Universitario vs FBC Melgar Prediction
Peru · Clausura - 11
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
76%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.16
SignalHIGHModel49%SurpriseMediumGap-10.5%
Universitario Rest
21 days
FBC Melgar Rest
20 days
Universitario vs FBC Melgar: the result in context
Universitario and FBC Melgar drew 2-2 in the Primera División on 11 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Universitario have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.3 goals a game. Referee Roberto Perez Gutierrez averages 4.83 cards a game, 0.67 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
150%1.80
X28%3.09
222%4.88
Double Chance
1X78%1.16
X250%1.90
Both Teams to Score
Yes52%1.84
No48%1.84
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.52 + 1.24 = 2.76
Over 1.573%1.30
Over 2.549%2.00
Over 3.528%3.40
Under 1.527%3.25
Under 2.551%1.75
Under 3.572%1.26
Corners
Projected Corners: 5 + 4.9 = 9.9
Over 8.563%1.81
Over 9.549%2.33
Over 10.537%3.17
Under 8.537%1.91
Under 9.551%1.53
Under 10.563%1.26
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.2 + 2.6 = 4.8
Over 3.571%-
Over 4.553%-
Under 3.529%-
Under 4.547%-
Match Events
16'Caín FaraFoul
20'Juan EscobarFoul
39'Bernardo CuestaAssist: Nicolas Quagliata
45'Jorge Murrugarra INPiero Quispe out
56'Cristian Bordacahar
61'Walter TandazoFoul
66'Gianluca Lapadula INLisandro Alzugaray out
67'Caín Fara INEdison Flores out
69'Bernardo Cuesta INMatias Zegarra out
70'Lautaro Guzmán INJohnny Vidales out
77'Nelson Cabanillas INJesús Alcantar out
82'Jairo Concha INJosé Rivera out
84'Alex ValeraAssist: Horacio Calcaterra
86'Matias ZegarraFoul
86'Alex ValeraAssist: Edison Flores
90+2'Horacio Calcaterra INJuan Manuel Requena out
Lineups
UniversitarioFBC Melgar
4-2-3-1Coach: M. RondelliAvg ratingAvg rating
1D. Romero
4A. Santamaría
3W. Riveros
2C. Fara
23J. Murrugarra
24A. Polo
10H. Calcaterra
17J. Concha
33C. Inga
18G. Lapadula
20A. Valera
21J. Cabezudo
33M. Lazo
23J. Escobar
3L. González
27N. Cabanillas
25K. Minda
24W. Tandazo
7C. Bordacahar
10N. Quagliata
8L. Guzmán
9B. CuestaUniversitario Substitutes
29A. Corzo
19É. Flores67'for Caín Fara
8H. Fértoli
39P. Quispe45'for Jorge Murrugarra
15J. Requena90+2'for Horacio Calcaterra
77B. Reyna
11J. Rivera82'for Jairo Concha
25M. Vargas
30Lisandro Joel Alzugaray66'for Gianluca Lapadula
FBC Melgar Substitutes
90J. Alcántar77'for Nelson Cabanillas
12C. Cáceda
16J. Cáceres
80J. D´Arrigo
5A. Deneumostier
36P. Nunez
11J. Vidales70'for Lautaro Guzmán
77F. Zanelatto
45Matias Zegarra69'for Bernardo Cuesta86'
Match Stats
UniversitarioFBC Melgar 46%Ball Possession54%
9Corner Kicks3
1Yellow Cards3
13Total Shots12
4Shots on Goal6
7Shots off Goal4
10Shots Inside Box8
3Shots Outside Box4
2Blocked Shots2
13Fouls9
0Offsides1
4Goalkeeper Saves2
401Total Passes506
320Passes Accurate418
9Free Kicks13
Team Comparison
UniversitarioFBC Melgar1699Elo Rating 1699
2.15Attack 2.15
1.05Defense 1.72
44%Hit Rate 64%
11.2Shots per Game 16.1
4.4Shots on Target 7.0
5.7Corners per Game 5.2
2.3Cards per Game 2.1
AI Insights
📈BTTS Trend50% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
Game State Tendencies
Universitario- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 67% of the time
FBC Melgar- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.9 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Universitario6Wins · 60%Draws110%
FBC Melgar3Wins · 30%
3Wins · 30%2.3Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10
Previous meetings
20/04/2026FBC MelgarUniversitario21
14/09/2025FBC MelgarUniversitario12
14/04/2025UniversitarioFBC Melgar41
01/08/2024FBC MelgarUniversitario10
18/02/2024UniversitarioFBC Melgar20
07/08/2023FBC MelgarUniversitario01
05/03/2023UniversitarioFBC Melgar10
16/10/2022UniversitarioFBC Melgar11
29/05/2022FBC MelgarUniversitario20
31/10/2021FBC MelgarUniversitario12
Recent Form
Universitario6W2D2L
20/09/2026
Deportivo GarcilasoUniversitario
Alianza LimaUniversitarioUniversitario
Comerciantes Unidos
UTC CajamarcaUniversitarioUniversitario
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
FC CajamarcaUniversitarioUniversitario
Sporting Cristal
CiencianoUniversitarioUniversitario
Cusco
ADTUniversitario
Deportivo GarcilasoUniversitario40
L13/09/2026Alianza LimaUniversitario12
W06/09/2026UniversitarioComerciantes Unidos22
D29/08/2026UTC CajamarcaUniversitario24
W24/08/2026UniversitarioClub Deportivo Los Chankas30
W16/08/2026FC CajamarcaUniversitario23
W08/08/2026UniversitarioSporting Cristal11
D03/08/2026CiencianoUniversitario20
L25/07/2026UniversitarioCusco21
W18/07/2026ADTUniversitario12
WFBC Melgar5W3D2L
20/09/2026FBC Melgar
Sport BoysCuscoFBC MelgarFBC MelgarADT
Atletico GrauFBC MelgarFBC MelgarAlianza LimaClub Deportivo Los ChankasFBC MelgarFBC MelgarFC Cajamarca
UCV MoqueguaFBC MelgarFBC MelgarSporting CristalCiencianoFBC Melgar
