Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima Prediction
Colombia · Clausura - 14
Estadio Jaragüay De Monteria, Monteria·Diaz Vargas, Carlos Alberto 11/10/2026
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
59%Trust
1X2
Away Win
1.60
SignalNEUTRALModel57%SurpriseMediumGap-3.2%
Jaguares Rest
8 days
Deportes Tolima Rest
2 days
Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima: the result in context
Jaguares beat Deportes Tolima 3-2 in the Primera A on 11 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Deportes Tolima have had the better of this fixture, winning 7 of the 9 previous meetings, which averaged 2.8 goals a game. Deportes Tolima tend to win more corners, 7.1 a game to 4.9 for Jaguares.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
117%5.43
X25%3.80
258%1.60
Double Chance
1X42%2.25
X284%1.14
Both Teams to Score
Yes51%1.88
No49%1.83
Goals
Projected Goals: 1 + 1.81 = 2.81
Over 1.575%1.28
Over 2.551%1.90
Over 3.530%3.25
Under 1.525%3.50
Under 2.549%1.86
Under 3.570%1.30
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.4 + 5.7 = 10.1
Over 8.565%1.61
Over 9.554%1.91
Over 10.543%2.41
Under 8.535%2.17
Under 9.546%1.79
Under 10.557%1.46
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.7 + 2.9 = 5.5
Over 3.580%-
Over 4.565%-
Under 3.520%-
Under 4.535%-
Match Events
19'Royscer Rafael Colpa BolanoFoul
28'Sebastian Guzman INJuan Jose Mera Gonzalez out
37'Ever ValenciaFoul
40'Luis JimenezAssist: Rafael Bustamante
45'Shean Barbosa INEdwar López out
52'Brayan RoviraFoul
58'Sergio Aguayo INLuis Sandoval out
64'Andrés Rentería INDarwin Lopez out
64'Cristian Alvarez INJohan Beltrán out
64'Johar Mejia INSantiago Cubides out
67'Johan BeltránAssist: Rafael Bustamante
68'Luis SandovalFoul
77'Adrián ParraAssist: Luis Sandoval
79'Brayan Rovira INJader Valencia out
81'Wilfrido De la Rosa INJose Yanez out
85'Juan Esteban Franco INAndres Felipe Alfonso Ciprian out
87'Adrián ParraAssist: Ever Valencia
90'Santiago CubidesFoul
90+3'Darwin Lopez
90+5'Johan BeltránFoul
Lineups
JaguaresDeportes Tolima
5-3-2Coach: L. SuárezAvg ratingAvg rating
12F. Mosquera
4J. Franco
6J. Lovera
29C. Henao
18L. Jiménez
5R. Colpa
21R. Bustamante
7W. De La Rosa
10C. Álvarez
9J. Mejia
11A. Rentería
1N. Volpi
33J. Mosquera
14H. Martínez
2A. Angulo
80B. Rovira
30S. P. Barbosa Gomez
8E. Valencia
20J. Hernández
32S. Guzmán
24A. Parra1515S. Aguayo
Jaguares Substitutes
2A. Alfonso85'for Juan Esteban Franco
16E. Beltrán64'for Cristian Alvarez67'90+5'
24S. Cubides64'for Johar Mejia90'
27F. Gracia
26Elio López
17D. López64'for Andrés Rentería90+3'
28D. Zuluaga
32Jose Yanez81'replaced by Wilfrido De la Rosa
34Cristian Castro
Deportes Tolima Substitutes
28E. López45'for Shean Barbosa
5J. Mera28'for Sebastian Guzman
34Gustavo Moreno
11J. Valencia79'for Brayan Rovira
13M. Ortega
16V. Reyes
9L. Sandoval58'replaced by Sergio Aguayo68'
29Néifer Sánchez
Match Stats
JaguaresDeportes Tolima 39%Ball Possession61%
0Corner Kicks8
3Yellow Cards3
9Total Shots18
5Shots on Goal6
1Shots off Goal8
3Shots Inside Box15
6Shots Outside Box3
3Blocked Shots4
14Fouls11
1Offsides0
4Goalkeeper Saves2
301Total Passes463
252Passes Accurate401
11Free Kicks13
Team Comparison
JaguaresDeportes Tolima1434Elo Rating 1545
1.01Attack 0.62
1.40Defense 1.69
37%Hit Rate 0%
12.3Shots per Game 14.9
3.3Shots on Target 5.4
4.9Corners per Game 7.1
2.5Cards per Game 3.5
AI Insights
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.81 goals
📉Away Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Jaguares- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.3 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Deportes Tolima- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
Head to Head
Last 9 meetings, all competitions
Jaguares0Wins · 0%Draws222%
Deportes Tolima7Wins · 78%
7Wins · 78%2.8Avg Goals
44%Both teams scored4 of 9
44%3+ goals4 of 9
Previous meetings
29/03/2026Deportes TolimaJaguares31
20/08/2024JaguaresDeportes Tolima02
16/02/2024Deportes TolimaJaguares20
07/10/2023JaguaresDeportes Tolima01
26/04/2023Deportes TolimaJaguares11
06/08/2022Deportes TolimaJaguares22
14/02/2022JaguaresDeportes Tolima02
30/08/2021JaguaresDeportes Tolima03
13/03/2021Deportes TolimaJaguares32
Recent Form
Jaguares1W4D5L
03/10/2026
Águilas DoradasJaguaresJaguares
Alianza Valledupar
Independiente MedellinJaguaresJaguares
Fortaleza FC
JuniorJaguaresJaguares
America de CaliJaguares
ChicoJaguares
Once Caldas
Internacional de BogotaJaguaresJaguares
Atletico Nacional
Águilas DoradasJaguares20
L27/09/2026JaguaresAlianza Valledupar12
L23/09/2026Independiente MedellinJaguares21
L12/09/2026JaguaresFortaleza FC22
D06/09/2026JuniorJaguares33
