Botafogo SP vs Ceara Prediction

Botafogo SP
1-0
Finished
HT 0-0
Ceara
Estadio Santa Cruz, Ribeirao Preto·Jonathan Benkenstein Pinheiro 13/10/2026
Botafogo SPBotafogo SP
1-0
Finished
CearaCeara

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
75%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.28
SignalGOODModel44%SurpriseMediumGap-3.0%
Botafogo SP Rest
5 days
Ceara Rest
4 days

Botafogo SP vs Ceara: the result in context

Botafogo SP beat Ceara 1-0 in the Serie B on 13 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Ceara have had the better of this fixture, winning 3 of the 5 previous meetings, which averaged 3.6 goals a game. Referee Jonathan Benkenstein Pinheiro averages 3.83 cards a game, 1.55 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
43%2.12
X
32%3.14
2
25%3.50
Double Chance
1X
74%1.28
X2
57%1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%2.00
No
53%1.74
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.17 + 1.11 = 2.28
Over 1.5
66%1.40
Over 2.5
42%2.35
Over 3.5
21%4.33
Under 1.5
34%2.75
Under 2.5
58%1.57
Under 3.5
79%1.20
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.7 + 4.3 = 10
Over 8.5
67%1.25
Over 9.5
55%1.48
Over 10.5
45%1.81
Under 8.5
33%3.28
Under 9.5
45%2.41
Under 10.5
55%1.92
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.5 + 2.6 = 5.1
Over 3.5
75%-
Over 4.5
57%2.10
Under 3.5
25%-
Under 4.5
43%1.67

Match Events

44'MorelliFoul
59'Matheus Sales INMarco Antonio de Freitas Batistussi out
66'Luiz OtávioPersistent infringement
72'Enzo Lodovico INRian Santana out
72'Melquisedeque Costa De Oliveira INLenny Ivo Lobato Romanelli out
73'Kelvin Giacobe·Alves dos Santos INJosé Hugo Sousa dos Santos out
73'Gabriel de Souza Inocencio INPedro Henrique out
74'Hygor
78'Matheus Araujo INRenzo López out
83'Julio Cesar INRafael Ramos out
83'Vinicius Zanocelo INLucas Mugni out
83'Hygor INArthur Caíke out
84'Rafael Gava INHebert Willian Badaro Oliveira out
90+4'João Gabriel Santos BatistaFoul

Lineups

Botafogo SP
3-4-3Coach: Cláudio Tencati
Ceara
4-2-3-1Coach: Daniel Paulista
Avg rating6.87
Avg rating6.44
Victor Souza6.71V. Souza
Jonathan7.32Jonathan
Ericson7.33Ericson
Vilar7.64Vilar
Gabriel Inocêncio6.822G. Inocêncio
Everton Morelli6.28E. Morelli
Matheus Sales6.916M. Sales
Patrick Brey6.36P. Brey
Rafael Gava6.310R. Gava
Hygor7.79Hygor
Kelvin6.17Kelvin
Richard5.91Richard
Júlio7.018Júlio
Luiz Otávio6.74L. Otávio
Luiz Otávio7.113L. Otávio
Sanchez6.812Sanchez
Joao Gabriel6.481J. Gabriel
Vinicius Zanocelo6.525V. Zanocelo
6060E. Lodovico
Matheus Araújo6.18M. Araújo
Richard5.940Richard
Saulo Mineiro6.573S. Mineiro

Botafogo SP Substitutes

26Felipe Vieira
17Guilherme Queiróz
21Jadson Alves de Lima
20Yuri Felipe Santos da Conceição
18Arthur Caíke83'for Hygor6.5
34Badaró84'for Rafael Gava6.9
27Darlan
29Thiago Henrique
31Pedro Henrique73'for Gabriel de Souza Inocencio7.0
12Jordan
28Marco Antônio59'for Matheus Sales7.5
30Zé Hugo73'for Kelvin Giacobe·Alves dos Santos7.0

