FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso Prediction
Peru · Clausura - 12
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
78%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.18
SignalHIGHModel51%SurpriseMediumGap-6.7%
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Over 8.5
1.55
SignalGOODModel67%SurpriseMediumGap+4.4%
FBC Melgar Rest
6 days
Deportivo Garcilaso Rest
7 days
FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso: the result in context
FBC Melgar beat Deportivo Garcilaso 4-2 in the Primera División on 18 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.1 a game across 7 meetings, with both teams scoring in 6.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
155%1.40
X25%4.50
220%6.74
Double Chance
1X80%1.10
X245%2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes52%1.81
No48%1.90
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.56 + 1.01 = 2.57
Over 1.578%1.18
Over 2.557%1.59
Over 3.535%2.50
Under 1.522%4.40
Under 2.543%2.26
Under 3.565%1.46
Corners
Projected Corners: 6 + 4.2 = 10.2
Over 8.567%1.55
Over 9.555%1.95
Over 10.544%2.50
Under 8.533%2.23
Under 9.545%1.77
Under 10.556%1.44
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.2 + 2.9 = 5.1
Over 3.575%-
Over 4.557%-
Under 3.525%-
Under 4.543%-
Match Events
5'Facundo CastelliDissent
9'Facundo CastelliAssist: Pablo Labrin
39'Nicolas QuagliataAssist: Matías Lazo
57'Francisco ArancibiaAssist: Pablo Labrin
60'Carlos RamosDissent
62'Johnny Vidales(Penalty)
64'Nicolas QuagliataDissent
68'Nelson Cabanillas INHoracio Orzan out
71'Facundo Castelli INFernando Pacheco out
73'Bernardo Cuesta
74'Johnny Vidales INLautaro Guzmán out
76'Cristian BordacaharAssist: Horacio Orzan
81'Cristian Bordacahar INFranco Zanelatto out
82'Kevin Minda INJesús Alcantar out
83'Carlos Ramos INClaudio Torrejón out
83'Pablo Labrin INAdrian Ascues out
83'Beto Da Silva INChristopher Olivares out
88'Xavi Moreno Layme INJosé Anthony Rosell out
90+5'Walter TandazoDissent
Lineups
FBC MelgarDeportivo Garcilaso
4-1-4-1Coach: Lisandro GreppoAvg ratingAvg rating
21J. Cabezudo
33M. Lazo
23J. Escobar
3L. González
27N. Cabanillas
25K. Minda
24W. Tandazo
7C. Bordacahar
10N. Quagliata
11J. Vidales
9B. Cuesta
1P. Zubczuk
55E. Canales
2A. Salazar
19A. Gómez
23X. Moreno
8A. González
11F. Arancibia
10P. Labrin
18C. Ramos
30L. da Silva
9F. CastelliFBC Melgar Substitutes
90J. Alcántar82'for Kevin Minda
12C. Cáceda
80J. D´Arrigo
5A. Deneumostier
8L. Guzmán74'for Johnny Vidales
66H. Orzán68'for Nelson Cabanillas
26M. Portillo
77F. Zanelatto81'for Cristian Bordacahar
45Matias Zegarra
Deportivo Garcilaso Substitutes
7L. Ríos
20A. Rosell88'for Xavi Moreno Layme
17S. Ramírez
88F. Pacheco71'for Facundo Castelli
24C. Olivares83'for Beto Da Silva
35J. Mendoza
31J. Barbieri
27A. Ascues83'for Pablo Labrin
14C. Torrejón83'for Carlos Ramos
Match Stats
FBC MelgarDeportivo Garcilaso 64%Ball Possession36%
6Corner Kicks6
2Yellow Cards2
22Total Shots15
10Shots on Goal4
6Shots off Goal6
16Shots Inside Box8
6Shots Outside Box7
6Blocked Shots5
16Fouls6
1Offsides0
2Goalkeeper Saves6
497Total Passes276
426Passes Accurate204
4Free Kicks14
Team Comparison
FBC MelgarDeportivo Garcilaso1699Elo Rating 1661
2.15Attack 1.88
1.72Defense 1.25
64%Hit Rate 34%
16.1Shots per Game 18.9
7.0Shots on Target 6.4
5.2Corners per Game 6.5
2.1Cards per Game 2.2
AI Insights
📈BTTS Trend86% in H2H
Game State Tendencies
FBC Melgar- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.9 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Deportivo Garcilaso- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 7 meetings, all competitions
FBC Melgar1Wins · 14%Draws343%
Deportivo Garcilaso3Wins · 43%
3Wins · 43%3.1Avg Goals
86%Both teams scored6 of 7
57%3+ goals4 of 7
Previous meetings
28/04/2026Deportivo GarcilasoFBC Melgar10
19/09/2025Deportivo GarcilasoFBC Melgar11
18/04/2025FBC MelgarDeportivo Garcilaso12
03/11/2024FBC MelgarDeportivo Garcilaso11
25/05/2024Deportivo GarcilasoFBC Melgar13
02/07/2023Deportivo GarcilasoFBC Melgar22
15/05/2023FBC MelgarDeportivo Garcilaso24
Recent Form
FBC Melgar4W4D2L
11/10/2026
UniversitarioFBC MelgarFBC Melgar
Sport Boys
CuscoFBC MelgarFBC Melgar
ADT
Atletico GrauFBC MelgarFBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
Club Deportivo Los ChankasFBC MelgarFBC Melgar
FC Cajamarca
UCV MoqueguaFBC MelgarFBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
UniversitarioFBC Melgar22
D20/09/2026FBC MelgarSport Boys11
D12/09/2026CuscoFBC Melgar01
W07/09/2026FBC MelgarADT30
W01/09/2026Atletico GrauFBC Melgar10
L23/08/2026FBC MelgarAlianza Lima11
D15/08/2026Club Deportivo Los ChankasFBC Melgar03
W09/08/2026FBC MelgarFC Cajamarca24
L02/08/2026UCV MoqueguaFBC Melgar00
D26/07/2026FBC MelgarSporting Cristal21
WDeportivo Garcilaso7W1D2L
10/10/2026Deportivo Garcilaso
Sport HuancayoDeportivo GarcilasoUniversitarioSport BoysDeportivo GarcilasoDeportivo GarcilasoAtletico GrauAlianza LimaDeportivo GarcilasoDeportivo GarcilasoCuscoDeportivo GarcilasoUCV MoqueguaADTDeportivo GarcilasoDeportivo GarcilasoFC Cajamarca
