Sporting CP vs Arouca Prediction

Sporting CP
2-2
Finished
HT 2-0
Arouca
Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon·David Rafael Oliveira da Silva 19/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
66%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.37
SignalSOLIDModel73%SurpriseMediumGap-7.5%
Sporting CP Rest
6 days
Arouca Rest
6 days

Sporting CP vs Arouca: result, form and history

Sporting CP and Arouca drew 2-2 in the Primeira Liga on 19 Sep 2026. Sporting CP had gone in with the better form, having won 4 of their previous five against 2 for Arouca.

Sporting CP have had the better of this fixture, winning 7 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 3.0 goals a game. Referee David Rafael Oliveira da Silva averages 5.84 cards a game, 0.65 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
84%1.14
X
12%8.00
2
4%15.25
Double Chance
1X
96%1.02
X2
16%5.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%2.08
No
53%1.67
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.31 + 0.77 = 3.08
Over 1.5
85%1.08
Over 2.5
66%1.37
Over 3.5
44%2.02
Under 1.5
15%6.50
Under 2.5
34%2.88
Under 3.5
56%1.78
Corners
Projected Corners: 7 + 2.4 = 9.4
Over 8.5
59%1.54
Over 9.5
46%1.98
Over 10.5
35%2.42
Under 8.5
41%2.24
Under 9.5
54%1.75
Under 10.5
65%1.43
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.2 + 2.1 = 3.3
Over 3.5
43%1.44
Over 4.5
24%1.88
Under 3.5
57%2.65
Under 4.5
76%1.85

Match Events

3'Gonçalo InácioAssist: Maximiliano Araujo
17'Luis SuárezAssist: Iván Fresneda
36'Espen van EeFoul
44'Javi SánchezFoul
45'Mateo Flores INGabrijel Rukavina out
51'Jose FontánFoul
54'Zeno DebastSerious foul
57'Nestory Irankunda INEduardo Quaresma out
59'Espen van Ee INPedro Santos out
61'Luis SuárezArgument
61'Pedro SantosArgument
66'Rodrigo Zalazar INSilas Andersen out
69'Alfonso Trezza INBrian Mansilla out
78'Penalty confirmedIván Barbero
80'Eduardo QuaresmaFoul
81'Jose Fontán(Penalty)
86'Javi Sánchez INDylan Nandín out
86'Iván Barbero INFally Mayulu out
86'Issa Doumbia INPedro Lima Barros out
86'Luis Suárez INFotis Ioannidis out
87'Dylan Nandín
90+2'Brian MansillaFoul
90+4'Maximiliano AraujoFoul

Lineups

Sporting CP
4-2-3-1Coach: Rui Borges
Arouca
4-2-3-1Coach: Vasco Seabra
Avg rating6.72
Avg rating6.59
Rui Silva6.81R. Silva
Iván Fresneda7.222I. Fresneda
Z. Debast5.86Z. Debast
Gonçalo Inácio8.125G. Inácio
M. Araújo7.120M. Araújo
Sergi Altimira6.95S. Altimira
I. Doumbia6.577I. Doumbia
Geny Catamo6.310G. Catamo
R. Zalazar6.917R. Zalazar
N. Irankunda6.219N. Irankunda
L. Suárez7.897L. Suárez
I. de Arruabarrena6.312I. de Arruabarrena
Tiago Esgaio6.528T. Esgaio
Javi Sánchez6.215J. Sánchez
José Fontán6.73J. Fontán
O. Lebedenko6.618O. Lebedenko
E. van Ee6.46E. van Ee
T. Fukui7.28T. Fukui
A. Trezza6.019A. Trezza
Mateo Flores6.121M. Flores
N. Djouahra6.27N. Djouahra
Barbero6.417Barbero

Sporting CP Substitutes

28J. Derry
4S. Andersen66'for Rodrigo Zalazar6.5
50Rodrigo Dias
58Flávio Gonçalves
7F. Ioannidis86'for Luis Suárez6.7
30Kaique
31Luis Guilherme
9Rafael Ferreira Nel
21Pedro Lima86'for Issa Doumbia6.3
72Eduardo Quaresma57'for Nestory Irankunda80'5.9
8João Simões
13G. Vagiannidis

Arouca Substitutes

37Mario Climent
1J. Vinarčík
20G. Rukavina45'for Mateo Flores6.8
5B. Popović
89Pedro Santos59'for Espen van Ee61'6.9
77S. Park
23D. Nandín86'for Javi Sánchez87'8.1
4Diogo Monteiro
9F. Mayulu86'for Iván Barbero6.5
24B. Mansilla69'for Alfonso Trezza90+2'6.6
27Mamadu Balde
71M. Duarte

