
MaritimoEstrela11
D29/07/2026Estrela
Lusitano Évora 1911
EstrelaLusitano Évora 191110
W29/07/2026EstrelaPortimonense
EstrelaPortimonense11
D23/07/2026EstrelaNacional
EstrelaNacional20
WLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 21:4 | +17 | 27 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26:8 | +18 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 21:11 | +10 | 18 | LWDDW |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13:6 | +7 | 18 | LWDWW |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12:7 | +5 | 17 | WWDLD |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:11 | +2 | 17 | WWWWW |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8:7 | +1 | 14 | LWWDL |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13:13 | 0 | 11 | LWWWL |
| 9 | SC Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9:11 | -2 | 11 | LLLDW |
| 10 |  Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11:16 | -5 | 11 | WLDWL |
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14:11 | +3 | 10 | WLWDD |
| 12 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14:17 | -3 | 10 | LLLDW |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10:10 | 0 | 8 | WLDLD |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9:19 | -10 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10:18 | -8 | 7 | WLLLL |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5:17 | -12 | 7 | WLWLD |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8:21 | -13 | 7 | LWLDL |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5:15 | -10 | 2 | LLLLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 21:4 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 9 | 26:8 | 22 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 9 | 21:11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 9 | 13:6 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 12:7 | 17 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 9 | 13:11 | 17 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | 8:7 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 13:13 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 9 | 9:11 | 11 |
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | 11:16 | 11 |
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | 14:11 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela | 9 | 14:17 | 10 |
| 13 | Vitória SC | 9 | 10:10 | 8 |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | 9:19 | 8 |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | 10:18 | 7 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 5:17 | 7 |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 9 | 8:21 | 7 |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | 5:15 | 2 |
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About the Rio Ave vs Estrela forecast
Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Rio Ave and Estrela in the Primeira Liga table
In the Primeira Liga table, Estrela are 12th and Rio Ave 17th, 3 points apart. League goal record so far: Rio Ave 8-21, Estrela 14-17. The full standings are on the Primeira Liga Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.