Deportivo GarcilasoSport Huancayo01
L20/09/2026Deportivo GarcilasoUniversitario40
W13/09/2026Sport BoysDeportivo Garcilaso10
L06/09/2026Deportivo GarcilasoAtletico Grau42
W30/08/2026Alianza LimaDeportivo Garcilaso01
W23/08/2026Deportivo GarcilasoCusco41
W17/08/2026
CiencianoDeportivo Garcilaso
09/08/2026CiencianoDeportivo Garcilaso00
DDeportivo GarcilasoUCV Moquegua20
W02/08/2026ADTDeportivo Garcilaso01
W27/07/2026Deportivo GarcilasoFC Cajamarca21
WReferee Profile
5.42Cards per match
5.09Yellow cards per match
0.33Red cards per match
24.9Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
5.42 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.27).
Cards come from 184 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Primera Division: Tabla Anual
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 30 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 50:20 | +30 | 65 | WWWWL |
| 2 | Universitario | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 52:34 | +18 | 56 | WLWLW |
| 3 | FBC Melgar | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 53:34 | +19 | 53 | WLWWL |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 47:33 | +14 | 51 | WWWLL |
| 5 | Cusco | 31 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 46:43 | +3 | 51 | DDWWL |
| 6 | Cienciano | 31 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 53:43 | +10 | 50 | WWDLW |
| 7 |  Alianza Atletico | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 48:46 | +2 | 46 | LWWLL |
| 8 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 39:51 | -12 | 46 | DLLWW |
| 9 | Sporting Cristal | 30 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 54:45 | +9 | 44 | DLLWL |
| 10 | Sport Huancayo | 31 | 13 | 5 | 13 | 44:48 | -4 | 44 | WLLWD |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 34:33 | +1 | 41 | LDWLL |
| 12 |  Juan Pablo II College | 31 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 47:56 | -9 | 41 | LLDDL |
| 13 |  Comerciantes Unidos | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 41:44 | -3 | 34 | LWWDD |
| 14 | Atletico Grau | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 28:38 | -10 | 34 | LLLWL |
| 15 | ADT | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 33:45 | -12 | 30 | DWWDL |
| 16 | FC Cajamarca | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 44:60 | -16 | 28 | WWLLD |
| 17 | UCV Moquegua | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 25:46 | -21 | 28 | DLWLW |
| 18 |  UTC Cajamarca | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 36:55 | -19 | 18 | LLDLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 30 | 50:20 | 65 |
| 2 | Universitario | 30 | 52:34 | 56 |
| 3 | FBC Melgar | 30 | 53:34 | 53 |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 31 | 47:33 | 51 |
| 5 | Cusco | 31 | 46:43 | 51 |
| 6 | Cienciano | 31 | 53:43 | 50 |
| 7 | Alianza Atletico | 31 | 48:46 | 46 |
| 8 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 31 | 39:51 | 46 |
| 9 | Sporting Cristal | 30 | 54:45 | 44 |
| 10 | Sport Huancayo | 31 | 44:48 | 44 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 30 | 34:33 | 41 |
| 12 | Juan Pablo II College | 31 | 47:56 | 41 |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 30 | 41:44 | 34 |
| 14 | Atletico Grau | 31 | 28:38 | 34 |
| 15 | ADT | 31 | 33:45 | 30 |
| 16 | FC Cajamarca | 31 | 44:60 | 28 |
| 17 | UCV Moquegua | 31 | 25:46 | 28 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 31 | 36:55 | 18 |
Primera Division: Apertura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30:8 | +22 | 40 | WWWWL |
| 2 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 25:21 | +4 | 34 | DLLWW |
| 3 | Cienciano | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 34:22 | +12 | 33 | WWDLW |
| 4 | Universitario | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24:15 | +9 | 29 | WLWLW |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29:20 | +9 | 28 | WLWWL |
| 6 | Cusco | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 21:24 | -3 | 27 | DDWWL |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21:18 | +3 | 26 | WWWLL |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20:18 | +2 | 21 | LWWLL |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18:20 | -2 | 21 | LWWDD |
| 10 | ADT | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 22:21 | +1 | 20 | DWWDL |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 15:19 | -4 | 20 | LDWLL |
| 12 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 28:30 | -2 | 19 | DLLWL |
| 13 | UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 21:26 | -5 | 18 | LLDLD |
| 14 | UCV Moquegua | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 17:24 | -7 | 18 | DLWLW |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 23:28 | -5 | 17 | WWLLD |
| 16 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 12:18 | -6 | 16 | LLLWL |
| 17 | Sport Huancayo | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 21:31 | -10 | 16 | WLLWD |
