AC Milan vs Atalanta Prediction

AC Milan
3-2
Finished
HT 2-0
Atalanta
San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan·Daniele Chiffi 18/10/2026
AC MilanAC Milan
3-2
Finished
AtalantaAtalanta

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
79%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.20
SignalHIGHModel55%SurpriseMediumGap-4.2%
Value Analysis
70%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Over 1.5
1.58
SignalGOODModel70%SurpriseMediumGap+7.9%
AC Milan Rest
2 days
Atalanta Rest
2 days

AC Milan vs Atalanta: result, form and history

AC Milan beat Atalanta 3-2 in the Serie A on 18 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.7 goals, with both teams scoring in 7 of them. Referee Daniele Chiffi averages 4.02 cards a game, 0.55 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
55%1.75
X
24%3.88
2
21%4.50
Double Chance
1X
79%1.20
X2
45%2.05
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%1.60
No
43%2.22
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.71 + 1.07 = 2.78
Over 1.5
79%1.19
Over 2.5
57%1.65
Over 3.5
37%2.53
Under 1.5
21%4.45
Under 2.5
43%2.23
Under 3.5
63%1.50
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.9 + 3.6 = 9.5
Over 8.5
58%1.67
Over 9.5
47%2.10
Over 10.5
36%2.75
Under 8.5
42%2.15
Under 9.5
53%1.67
Under 10.5
64%1.38
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.4 = 4.4
Over 3.5
65%2.00
Over 4.5
46%2.51
Under 3.5
35%1.73
Under 4.5
54%1.51

Match Events

13'Goal cancelledChristian Pulisic
20'Sead Kolašinac INRelja Obric out
22'Penalty confirmedYunus Musah
24'Gonçalo Ramos(Penalty)
41'Adrien RabiotDissent
43'Adrien RabiotAssist: Diego Moreira
53'Samuel Chukwueze INOmari Hutchinson out
55'Penalty confirmedAdrien Rabiot
57'Gonçalo Ramos(Penalty missed)
57'Mario GilaAssist: Adrien Rabiot
59'Mario Pašalić INGianluca Gaetano out
59'Jonathan Rowe INNicola Zalewski out
66'Gianluca GaetanoAssist: Nicola Zalewski
68'Éderson José dos SantosFoul
75'Lazar Samardzic INGianluca Scamacca out
75'Lorenzo Bernasconi INDavide Zappacosta out
75'Christian Pulisic INArdon Jashari out
75'Yunus Musah INPervis Estupinan out
75'Luka Modrić INRuben Loftus-Cheek out
78'Relja ObricFoul
81'Nikola KrstovićAssist: Raoul Bellanova
84'Mario Gila INFikayo Tomori out

Lineups

AC Milan
3-4-3Coach: Ruben Amorim
Atalanta
4-3-3Coach: M. Sarri
Avg rating6.76
Avg rating6.41
M. Maignan6.116M. Maignan
Mario Gila7.934M. Gila
K. De Winter6.75K. De Winter
S. Pavlović6.831S. Pavlović
S. Chukwueze6.121S. Chukwueze
Y. Musah6.780Y. Musah
L. Modrić6.814L. Modrić
Diego Moreira7.322D. Moreira
A. Rabiot9.012A. Rabiot
Gonçalo Ramos7.09G. Ramos
C. Pulišić6.311C. Pulišić
M. Carnesecchi6.529M. Carnesecchi
R. Bellanova7.016R. Bellanova
T. Kristensen6.231T. Kristensen
S. Kolašinac5.823S. Kolašinac
L. Bernasconi6.147L. Bernasconi
L. Samardžić6.310L. Samardžić
Éderson6.313Éderson
Mario Pasalic6.48M. Pasalic
C. De Ketelaere6.217C. De Ketelaere
N. Krstović7.690N. Krstović
J. Rowe6.811J. Rowe

AC Milan Substitutes

35V. Vladimirov
96L. Torriani
23F. Tomori84'for Mario Gila6.4
42F. Terracciano
8R. Loftus-Cheek75'for Luka Modrić5.9
30A. Jashari75'for Christian Pulisic6.4
20O. Hutchinson53'for Samuel Chukwueze6.9
2P. Estupiñán75'for Yunus Musah6.0
13S. Bocoum
28C. Comotto
70A. Cissè
73F. Camarda
41L. P. Bouyer
33D. Bartesaghi

