Sporting CP vs Nacional Prediction

Sporting CP
2-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Nacional
J. Pinheiro 05/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
63%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams NOT to Score
1.80
SignalSOLIDModel72%SurpriseMediumGap+12.0%
Sporting CP Rest
8 days
Nacional Rest
6 days

Sporting CP vs Nacional: result, form and history

Sporting CP beat Nacional 2-0 in the Primeira Liga on 5 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: Sporting CP had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Nacional.

Sporting CP have had the better of this fixture, winning 7 of the 7 previous meetings, which averaged 3.6 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
79%1.20
X
17%6.50
2
4%12.00
Double Chance
1X
96%1.03
X2
21%4.26
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%1.90
No
63%1.80
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.23 + 0.66 = 2.89
Over 1.5
83%1.10
Over 2.5
60%1.40
Over 3.5
35%2.02
Under 1.5
17%5.88
Under 2.5
40%2.73
Under 3.5
65%1.76
Corners
Projected Corners: 7.1 + 2.8 = 9.8
Over 8.5
65%1.43
Over 9.5
54%1.70
Over 10.5
43%2.10
Under 8.5
35%2.57
Under 9.5
46%2.01
Under 10.5
57%1.61
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.3 + 2.5 = 3.8
Over 3.5
52%1.38
Over 4.5
33%1.85
Under 3.5
48%2.60
Under 4.5
67%1.85

Match Events

5'Maximiliano AraujoFoul
20'Sergi AltimiraFoul
32'Luis Suárez(Penalty)
45'Léo Santos INDeivison Souza Brito out
48'Markus JensenFoul
49'Flávio GonçalvesAssist: Luis Suárez
62'Pablo Ruan INAllen Obando out
62'Markus Jensen INChiheb Labidi out
67'Geny Catamo INLuís Guilherme out
67'Rodrigo Zalazar INNestory Irankunda out
67'Luis Suárez INFotis Ioannidis out
73'Stavros Gavriel INMatchoi Djaló out
78'Maximiliano Araujo INGeorgios Vagiannidis out
80'Miguel Baeza INDaniel de Melo Araujo Junior out
87'Sergi Altimira INSilas Andersen out

Lineups

Sporting CP
4-2-3-1Coach: Rui Borges
Nacional
3-4-2-1Coach: Pedro Figueiredo
Avg rating6.93
Avg rating6.33
Rui Silva7.11R. Silva
Iván Fresneda6.822I. Fresneda
Z. Debast7.56Z. Debast
Gonçalo Inácio6.925G. Inácio
M. Araújo7.020M. Araújo
Sergi Altimira7.05S. Altimira
I. Doumbia6.777I. Doumbia
Geny Catamo6.710G. Catamo
R. Zalazar6.217R. Zalazar
Flávio Gonçalves8.058F. Gonçalves
L. Suárez7.697L. Suárez
Renato Bellucci6.91R. Bellucci
Léo Santos6.434L. Santos
Francisco Gonçalves6.733F. Gonçalves
Zé Vitor6.238Z. Vitor
Wesley Gasolina6.252W. Gasolina
Matheus Dias6.36M. Dias
Miguel Baeza6.08M. Baeza
W. Kokolo6.021W. Kokolo
S. Gavriel6.111S. Gavriel
M. Jensen5.97M. Jensen
Pablo Ruan6.399P. Ruan

Sporting CP Substitutes

50Rodrigo Dias
28J. Derry
9Rafael Ferreira Nel
7F. Ioannidis67'for Luis Suárez6.4
19N. Irankunda67'for Rodrigo Zalazar6.6
21Pedro Lima
31Luis Guilherme67'for Geny Catamo7.2
30Kaique
72Eduardo Quaresma
4S. Andersen87'for Sergi Altimira6.5
13G. Vagiannidis78'for Maximiliano Araujo6.5
73Eduardo Felicíssimo

Nacional Substitutes

9A. Obando62'for Pablo Ruan6.6
17F. Nava
50Kevyn
15C. Labidi62'for Markus Jensen6.6
31D. Dongmo
20Matchoi Djaló73'for Stavros Gavriel6.5
2Daniel Isai de la Cruz de la Cruz
10Daniel Júnior80'for Miguel Baeza6.1
88Deivison45'for Léo Santos6.7

Match Stats

Sporting CPNacional
67%Ball Possession33%
12Corner Kicks0
2Yellow Cards1
19Total Shots3
8Shots on Goal2
10Shots off Goal0
10Shots Inside Box0
9Shots Outside Box3
1Blocked Shots1
10Fouls7
1Offsides2
2Goalkeeper Saves6
660Total Passes318
586Passes Accurate255
89%Pass Accuracy80%

