Spartak Moscow vs Fakel Prediction

Spartak Moscow
1-0
Finished
HT 0-0
Fakel
Lukoil Arena, Moscow 16/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
65%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 9.5
1.81
SignalSOLIDModel65%SurpriseMediumGap+10.9%
Spartak Moscow Rest
3 days
Fakel Rest
4 days

Spartak Moscow vs Fakel: the result in context

Spartak Moscow beat Fakel 1-0 in the Premier League on 16 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: Spartak Moscow had won 3 of their previous five, compared with none for Fakel.

Spartak Moscow have had the better of this fixture, winning 5 of the 8 previous meetings, which averaged 2.9 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
72%1.36
X
18%5.20
2
10%8.99
Double Chance
1X
90%1.08
X2
28%3.28
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%2.02
No
50%1.72
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.33 + 0.76 = 3.09
Over 1.5
84%1.19
Over 2.5
63%1.73
Over 3.5
38%2.65
Under 1.5
16%3.95
Under 2.5
37%2.17
Under 3.5
62%1.40
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.5 + 2.4 = 8.9
Over 8.5
49%1.52
Over 9.5
35%1.94
Over 10.5
22%2.44
Under 8.5
51%2.30
Under 9.5
65%1.81
Under 10.5
78%1.47
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 2.5 = 4.2
Over 3.5
61%-
Over 4.5
41%-
Under 3.5
39%-
Under 4.5
59%-

Match Events

39'Maksim Turishchev INHodaifa El Mhassani out
59'Matvey BardachevFoul
61'Mirlind Daku INEsequiel Barco out
61'Marquinhos INIgor Dmitriev out
64'Anton Kovalev INBelajdi Pusi out
64'Aleksandr Koksharov INNikolay Giorgobiani out
66'Albert GabaraevFoul
66'Matvey Bardachev
75'Daniil Denisov INDanil Prutsev out
79'Butta Magomedov INAxel Gnapi out
79'Darko Todorovic INYuriy Zhuravlev out
86'Nikolay GiorgobianiDissent
90+1'Manfred Ugalde

Lineups

Spartak Moscow
4-2-3-1Coach: Carcedo
Fakel
3-4-3Coach: Oleg Vasilenko
Avg rating6.84
Avg rating6.14
A. Maksimenko7.098A. Maksimenko
D. Denisov6.797D. Denisov
A. Djiku6.64A. Djiku
S. Babić7.26S. Babić
R. Zobnin6.847R. Zobnin
N. Umyarov6.218N. Umyarov
Gedson Fernandes6.783G. Fernandes
P. Solari6.97P. Solari
M. Daku6.419M. Daku
Marquinhos7.210Marquinhos
M. Ugalde8.29M. Ugalde
D. Frolkin5.91D. Frolkin
A. Gabaraev6.15A. Gabaraev
Clayton5.840Clayton
M. Bardachev5.553M. Bardachev
A. Kovalev6.017A. Kovalev
R. Netfullin6.252R. Netfullin
V. Yakimov5.823V. Yakimov
D. Todorović5.955D. Todorović
M. Turishchev6.27M. Turishchev
A. Koksharov6.590A. Koksharov
B. Magomedov6.497B. Magomedov

Spartak Moscow Substitutes

62P. Polekh
5E. Barco61'for Mirlind Daku7.1
25D. Prutsev75'for Daniil Denisov6.5
1I. Pomazun
27I. Dmitriev61'for Marquinhos6.6
56A. Dovbnya
24Nikita Massalyga
17V. Saus
40I. Sorokin
33Víctor Parada

Fakel Substitutes

8A. Bagamaev
35V. Dorovskikh
22H. El Mahasni39'for Maksim Turishchev6.6
99N. Giorgobiani64'for Aleksandr Koksharov86'6.1
9A. Gnapi Dable79'for Butta Magomedov6.3
96I. Obukhov
19B. Pusi64'for Anton Kovalev6.3
11A. Sutormin
20I. Yurganov
44Y. Zhuravlev79'for Darko Todorovic6.7
10I. Alshin

Match Stats

Spartak MoscowFakel
75%Ball Possession25%
11Corner Kicks2
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
26Total Shots2
5Shots on Goal1
14Shots off Goal0
16Shots Inside Box1
10Shots Outside Box1
7Blocked Shots1
7Fouls23
4Offsides1
1Goalkeeper Saves3
586Total Passes194
478Passes Accurate105
22Free Kicks6