| 18 | Juan Pablo II College | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 22:40 | -18 | 16 | LLDDL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 30:8 | 40 |
| 2 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 17 | 25:21 | 34 |
| 3 | Cienciano | 17 | 34:22 | 33 |
| 4 | Universitario | 17 | 24:15 | 29 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 29:20 | 28 |
| 6 | Cusco | 17 | 21:24 | 27 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 21:18 | 26 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 20:18 | 21 |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 18:20 | 21 |
| 10 | ADT | 17 | 22:21 | 20 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 17 | 15:19 | 20 |
| 12 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 28:30 | 19 |
| 13 | UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 21:26 | 18 |
| 14 | UCV Moquegua | 17 | 17:24 | 18 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 17 | 23:28 | 17 |
| 16 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 12:18 | 16 |
| 17 | Sport Huancayo | 17 | 21:31 | 16 |
| 18 | Juan Pablo II College | 17 | 22:40 | 16 |
Primera Division: Clausura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sport Huancayo | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 23:17 | +6 | 28 | WLLWD |
| 2 | Universitario | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 28:19 | +9 | 27 | WLWLW |
| 3 | Sporting Cristal | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 26:15 | +11 | 25 | DLLWL |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 26:15 | +11 | 25 | WWWLL |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 24:14 | +10 | 25 | WLWWL |
| 6 | Juan Pablo II College | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 25:16 | +9 | 25 | LLDDL |
| 7 | Alianza Lima | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 20:12 | +8 | 25 | WWWWL |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 28:28 | 0 | 25 | LWWLL |
| 9 | Cusco | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 25:19 | +6 | 24 | DDWWL |
| 10 | Sport Boys | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 19:14 | +5 | 21 | LDWLL |
| 11 | Atletico Grau | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 16:20 | -4 | 18 | LLLWL |
| 12 | Cienciano | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 19:21 | -2 | 17 | WWDLW |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 23:24 | -1 | 13 | LWWDD |
| 14 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14:30 | -16 | 12 | DLLWW |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 21:32 | -11 | 11 | WWLLD |
| 16 | ADT | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 11:24 | -13 | 10 | DWWDL |
| 17 | UCV Moquegua | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 8:22 | -14 | 10 | DLWLW |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 15:29 | -14 | 5 | LLDLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sport Huancayo | 14 | 23:17 | 28 |
| 2 | Universitario | 13 | 28:19 | 27 |
| 3 | Sporting Cristal | 13 | 26:15 | 25 |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 14 | 26:15 | 25 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 13 | 24:14 | 25 |
| 6 | Juan Pablo II College | 14 | 25:16 | 25 |
| 7 | Alianza Lima | 13 | 20:12 | 25 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 14 | 28:28 | 25 |
| 9 | Cusco | 14 | 25:19 | 24 |
| 10 | Sport Boys | 13 | 19:14 | 21 |
| 11 | Atletico Grau | 14 | 16:20 | 18 |
| 12 | Cienciano | 14 | 19:21 | 17 |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 13 | 23:24 | 13 |
| 14 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 14 | 14:30 | 12 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 14 | 21:32 | 11 |
| 16 | ADT | 14 | 11:24 | 10 |
| 17 | UCV Moquegua | 14 | 8:22 | 10 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 14 | 15:29 | 5 |
PromotionRelegation
Explore more predictions
This match
More Primera División matches
- Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico 11/10/26
- Cusco vs Alianza Lima 12/10/26
- Sport Huancayo vs Cusco 16/10/26
- Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Boys 17/10/26
- Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau 18/10/26
- Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos 18/10/26
- FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua 18/10/26
- Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca 19/10/26
About the FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso forecast
The forecasts for this Primera División match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
FBC Melgar and Deportivo Garcilaso in the Primera División table
This is a meeting of two top-four sides: FBC Melgar are 3rd in the Primera División, 2 points ahead of Deportivo Garcilaso in 4th. League goal record so far: FBC Melgar 53-34, Deportivo Garcilaso 47-33. The full standings are on the Primera División Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.