FBC MelgarSport Boys11
D12/09/2026CuscoFBC Melgar01
W07/09/2026FBC MelgarADT30
W01/09/2026Atletico GrauFBC Melgar10
L23/08/2026FBC MelgarAlianza Lima11
D15/08/2026Club Deportivo Los ChankasFBC Melgar03
W09/08/2026FBC MelgarFC Cajamarca24
L02/08/2026UCV MoqueguaFBC Melgar00
D26/07/2026FBC MelgarSporting Cristal21
W18/07/2026CiencianoFBC Melgar13
WReferee Profile
4.83Cards per match
4.40Yellow cards per match
0.42Red cards per match
25.9Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.83 cards a match, 0.67 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.50).
Cards come from 132 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Primera Division: Tabla Anual
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 30 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 50:20 | +30 | 65 | WWWWL |
| 2 | Universitario | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 52:34 | +18 | 56 | WLWLW |
| 3 | FBC Melgar | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 53:34 | +19 | 53 | WLWWL |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 47:33 | +14 | 51 | WWWLL |
| 5 | Cusco | 31 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 46:43 | +3 | 51 | DDWWL |
| 6 | Cienciano | 31 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 53:43 | +10 | 50 | WWDLW |
| 7 |  Alianza Atletico | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 48:46 | +2 | 46 | LWWLL |
| 8 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 39:51 | -12 | 46 | DLLWW |
| 9 | Sporting Cristal | 30 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 54:45 | +9 | 44 | DLLWL |
| 10 |  Sport Huancayo | 31 | 13 | 5 | 13 | 44:48 | -4 | 44 | WLLWD |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 34:33 | +1 | 41 | LDWLL |
| 12 |  Juan Pablo II College | 31 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 47:56 | -9 | 41 | LLDDL |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 41:44 | -3 | 34 | LWWDD |
| 14 | Atletico Grau | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 28:38 | -10 | 34 | LLLWL |
| 15 | ADT | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 33:45 | -12 | 30 | DWWDL |
| 16 | FC Cajamarca | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 44:60 | -16 | 28 | WWLLD |
| 17 | UCV Moquegua | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 25:46 | -21 | 28 | DLWLW |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 36:55 | -19 | 18 | LLDLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 30 | 50:20 | 65 |
| 2 | Universitario | 30 | 52:34 | 56 |
| 3 | FBC Melgar | 30 | 53:34 | 53 |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 31 | 47:33 | 51 |
| 5 | Cusco | 31 | 46:43 | 51 |
| 6 | Cienciano | 31 | 53:43 | 50 |
| 7 | Alianza Atletico | 31 | 48:46 | 46 |
| 8 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 31 | 39:51 | 46 |
| 9 | Sporting Cristal | 30 | 54:45 | 44 |
| 10 | Sport Huancayo | 31 | 44:48 | 44 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 30 | 34:33 | 41 |
| 12 | Juan Pablo II College | 31 | 47:56 | 41 |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 30 | 41:44 | 34 |
| 14 | Atletico Grau | 31 | 28:38 | 34 |
| 15 | ADT | 31 | 33:45 | 30 |
| 16 | FC Cajamarca | 31 | 44:60 | 28 |
| 17 | UCV Moquegua | 31 | 25:46 | 28 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 31 | 36:55 | 18 |
Primera Division: Apertura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30:8 | +22 | 40 | WWWWL |
| 2 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 25:21 | +4 | 34 | DLLWW |
| 3 | Cienciano | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 34:22 | +12 | 33 | WWDLW |
| 4 | Universitario | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24:15 | +9 | 29 | WLWLW |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29:20 | +9 | 28 | WLWWL |
| 6 | Cusco | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 21:24 | -3 | 27 | DDWWL |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21:18 | +3 | 26 | WWWLL |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20:18 | +2 | 21 | LWWLL |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18:20 | -2 | 21 | LWWDD |
| 10 | ADT | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 22:21 | +1 | 20 | DWWDL |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 15:19 | -4 | 20 | LDWLL |
| 12 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 28:30 | -2 | 19 | DLLWL |
| 13 | UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 21:26 | -5 | 18 | LLDLD |
| 14 | UCV Moquegua | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 17:24 | -7 | 18 | DLWLW |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 23:28 | -5 | 17 | WWLLD |
| 16 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 12:18 | -6 | 16 | LLLWL |
| 17 | Sport Huancayo | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 21:31 | -10 | 16 | WLLWD |