Atalanta Substitutes

70G. Gaetano59'for Mario Pašalić66'7.2
77D. Zappacosta75'for Lorenzo Bernasconi5.9
41J. Idele
40R. Obrić20'for Sead Kolašinac78'5.8
53M. Plaia
9G. Scamacca75'for Lazar Samardzic6.6
51M. Sonzogni
57M. Sportiello
59N. Zalewski59'for Jonathan Rowe6.0
45D. Pounga

Match Stats

AC MilanAtalanta
56%Ball Possession44%
2Corner Kicks2
1Yellow Cards2
11Total Shots12
6Shots on Goal4
2Shots off Goal6
7Shots Inside Box6
4Shots Outside Box6
3Blocked Shots2
3Fouls10
1Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves3
602Total Passes460
547Passes Accurate421
91%Pass Accuracy92%

Team Comparison

AC MilanAC Milan
AtalantaAtalanta
1857Elo Rating 1785
2.05Attack 1.54
1.57Defense 1.13
56%Hit Rate 36%
9.5Shots per Game 16.2
4.9Shots on Target 4.7
3.0Corners per Game 6.1
2.4Cards per Game 1.8

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend70% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

AC MilanAC Milan
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
AtalantaAtalanta
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.1 vs 0.5 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

AC MilanAC Milan2Wins · 20%
Draws330%
AtalantaAtalanta5Wins · 50%
2.7Avg Goals
70%Both teams scored7 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10

Previous meetings

Serie A10/05/2026
AC MilanAtalanta
23
Serie A28/10/2025
AtalantaAC Milan
11
Serie A20/04/2025
AC MilanAtalanta
01
Serie A06/12/2024
AtalantaAC Milan
21
Serie A25/02/2024
AC MilanAtalanta
11
Coppa Italia10/01/2024
AC MilanAtalanta
12
Serie A09/12/2023
AtalantaAC Milan
32
Serie A26/02/2023
AC MilanAtalanta
20
Serie A21/08/2022
AtalantaAC Milan
11
Serie A15/05/2022
AC MilanAtalanta
20

Referee Profile

Daniele Chiffi135 matches

4.02Cards per match
3.86Yellow cards per match
0.16Red cards per match
24.2Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Daniele Chiffi4.02
Other referees4.57

4.02 cards a match, 0.55 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.57).

Cards come from 129 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1InterInter981025:10+1525WWWWD
2LazioLazio981022:7+1525WWWWW
3AS RomaAS Roma963023:8+1521WDWDD
4ComoComo962117:8+920WWWDL
5AC MilanAC Milan953118:11+718LWWDW
6FrosinoneFrosinone842217:13+414DWLWD
7JuventusJuventus842211:8+314WLDWL
8TorinoTorino941414:14013LWWWD
9CagliariCagliari94148:13-513LLLDW
10NapoliNapoli832313:10+311DLWDW
11BolognaBologna932412:12011WWLWD
12AtalantaAtalanta831414:15-110DLWLL
13LecceLecce83059:14-59LWLLW
14SassuoloSassuolo922514:22-88LLLDL
15MonzaMonza821515:18-37LWLWL
16GenoaGenoa82156:13-77WLWLD
17UdineseUdinese91269:18-95DLLLL
18ParmaParma91265:15-105DLLLW
19FiorentinaFiorentina81169:19-104LLLDW
20VeneziaVenezia91086:19-133LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1InterInter925:1025
2LazioLazio922:725
3AS RomaAS Roma923:821
4ComoComo917:820
5AC MilanAC Milan918:1118
6FrosinoneFrosinone817:1314
7JuventusJuventus811:814
8TorinoTorino914:1413
9CagliariCagliari98:1313
10NapoliNapoli813:1011
11BolognaBologna912:1211
12AtalantaAtalanta814:1510
13LecceLecce89:149
14SassuoloSassuolo914:228
15MonzaMonza815:187
16GenoaGenoa86:137
17UdineseUdinese99:185
18ParmaParma95:155
19FiorentinaFiorentina89:194
20VeneziaVenezia96:193
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the AC Milan vs Atalanta forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

AC Milan and Atalanta in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, AC Milan are 5th and Atalanta 12th, 8 points apart. League goal record so far: AC Milan 18-11, Atalanta 14-15. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

AC Milan have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.