Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone Prediction

Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh·R. Lee 29/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
85%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.22
SignalSTRONGModel50%SurpriseMediumGap+3.5%
Value Analysis
69%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.62
SignalGOODModel47%SurpriseMediumGap+11.5%
Heart Of Midlothian Rest
2 days
ST Johnstone Rest
21 days

Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone: result, form and history

Heart Of Midlothian beat ST Johnstone 2-1 in the Premiership on 29 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Heart Of Midlothian have had the better of this fixture, winning 10 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.9 goals a game. Referee R. Lee averages 3.42 cards a game, 0.76 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
54%1.71
X
22%3.84
2
24%4.59
Double Chance
1X
76%1.18
X2
46%2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%1.69
No
45%2.06
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.8 + 1 = 2.80
Over 1.5
83%1.22
Over 2.5
59%1.73
Over 3.5
32%2.83
Under 1.5
17%4.05
Under 2.5
41%2.07
Under 3.5
68%1.41
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.6 + 4.5 = 10.1
Over 8.5
64%1.50
Over 9.5
53%1.85
Over 10.5
41%2.31
Under 8.5
36%2.42
Under 9.5
47%1.88
Under 10.5
59%1.52
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2.3 = 4.1
Over 3.5
51%1.57
Over 4.5
31%2.17
Under 3.5
49%2.25
Under 4.5
69%1.62

Match Events

9'James wilsonAssist: Josh Mcpake
39'Enes AlıçOG
48'Ruari PatonAssist: Sam Stanton
57'Laurent mendy INBlair Spittal out
57'James wilson INPierre Landry Kabore out
72'Sam Stanton INMacaulay Tait out
73'Ruari Paton INKai Fotheringham out
73'Jamie Gullan INTaylor Steven out
81'Sabah Kerjota INCalvin Miller out
90+2'Liam Smith INLogan Chalmers out

Lineups

Heart Of Midlothian
4-2-3-1Coach: Wouter Vrancken
ST Johnstone
4-4-2Coach: Simo Valakari
Avg rating6.81
Avg rating6.52
B. Reus6.51B. Reus
J. Altena6.523J. Altena
O. McEntee7.16O. McEntee
S. Findlay6.917S. Findlay
C. Borchgrevink6.72C. Borchgrevink
T. Magnússon7.222T. Magnússon
L. Mendy7.078L. Mendy
S. Kerjota6.429S. Kerjota
Cláudio Braga6.210C. Braga
J. McPake7.115J. McPake
J. Wilson7.821J. Wilson
T. Steward8.01T. Steward
L. Smith6.033L. Smith
Z. Mitchell6.15Z. Mitchell
C. Diabate6.43C. Diabate
E. Alıç5.32E. Alıç
S. Stanton7.211S. Stanton
R. McAlear6.242R. McAlear
J. Holt6.58J. Holt
J. Gullan6.310J. Gullan
R. Paton7.999R. Paton

Heart Of Midlothian Substitutes

9J. Williams
16B. Spittal57'for Laurent mendy6.8
30R. Fulton
19S. Guendouz
11P. Kabore57'for James wilson6.6
24Michael-John Kamson-Kamara
7C. Miller81'for Sabah Kerjota6.6
77A. Ba-Sy

ST Johnstone Substitutes

18K. Fotheringham73'for Ruari Paton6.4
14M. Foulds
6B. Mikulić
20R. Sinclair
25M. Tait72'for Sam Stanton6.2
23L. Chalmers90+2'for Liam Smith
4M. Boyes
26M. Todd
7T. Steven73'for Jamie Gullan6.4

Match Stats

Heart Of MidlothianST Johnstone
47%Ball Possession53%
8Corner Kicks4
16Total Shots9
7Shots on Goal4
7Shots off Goal3
9Shots Inside Box8
7Shots Outside Box1
2Blocked Shots2
11Fouls14
1Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves7
427Total Passes485
344Passes Accurate407
81%Pass Accuracy84%