| 18 | Juan Pablo II College | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 22:40 | -18 | 16 | LLDDL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 30:8 | 40 |
| 2 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 17 | 25:21 | 34 |
| 3 | Cienciano | 17 | 34:22 | 33 |
| 4 | Universitario | 17 | 24:15 | 29 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 29:20 | 28 |
| 6 | Cusco | 17 | 21:24 | 27 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 21:18 | 26 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 20:18 | 21 |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 18:20 | 21 |
| 10 | ADT | 17 | 22:21 | 20 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 17 | 15:19 | 20 |
| 12 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 28:30 | 19 |
| 13 | UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 21:26 | 18 |
| 14 | UCV Moquegua | 17 | 17:24 | 18 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 17 | 23:28 | 17 |
| 16 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 12:18 | 16 |
| 17 | Sport Huancayo | 17 | 21:31 | 16 |
| 18 | Juan Pablo II College | 17 | 22:40 | 16 |
Primera Division: Clausura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sport Huancayo | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 23:17 | +6 | 28 | WLLWD |
| 2 | Universitario | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 28:19 | +9 | 27 | WLWLW |
| 3 | Sporting Cristal | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 26:15 | +11 | 25 | DLLWL |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 26:15 | +11 | 25 | WWWLL |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 24:14 | +10 | 25 | WLWWL |
| 6 | Juan Pablo II College | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 25:16 | +9 | 25 | LLDDL |
| 7 | Alianza Lima | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 20:12 | +8 | 25 | WWWWL |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 28:28 | 0 | 25 | LWWLL |
| 9 | Cusco | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 25:19 | +6 | 24 | DDWWL |
| 10 | Sport Boys | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 19:14 | +5 | 21 | LDWLL |
| 11 | Atletico Grau | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 16:20 | -4 | 18 | LLLWL |
| 12 | Cienciano | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 19:21 | -2 | 17 | WWDLW |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 23:24 | -1 | 13 | LWWDD |
| 14 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14:30 | -16 | 12 | DLLWW |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 21:32 | -11 | 11 | WWLLD |
| 16 | ADT | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 11:24 | -13 | 10 | DWWDL |
| 17 | UCV Moquegua | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 8:22 | -14 | 10 | DLWLW |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 15:29 | -14 | 5 | LLDLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sport Huancayo | 14 | 23:17 | 28 |
| 2 | Universitario | 13 | 28:19 | 27 |
| 3 | Sporting Cristal | 13 | 26:15 | 25 |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 14 | 26:15 | 25 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 13 | 24:14 | 25 |
| 6 | Juan Pablo II College | 14 | 25:16 | 25 |
| 7 | Alianza Lima | 13 | 20:12 | 25 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 14 | 28:28 | 25 |
| 9 | Cusco | 14 | 25:19 | 24 |
| 10 | Sport Boys | 13 | 19:14 | 21 |
| 11 | Atletico Grau | 14 | 16:20 | 18 |
| 12 | Cienciano | 14 | 19:21 | 17 |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 13 | 23:24 | 13 |
| 14 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 14 | 14:30 | 12 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 14 | 21:32 | 11 |
| 16 | ADT | 14 | 11:24 | 10 |
| 17 | UCV Moquegua | 14 | 8:22 | 10 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 14 | 15:29 | 5 |
PromotionRelegation
Explore more predictions
This match
More Primera División matches
- Atletico Grau vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas 08/10/26
- Deportivo Garcilaso vs Sport Huancayo 10/10/26
- ADT vs FC Cajamarca 10/10/26
- Comerciantes Unidos vs Juan Pablo II College 10/10/26
- Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico 11/10/26
- Cusco vs Alianza Lima 12/10/26
- Sport Huancayo vs Cusco 16/10/26
- Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Boys 17/10/26
About the Universitario vs FBC Melgar forecast
The forecasts for this Primera División match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Universitario and FBC Melgar in the Primera División table
This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Universitario are 2nd in the Primera División, 3 points ahead of FBC Melgar in 3rd. League goal record so far: Universitario 52-34, FBC Melgar 53-34. The full standings are on the Primera División Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.