Match Stats

Sporting CPArouca
54%Ball Possession46%
4Corner Kicks2
4Yellow Cards5
1Red Cards0
10Total Shots15
3Shots on Goal5
2Shots off Goal9
8Shots Inside Box8
2Shots Outside Box7
5Blocked Shots1
9Fouls17
2Offsides0
4Goalkeeper Saves1
480Total Passes391
421Passes Accurate346
17Free Kicks9

Team Comparison

Sporting CPSporting CP
AroucaArouca
1894Elo Rating 1699
2.05Attack 1.62
1.52Defense 1.70
42%Hit Rate 46%
12.5Shots per Game 12.8
4.0Shots on Target 4.0
4.2Corners per Game 3.7
2.1Cards per Game 3.6

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+195 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.08 goals
📈BTTS Trend50% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Sporting CPSporting CP
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.8 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
AroucaArouca
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.7 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Sporting CPSporting CP7Wins · 70%
Draws220%
AroucaArouca1Wins · 10%
3.0Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
70%3+ goals7 of 10

Previous meetings

Primeira Liga24/01/2026
AroucaSporting CP
12
Primeira Liga17/08/2025
Sporting CPArouca
60
Primeira Liga15/02/2025
Sporting CPArouca
22
Primeira Liga13/09/2024
AroucaSporting CP
03
Primeira Liga10/03/2024
AroucaSporting CP
03
Primeira Liga08/10/2023
Sporting CPArouca
21
Primeira Liga16/04/2023
Sporting CPArouca
11
Taça da Liga24/01/2023
AroucaSporting CP
12
Primeira Liga29/10/2022
AroucaSporting CP
10
Primeira Liga05/03/2022
Sporting CPArouca
20

Recent Form

AroucaArouca
4W3D3L
13/09/2026
AroucaSanta Clara
12
L
07/09/2026
EstorilArouca
00
D
29/08/2026
AroucaMaritimo
21
W
23/08/2026
FC PortoArouca
20
L
16/08/2026
AroucaMoreirense
40
W
08/08/2026
GuimaraesArouca
01
W
01/08/2026
Lusitânia LourosaArouca
02
W
25/07/2026
Santa ClaraArouca
30
L
22/07/2026
FamalicaoArouca
00
D
18/07/2026
FeirenseArouca
00
D

Referee Profile

David Rafael Oliveira da Silva28 matches

5.84Cards per match
5.64Yellow cards per match
0.20Red cards per match
32.0Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

David Rafael Oliveira da Silva5.84
Other referees5.19

5.84 cards a match, 0.65 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.19).

Cards come from 25 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Primeira Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FC PortoFC Porto990021:4+1727WWWWW
2BenficaBenfica971126:8+1822WWLWW
3Sporting CPSporting CP953121:11+1018LWDDW
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara953113:6+718LWDWW
5AroucaArouca952212:7+517WWDLD
6Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu952213:11+217WWWWW
7GIL VicenteGIL Vicente94238:7+114LWWDL
8AlvercaAlverca932413:13011LWWWL
9SC BragaSC Braga93249:11-211LLLDW
10MoreirenseMoreirense932411:16-511WLDWL
11FamalicaoFamalicao924314:11+310WLWDD
12EstrelaEstrela924314:17-310LLLDW
13Vitória SCVitória SC922510:1008WLDLD
14MaritimoMaritimo92259:19-108LLDLL
15NacionalNacional921610:18-87WLLLL
16Casa PiaCasa Pia92165:17-127WLWLD
17Rio AveRio Ave92168:21-137LWLDL
18EstorilEstoril90275:15-102LLLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1FC PortoFC Porto921:427
2BenficaBenfica926:822
3Sporting CPSporting CP921:1118
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara913:618
5AroucaArouca912:717
6Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu913:1117
7GIL VicenteGIL Vicente98:714
8AlvercaAlverca913:1311
9SC BragaSC Braga99:1111
10MoreirenseMoreirense911:1611
11FamalicaoFamalicao914:1110
12EstrelaEstrela914:1710
13Vitória SCVitória SC910:108
14MaritimoMaritimo99:198
15NacionalNacional910:187
16Casa PiaCasa Pia95:177
17Rio AveRio Ave98:217
18EstorilEstoril95:152
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Sporting CP vs Arouca forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Sporting CP and Arouca in the Primeira Liga table

Sporting CP and Arouca are close in the Primeira Liga table, 3rd and 5th, with 1 point between them. League goal record so far: Sporting CP 21-11, Arouca 12-7. The full standings are on the Primeira Liga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Arouca have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.