Team Comparison

Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian
ST JohnstoneST Johnstone
1661Elo Rating 1580
1.39Attack 0.59
0.52Defense 1.39
17%Hit Rate 19%
16.6Shots per Game 8.5
4.2Shots on Target 3.1
4.0Corners per Game 2.6
2.2Cards per Game 2.2

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.8 goals
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
ST JohnstoneST Johnstone
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian10Wins · 100%
Draws00%
ST JohnstoneST Johnstone0Wins · 0%
2.9Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
70%3+ goals7 of 10

Previous meetings

Premiership14/05/2025
Heart Of MidlothianST Johnstone
21
Premiership23/02/2025
ST JohnstoneHeart Of Midlothian
12
Premiership22/12/2024
Heart Of MidlothianST Johnstone
21
Premiership02/11/2024
ST JohnstoneHeart Of Midlothian
12
Premiership07/02/2024
ST JohnstoneHeart Of Midlothian
01
Premiership25/11/2023
Heart Of MidlothianST Johnstone
10
Premiership05/08/2023
ST JohnstoneHeart Of Midlothian
02
Premiership04/03/2023
Heart Of MidlothianST Johnstone
30
Premiership28/12/2022
ST JohnstoneHeart Of Midlothian
23
Premiership28/08/2022
Heart Of MidlothianST Johnstone
32

Recent Form

ST JohnstoneST Johnstone
7W0D3L
08/08/2026
ST MirrenST Johnstone
10
L
02/08/2026
ST JohnstoneKilmarnock
43
W
25/07/2026
ST JohnstoneEast Fife
4151
L
21/07/2026
Inverness CTST Johnstone
10
L
18/07/2026
ST JohnstoneMorton
30
W
14/07/2026
Linlithgow RoseST Johnstone
02
W
11/07/2026
Cove RangersST Johnstone
24
W
04/07/2026
MontroseST Johnstone
03
W
30/06/2026
Forfar AthleticST Johnstone
04
W
01/05/2026
Ayr UtdST Johnstone
01
W

Referee Profile

R. Lee84 matches

3.42Cards per match
3.21Yellow cards per match
0.21Red cards per match
25.5Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

R. Lee3.42
Other referees4.18

3.42 cards a match, 0.76 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.18).

Cards come from 19 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Premiership 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1CelticCeltic1191127:8+1928DWWWL
2RangersRangers1173119:9+1024DWDWW
3Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian1162324:17+720DWLWD
4DundeeDundee1152417:13+417WLDWW
5Dundee UtdDundee Utd1144316:16016DWDWW
6FalkirkFalkirk1143413:12+115WWWLD
7ST MirrenST Mirren1142512:19-714DWLLL
8ST JohnstoneST Johnstone1134413:17-413DLDWD
9AberdeenAberdeen1132612:14-211LLWLD
10MotherwellMotherwell1123613:20-79DLLLL
11HibernianHibernian1122711:17-68DLLLD
12KilmarnockKilmarnock1122711:26-158LLWLD
#TeamMPGPts
1CelticCeltic1127:828
2RangersRangers1119:924
3Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian1124:1720
4DundeeDundee1117:1317
5Dundee UtdDundee Utd1116:1616
6FalkirkFalkirk1113:1215
7ST MirrenST Mirren1112:1914
8ST JohnstoneST Johnstone1113:1713
9AberdeenAberdeen1112:1411
10MotherwellMotherwell1113:209
11HibernianHibernian1111:178
12KilmarnockKilmarnock1111:268
PromotionRelegation

About the Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Heart Of Midlothian and ST Johnstone in the Premiership table

In the Premiership table, Heart Of Midlothian are 3rd and ST Johnstone 8th, 7 points apart. League goal record so far: Heart Of Midlothian 24-17, ST Johnstone 13-17. The full standings are on the Premiership Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.