Team Comparison

Sporting CPSporting CP
NacionalNacional
1894Elo Rating 1490
2.05Attack 0.62
1.52Defense 0.49
42%Hit Rate 0%
12.5Shots per Game 10.8
4.0Shots on Target 3.4
4.2Corners per Game 4.8
2.1Cards per Game 0.7

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+404 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.88 goals
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Sporting CPSporting CP
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.8 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
NacionalNacional
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 7 meetings, all competitions

Sporting CPSporting CP7Wins · 100%
Draws00%
NacionalNacional0Wins · 0%
3.6Avg Goals
57%Both teams scored4 of 7
57%3+ goals4 of 7

Previous meetings

Primeira Liga01/02/2026
Sporting CPNacional
21
Primeira Liga23/08/2025
NacionalSporting CP
14
Primeira Liga25/01/2025
Sporting CPNacional
20
Taça da Liga29/10/2024
Sporting CPNacional
31
Primeira Liga17/08/2024
NacionalSporting CP
16
Primeira Liga01/05/2021
Sporting CPNacional
20
Primeira Liga08/01/2021
NacionalSporting CP
02

Recent Form

Sporting CPSporting CP
8W1D1L
28/08/2026
Rio AveSporting CP
04
W
22/08/2026
Sporting CPAlverca
31
W
14/08/2026
Sporting CPVitória SC
32
W
08/08/2026
EstrelaSporting CP
22
D
31/07/2026
Sporting CPNottingham Forest
41
W
25/07/2026
Sporting CPMonaco
20
W
20/07/2026
Sporting CPStrasbourg
70
W
14/07/2026
Sporting CPCeltic
41
W
24/05/2026
Sporting CPTorreense
1121
L
16/05/2026
Sporting CPGIL Vicente
30
W
NacionalNacional
2W4D4L
30/08/2026
NacionalEstrela
23
L
23/08/2026
Vitória SCNacional
10
L
16/08/2026
NacionalEstoril
20
W
10/08/2026
Santa ClaraNacional
22
D
23/07/2026
EstrelaNacional
20
L
22/07/2026
NacionalLeganes
00
D
19/07/2026
TondelaNacional
11
D
18/07/2026
NacionalLeixoes
33
D
16/05/2026
NacionalGuimaraes
20
W
11/05/2026
Santa ClaraNacional
20
L

Referee Profile

J. Pinheiro14 matches analysed

4.72Cards per match
4.49Yellow cards per match
0.22Red cards per match
25.4Fouls per match

Strictness

Stricter than 62% of referees analysed

Model estimates, weighted toward the competition average while the sample is small.

League Table

Primeira Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FC PortoFC Porto990021:4+1727WWWWW
2BenficaBenfica971126:8+1822WWLWW
3Sporting CPSporting CP953121:11+1018LWDDW
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara953113:6+718LWDWW
5AroucaArouca952212:7+517WWDLD
6Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu952213:11+217WWWWW
7GIL VicenteGIL Vicente94238:7+114LWWDL
8AlvercaAlverca932413:13011LWWWL
9SC BragaSC Braga93249:11-211LLLDW
10MoreirenseMoreirense932411:16-511WLDWL
11FamalicaoFamalicao924314:11+310WLWDD
12EstrelaEstrela924314:17-310LLLDW
13Vitória SCVitória SC922510:1008WLDLD
14MaritimoMaritimo92259:19-108LLDLL
15NacionalNacional921610:18-87WLLLL
16Casa PiaCasa Pia92165:17-127WLWLD
17Rio AveRio Ave92168:21-137LWLDL
18EstorilEstoril90275:15-102LLLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1FC PortoFC Porto921:427
2BenficaBenfica926:822
3Sporting CPSporting CP921:1118
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara913:618
5AroucaArouca912:717
6Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu913:1117
7GIL VicenteGIL Vicente98:714
8AlvercaAlverca913:1311
9SC BragaSC Braga99:1111
10MoreirenseMoreirense911:1611
11FamalicaoFamalicao914:1110
12EstrelaEstrela914:1710
13Vitória SCVitória SC910:108
14MaritimoMaritimo99:198
15NacionalNacional910:187
16Casa PiaCasa Pia95:177
17Rio AveRio Ave98:217
18EstorilEstoril95:152
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Sporting CP vs Nacional forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Sporting CP and Nacional in the Primeira Liga table

The table shows a wide gap: Sporting CP are 3rd in the Primeira Liga, while Nacional sit 15th, 11 points behind. League goal record so far: Sporting CP 21-11, Nacional 10-18. The full standings are on the Primeira Liga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.