France vs Belgium Prediction

France
4-1
Finished
HT 0-1
Belgium
Stade de France, Paris·Nick Walsh 05/10/2026
FranceFrance
4-1
Finished
BelgiumBelgium

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
65%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.48
SignalSOLIDModel64%SurpriseMediumGap-3.0%
France Rest
3 days
Belgium Rest
3 days

France vs Belgium: the result in context

France beat Belgium 4-1 in the UEFA Nations League on 5 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

France have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 6 previous meetings, which averaged 2.2 goals a game. France tend to win more corners, 5.9 a game to 2.9 for Belgium.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
64%1.48
X
22%4.60
2
14%6.30
Double Chance
1X
86%1.13
X2
36%2.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.65
No
47%2.12
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.95 + 0.96 = 2.91
Over 1.5
81%1.14
Over 2.5
60%1.53
Over 3.5
41%2.38
Under 1.5
19%4.97
Under 2.5
40%2.42
Under 3.5
59%1.57
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.1 + 3.3 = 9.4
Over 8.5
56%1.60
Over 9.5
45%2.01
Over 10.5
34%2.62
Under 8.5
44%2.22
Under 9.5
55%1.75
Under 10.5
66%1.43
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2.4 = 4.1
Over 3.5
59%1.67
Over 4.5
39%2.37
Under 3.5
41%2.11
Under 4.5
61%1.56

Match Events

35'Dodi LukebakioAssist: Romeo Lavia
57'Romeo LaviaFoul
60'Ousmane Dembélé INMichael Olise out
60'Maghnes Akliouche INRayan Cherki out
61'Manu Koné INLucas Da Cunha out
69'Maxence LacroixFoul
70'Dodi Lukebakio INMika Godts out
70'Romelu Lukaku INCharles De Ketelaere out
72'Bradley Barcola INDésiré Doue out
73'Mark van BommelDissent
75'Joaquin SeysFoul
77'Désiré DoueAssist: Lucas Da Cunha
81'Rayan CherkiAssist: Michael Olise
87'Romeo Lavia INMandela Keita out
87'Diego Moreira INLoïs Openda out
87'Hans Vanaken INLeandro Trossard out
88'Eduardo Camavinga INAdrien Rabiot out
88'Michael OliseAssist: Désiré Doue
90+1'Michael OliseAssist: Désiré Doue

Lineups

France
4-3-3Coach: Z. Zidane
Belgium
4-2-3-1Coach: M. van Bommel
Avg rating7.06
Avg rating6.33
G. Restes6.71G. Restes
J. Koundé7.15J. Koundé
L. Yoro7.615L. Yoro
M. Lacroix6.317M. Lacroix
A. Diouf6.413A. Diouf
M. Akliouche6.918M. Akliouche
E. Camavinga6.66E. Camavinga
M. Koné6.98M. Koné
O. Dembélé7.27O. Dembélé
E. Lepaul6.319E. Lepaul
B. Barcola6.412B. Barcola
M. Vandevoordt6.712M. Vandevoordt
T. Castagne5.621T. Castagne
N. Ngoy6.015N. Ngoy
B. Mechele6.24B. Mechele
J. Seys5.518J. Seys
N. Raskin6.223N. Raskin
R. Lavia7.06R. Lavia
D. Lukebakio8.114D. Lukebakio
H. Vanaken6.420H. Vanaken
Diego Moreira6.419D. Moreira
R. Lukaku6.39R. Lukaku

France Substitutes

23J. Butez
9R. Cherki60'for Maghnes Akliouche81'7.9
21L. da Cunha61'for Manu Koné7.0
20D. Doué72'for Bradley Barcola77'8.9
2P. Kalulu
16M. Maignan
11M. Olise60'for Ousmane Dembélé88'90+1'8.6
14A. Rabiot88'for Eduardo Camavinga6.2
3A. Truffert

Belgium Substitutes

10L. Trossard87'for Hans Vanaken5.9
3A. Theate
16K. Sabbe
13M. Penders
11L. Openda87'for Diego Moreira6.3
1S. Lammens
8M. Keita87'for Romeo Lavia5.8
7M. Godts70'for Dodi Lukebakio6.7
22M. Fernandez-Pardo
17C. De Ketelaere70'for Romelu Lukaku6.1
2Z. Debast
5M. De Cuyper

Match Stats

FranceBelgium
66%Ball Possession34%
9Corner Kicks2
1Yellow Cards2
23Total Shots5
8Shots on Goal2
6Shots off Goal3
14Shots Inside Box3
9Shots Outside Box2
9Blocked Shots0
4Fouls8
0Offsides1
1Goalkeeper Saves5
692Total Passes363
625Passes Accurate287
90%Pass Accuracy79%

Team Comparison

FranceFrance
BelgiumBelgium
1927Elo Rating 1787
2.23Attack 1.43
1.66Defense 1.45
63%Hit Rate 39%
18.5Shots per Game 11.4
7.3Shots on Target 4.8
5.9Corners per Game 2.9
1.2Cards per Game 3.0

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+139 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.9 goals
📈BTTS Trend33% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

FranceFrance
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2.2 vs 0 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
BelgiumBelgium
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 6 meetings, all competitions

FranceFrance6Wins · 100%
Draws00%
BelgiumBelgium0Wins · 0%
2.2Avg Goals
33%Both teams scored2 of 6
33%3+ goals2 of 6

Previous meetings

UEFA Nations League28/09/2026
BelgiumFrance
01
UEFA Nations League14/10/2024
BelgiumFrance
12
UEFA Nations League09/09/2024
FranceBelgium
20
Euro Championship01/07/2024
FranceBelgium
10
UEFA Nations League07/10/2021
BelgiumFrance
23
World Cup10/07/2018
FranceBelgium
10

Referee Profile

Nick Walsh216 matches

4.17Cards per match
3.97Yellow cards per match
0.20Red cards per match
24.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Nick Walsh4.17
Other referees3.99

4.17 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.99).

Cards come from 149 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FranceFrance43107:2+510WDWW
2ItalyItaly42118:5+37WDWL
3BelgiumBelgium42026:5+16LWLW
4TürkiyeTürkiye40042:11-90LLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FranceFrance47:210
2ItalyItaly48:57
3BelgiumBelgium46:56
4TürkiyeTürkiye42:110

About the France vs Belgium forecast

This is a UEFA Nations League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

France and Belgium in the UEFA Nations League table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: France are 1st in the UEFA Nations League, 4 points ahead of Belgium in 3rd. League goal record so far: France 7-2, Belgium 6-5. The full standings are on the UEFA Nations League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Belgium have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.