Team Comparison

Spartak MoscowSpartak Moscow
FakelFakel
1700Elo Rating 1458
1.85Attack 0.72
2.07Defense 1.87
63%Hit Rate 36%
15.9Shots per Game 10.5
7.2Shots on Target 3.0
4.7Corners per Game 4.5
2.2Cards per Game 2.7

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+243 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.09 goals
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Spartak MoscowSpartak Moscow
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
FakelFakel
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.5 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 8 meetings, all competitions

Spartak MoscowSpartak Moscow5Wins · 63%
Draws112%
FakelFakel2Wins · 25%
2.9Avg Goals
38%Both teams scored3 of 8
63%3+ goals5 of 8

Previous meetings

Premier League04/05/2025
FakelSpartak Moscow
00
Premier League18/08/2024
Spartak MoscowFakel
30
Premier League10/03/2024
Spartak MoscowFakel Voronezh
02
Premier League28/10/2023
Fakel VoronezhSpartak Moscow
20
Premier League11/03/2023
Spartak MoscowFakel Voronezh
32
Cup19/10/2022
Fakel VoronezhSpartak Moscow
12
Cup15/09/2022
Spartak MoscowFakel Voronezh
30
Premier League27/08/2022
Fakel VoronezhSpartak Moscow
14

Recent Form

Spartak MoscowSpartak Moscow
6W1D3L
13/09/2026
Spartak MoscowFC Rostov
30
W
06/09/2026
DynamoSpartak Moscow
21
L
02/09/2026
Spartak MoscowRodina Moskva
31
W
30/08/2026
Spartak MoscowFC Orenburg
11
D
23/08/2026
Spartak MoscowZenit
20
W
19/08/2026
RubinSpartak Moscow
5131
L
16/08/2026
BaltikaSpartak Moscow
12
W
09/08/2026
Spartak MoscowFC Krasnodar
12
L
05/08/2026
Spartak MoscowFC Orenburg
51
W
02/08/2026
AkhmatSpartak Moscow
12
W
FakelFakel
0W3D7L
12/09/2026
FakelBaltika
22
D
05/09/2026
FC RostovFakel
31
L
01/09/2026
FakelFC Krasnodar
3141
L
29/08/2026
FakelZenit
01
L
22/08/2026
FakelFC Orenburg
00
D
18/08/2026
AkhmatFakel
21
L
15/08/2026
CSKA MoscowFakel
10
L
10/08/2026
FakelAkhmat
00
D
05/08/2026
FakelDynamo
01
L
02/08/2026
FC KrasnodarFakel
32
L

League Table

Premier League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1ZenitZenit13100330:13+1730WWWWW
2DynamoDynamo1391321:12+928WLWWW
3CSKA MoscowCSKA Moscow1375121:12+926DWLWW
4Spartak MoscowSpartak Moscow1382325:10+1526WLWDW
5FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar1365221:16+523LDDLD
6FC RostovFC Rostov1353516:17-118WWDWL
7BaltikaBaltika1345417:14+317WDDDL
8FC OrenburgFC Orenburg1338214:12+217DWDWD
9Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov1336417:20-315LWLDD
10RubinRubin1336413:18-515WLLLD
11Dinamo MakhachkalaDinamo Makhachkala1341816:26-1013LLDLL
12Rodina MoskvaRodina Moskva1333715:28-1312WWDLD
13AkronAkron1326516:23-712LWDLW
14LokomotivLokomotiv1325616:20-411LLDWD
15AkhmatAkhmat1325615:19-411LLLDL
16FakelFakel131398:21-136LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1ZenitZenit1330:1330
2DynamoDynamo1321:1228
3CSKA MoscowCSKA Moscow1321:1226
4Spartak MoscowSpartak Moscow1325:1026
5FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar1321:1623
6FC RostovFC Rostov1316:1718
7BaltikaBaltika1317:1417
8FC OrenburgFC Orenburg1314:1217
9Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov1317:2015
10RubinRubin1313:1815
11Dinamo MakhachkalaDinamo Makhachkala1316:2613
12Rodina MoskvaRodina Moskva1315:2812
13AkronAkron1316:2312
14LokomotivLokomotiv1316:2011
15AkhmatAkhmat1315:1911
16FakelFakel138:216
Relegation

About the Spartak Moscow vs Fakel forecast

The forecasts for this Premier League match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Spartak Moscow and Fakel in the Premier League table

The table shows a wide gap: Spartak Moscow are 4th in the Premier League, while Fakel sit 16th, 20 points behind. League goal record so far: Spartak Moscow 25-10, Fakel 8-21. The full standings are on the Premier League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.