AS Roma vs Cagliari Prediction

AS Roma
4-2
Finished
HT 2-1
Cagliari
Stadio Olimpico, Rome·Ermanno Feliciani 27/10/2026
AS RomaAS Roma
4-2
Finished
CagliariCagliari

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.22
SignalHIGHModel75%SurpriseMediumGap-2.4%
Value Analysis
77%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.29
SignalHIGHModel77%SurpriseMediumGap+3.0%
AS Roma Rest
3 days
Cagliari Rest
3 days

AS Roma vs Cagliari: the result in context

AS Roma beat Cagliari 4-2 in the Serie A on 27 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

AS Roma have had the better of this fixture, winning 7 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.7 goals a game. Referee Ermanno Feliciani averages 3.48 cards a game, 1.06 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
73%1.29
X
17%5.49
2
10%11.00
Double Chance
1X
90%1.05
X2
27%3.60
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%2.23
No
53%1.60
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.02 + 0.82 = 2.84
Over 1.5
80%1.22
Over 2.5
59%1.74
Over 3.5
37%2.77
Under 1.5
20%4.13
Under 2.5
41%2.11
Under 3.5
63%1.40
Corners
Projected Corners: 7.4 + 3.7 = 11
Over 8.5
73%1.58
Over 9.5
63%2.00
Over 10.5
53%2.55
Under 8.5
27%2.25
Under 9.5
37%1.76
Under 10.5
47%1.44
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.4 + 2.1 = 3.5
Over 3.5
46%2.44
Over 4.5
27%3.73
Under 3.5
54%1.53
Under 4.5
73%1.26

Match Events

7'Penalty confirmedMichel Adopo
10'M'Bala Nzola(Penalty)
15'Emanuele LulliAssist: Nahuel Molina
21'Niccolò PisilliAssist: Emanuele Lulli
45'Nahuel Molina INWesley Vinícius França Lima out
56'Santiago Thomas Castro INDonyell Malen out
56'Marten de Roon INRodrigo Mora out
63'M'Bala Nzola INPaul Mendy out
76'Emanuele Lulli INDevyne Rensch out
76'Alieu Fadera INDaniel Maldini out
76'Alessandro Deiola INJoseph Liteta out
81'Daniel MaldiniAssist: Adam Obert
82'Gianluca Mancini INDaniele Ghilardi out
85'Rodrigo MoraAssist: Daniele Ghilardi
87'Donyell Malen
90+1'Michel Adopo INYanis Massolin out
90+1'Yukinari Sugawara INYael Trepy out
90+4'Juan RodriguezFoul

Lineups

AS Roma
3-5-2Coach: G. Gasperini
Cagliari
3-5-1-1Coach: F. Pisacane
Avg rating6.91
Avg rating6.44
P. Gollini7.995P. Gollini
G. Mancini6.323G. Mancini
E. Ndicka6.55E. Ndicka
K. Koulierakis6.63K. Koulierakis
E. Lulli7.877E. Lulli
B. Cristante6.64B. Cristante
M. de Roon6.815M. de Roon
N. Pisilli7.461N. Pisilli
N. Molina7.120N. Molina
M. Soulé6.918M. Soulé
S. Castro6.59S. Castro
E. Caprile6.01E. Caprile
Zé Pedro5.92Z. Pedro
Y. Mina6.126Y. Mina
J. Rodríguez6.715J. Rodríguez
Y. Sugawara6.028Y. Sugawara
M. Adopo6.48M. Adopo
A. Romano6.54A. Romano
A. Deiola6.214A. Deiola
A. Obert7.133A. Obert
A. Fadera6.339A. Fadera
M'Bala Nzola6.818M. Nzola

AS Roma Substitutes

43Wesley45'for Nahuel Molina6.4
32D. Vásquez
2D. Rensch76'for Emanuele Lulli6.1
14D. Malen56'for Santiago Thomas Castro87'7.2
22Hermoso
87D. Ghilardi82'for Gianluca Mancini6.3
63Alessandro Di Nunzio
70G. De Marzi
78Mandjou Camara
26L. Balerdi
86Rodrigo Mora56'for Marten de Roon85'8.2