Ceara Substitutes

7Giovanni Pavani
16Rian Santana72'replaced by Enzo Lodovico
26Richardson
11N. Ferreira
33Éder
2Rafael Ramos83'for Julio Cesar6.7
23Caíque França
99Lucca
77Lenny Lobato72'for Melquisedeque Costa De Oliveira6.2
94R. López78'for Matheus Araujo6.3
10L. Mugni83'for Vinicius Zanocelo6.4
78Janderson Gabriel De Oliveira Martins

Match Stats

Botafogo SPCeara
52%Ball Possession48%
8Corner Kicks4
1Yellow Cards2
15Total Shots11
4Shots on Goal3
6Shots off Goal6
8Shots Inside Box5
7Shots Outside Box6
5Blocked Shots2
13Fouls18
1Offsides2
3Goalkeeper Saves3
337Total Passes320
254Passes Accurate249
18Free Kicks12

Team Comparison

Botafogo SPBotafogo SP
CearaCeara
1588Elo Rating 1611
1.29Attack 1.18
2.69Defense 1.95
86%Hit Rate 36%
11.0Shots per Game 13.1
3.9Shots on Target 3.9
6.3Corners per Game 5.2
2.2Cards per Game 2.2

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

Botafogo SPBotafogo SP
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
CearaCeara
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

Botafogo SPBotafogo SP1Wins · 20%
Draws120%
CearaCeara3Wins · 60%
3.6Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored3 of 5
80%3+ goals4 of 5

Previous meetings

Serie B21/06/2026
CearaBotafogo SP
01
Serie B13/11/2024
Botafogo SPCeara
14
Serie B26/07/2024
CearaBotafogo SP
41
Serie B04/11/2023
Botafogo SPCeara
22
Serie B08/07/2023
CearaBotafogo SP
30

Referee Profile

Jonathan Benkenstein Pinheiro100 matches

3.83Cards per match
3.55Yellow cards per match
0.28Red cards per match
27.7Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Jonathan Benkenstein Pinheiro3.83
Other referees5.38

3.83 cards a match, 1.55 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.38).

Cards come from 60 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie B 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1NovorizontinoNovorizontino351810762:30+3264WDWWW
2JuventudeJuventude351810745:23+2264WDDWW
3Vila NovaVila Nova35188950:36+1462LDWDW
4Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC351613643:31+1261DWDWD
5CriciumaCriciuma351781036:30+659LWWLW
6CRBCRB351671253:49+455WLDWL
7Sport RecifeSport Recife351412947:38+954WLDWW
8Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense351412942:33+954LDDLW
9GoiasGoias351571336:40-452WDWWL
10Operario-PROperario-PR351491245:46-151WLLLL
11São BernardoSão Bernardo3513101249:39+1049WLDLW
12Botafogo SPBotafogo SP351381440:38+247WWWWL
13CuiabaCuiaba3511141032:28+447LLLDW
14Athletic ClubAthletic Club3510141140:40044LDDLL
15Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3511101439:46-743LDLLD
16CearaCeara3511101437:44-743LDLWW
17AvaiAvai351071833:45-1237LDWWL
18LondrinaLondrina35881944:51-732LWDLL
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro35652423:54-3123WWLLL
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta35362621:76-5515DDLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1NovorizontinoNovorizontino3562:3064
2JuventudeJuventude3545:2364
3Vila NovaVila Nova3550:3662
4Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC3543:3161
5CriciumaCriciuma3536:3059
6CRBCRB3553:4955
7Sport RecifeSport Recife3547:3854
8Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense3542:3354
9GoiasGoias3536:4052
10Operario-PROperario-PR3545:4651
11São BernardoSão Bernardo3549:3949
12Botafogo SPBotafogo SP3540:3847
13CuiabaCuiaba3532:2847
14Athletic ClubAthletic Club3540:4044
15Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3539:4643
16CearaCeara3537:4443
17AvaiAvai3533:4537
18LondrinaLondrina3544:5132
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro3523:5423
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta3521:7615
PromotionRelegation

About the Botafogo SP vs Ceara forecast

The forecasts for this Serie B match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Botafogo SP and Ceara in the Serie B table

In the Serie B table, Botafogo SP are 12th and Ceara 16th, 4 points apart. League goal record so far: Botafogo SP 40-38, Ceara 37-44. The full standings are on the Serie B Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.