Cagliari Substitutes

10J. Fazzini
19Y. Trepy90+1'for Yukinari Sugawara
21R. Gagliardini
9Kevin Carlos
22R. Kofler
27J. Liteta76'for Alessandro Deiola5.7
70D. Maldini76'for Alieu Fadera81'8.1
79Y. Massolin90+1'for Michel Adopo
31P. Mendy63'for M'Bala Nzola6.5
23B. Radunović
12A. Sherri
32Ivan Stoyanov Sulev
20R. Ciervo
24G. Aurelio

Match Stats

AS RomaCagliari
61%Ball Possession39%
7Corner Kicks8
0Yellow Cards1
20Total Shots19
8Shots on Goal8
5Shots off Goal7
13Shots Inside Box12
7Shots Outside Box7
7Blocked Shots4
8Fouls8
2Offsides3
6Goalkeeper Saves4
584Total Passes372
507Passes Accurate296
6Free Kicks7

Team Comparison

AS RomaAS Roma
CagliariCagliari
1942Elo Rating 1685
3.30Attack 0.85
1.21Defense 0.52
63%Hit Rate 14%
20.4Shots per Game 10.5
6.8Shots on Target 4.0
7.5Corners per Game 4.1
1.7Cards per Game 1.7

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+258 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.85 goals
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

AS RomaAS Roma
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2.2 vs 1.1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
CagliariCagliari
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

AS RomaAS Roma7Wins · 70%
Draws110%
CagliariCagliari2Wins · 20%
2.7Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
50%3+ goals5 of 10

Previous meetings

Serie A09/02/2026
AS RomaCagliari
20
Serie A07/12/2025
CagliariAS Roma
10
Serie A16/03/2025
AS RomaCagliari
10
Serie A18/08/2024
CagliariAS Roma
00
Serie A05/02/2024
AS RomaCagliari
40
Serie A08/10/2023
CagliariAS Roma
14
Serie A16/01/2022
AS RomaCagliari
10
Serie A27/10/2021
CagliariAS Roma
12
Serie A25/04/2021
CagliariAS Roma
32
Serie A23/12/2020
AS RomaCagliari
32

Referee Profile

Ermanno Feliciani111 matches

3.48Cards per match
3.37Yellow cards per match
0.11Red cards per match
25.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Ermanno Feliciani3.48
Other referees4.54

3.48 cards a match, 1.06 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.54).

Cards come from 75 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1LazioLazio1091024:8+1628WWWWW
2InterInter1081126:13+1325LWWWW
3AS RomaAS Roma1073028:10+1824WWDWD
4ComoComo1072118:8+1023WWWWD
5AC MilanAC Milan1063121:12+921WLWWD
6FrosinoneFrosinone1062224:14+1020WWDWL
7NapoliNapoli942317:11+614WDLWD
8BolognaBologna1042414:13+114WWWLW
9JuventusJuventus942311:10+114LWLDW
10TorinoTorino1041514:16-213LLWWW
11GenoaGenoa1041510:14-413WWWLW
12CagliariCagliari104159:15-613LLLLD
13AtalantaAtalanta932416:17-111DDLWL
14LecceLecce1030711:21-109LLLWL
15SassuoloSassuolo922514:22-88LLLDL
16MonzaMonza1021717:24-77LLLWL
17FiorentinaFiorentina912611:21-105DLLLD
18ParmaParma91265:15-105DLLLW
19UdineseUdinese1012711:23-125LDLLL
20VeneziaVenezia101096:20-143LLLWL
#TeamMPGPts
1LazioLazio1024:828
2InterInter1026:1325
3AS RomaAS Roma1028:1024
4ComoComo1018:823
5AC MilanAC Milan1021:1221
6FrosinoneFrosinone1024:1420
7NapoliNapoli917:1114
8BolognaBologna1014:1314
9JuventusJuventus911:1014
10TorinoTorino1014:1613
11GenoaGenoa1010:1413
12CagliariCagliari109:1513
13AtalantaAtalanta916:1711
14LecceLecce1011:219
15SassuoloSassuolo914:228
16MonzaMonza1017:247
17FiorentinaFiorentina911:215
18ParmaParma95:155
19UdineseUdinese1011:235
20VeneziaVenezia106:203
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the AS Roma vs Cagliari forecast

The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

AS Roma and Cagliari in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, AS Roma are 3rd and Cagliari 12th, 11 points apart. League goal record so far: AS Roma 28-10, Cagliari 9-15. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.