D29/08/2026JaguaresAmerica de Cali22
D21/08/2026JaguaresChico10
W10/08/2026JaguaresOnce Caldas11
D06/08/2026Internacional de BogotaJaguares10
L02/08/2026JaguaresAtletico Nacional03
LDeportes Tolima2W5D3L
09/10/2026Atletico NacionalDeportes TolimaDeportes TolimaChicoDeportes TolimaAmerica de Cali
Santa FeDeportes TolimaDeportes Tolima
Cucuta
Independiente del ValleDeportes TolimaDeportes Tolima
Bucaramanga
Atletico NacionalDeportes Tolima00
D03/10/2026Deportes TolimaChico00
D28/09/2026Fortaleza FCDeportes Tolima
21/09/2026Fortaleza FCDeportes Tolima22
DDeportes TolimaAmerica de Cali11
D17/09/2026Once CaldasDeportes Tolima
12/09/2026Once CaldasDeportes Tolima10
LSanta FeDeportes Tolima10
L08/09/2026
LlanerosDeportes Tolima
01/09/2026LlanerosDeportes Tolima12
WDeportes TolimaCucuta21
W26/08/2026Independiente del ValleDeportes Tolima31
L22/08/2026Deportes TolimaBucaramanga00
DLeague Table
Apertura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 35:15 | +20 | 40 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 31:24 | +7 | 35 | WWLWW |
| 3 |  Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 29:25 | +4 | 34 | WDLWW |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 25:15 | +10 | 33 | WLWLD |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 31:22 | +9 | 33 | WDDDL |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 27:17 | +10 | 31 | LDWWD |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29:22 | +7 | 29 | DDLWW |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 26:26 | 0 | 28 | LWDLL |
| 9 |  Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20:16 | +4 | 27 | LDWWL |
| 10 |  Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 31:23 | +8 | 26 | DLDWW |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26:24 | +2 | 26 | WWLDW |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 20:25 | -5 | 26 | LLWLW |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 26:20 | +6 | 23 | WLLLL |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 17:20 | -3 | 22 | LDWDD |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22:27 | -5 | 22 | LWDDL |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 20:33 | -13 | 18 | LWLDL |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 13:27 | -14 | 17 | LLWDL |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 15:32 | -17 | 17 | LWLWL |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22:35 | -13 | 16 | WDWDD |
| 20 |  Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 15:32 | -17 | 10 | DLLLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 35:15 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 31:24 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 29:25 | 34 |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 25:15 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 31:22 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 27:17 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 29:22 | 29 |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 26:26 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 20:16 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 31:23 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 26:24 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 20:25 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 26:20 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 17:20 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 22:27 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 20:33 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 13:27 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 15:32 | 17 |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 22:35 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 15:32 | 10 |
Clausura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 32:13 | +19 | 35 | WWDWW |
| 2 | America de Cali | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 31:12 | +19 | 34 | WLWLD |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 26:10 | +16 | 33 | LDWWL |
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 25:16 | +9 | 28 | WLLLL |
| 5 | Santa Fe | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 23:17 | +6 | 28 | DDLWW |
| 6 | Millonarios | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 24:14 | +10 | 26 | DLDWW |
| 7 | Independiente Medellin | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 25:25 | 0 | 26 | WWLDW |
| 8 | Águilas Doradas | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 22:20 | +2 | 25 | LLWLW |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 21:18 | +3 | 24 | WDDDL |
| 10 | Cucuta | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 18:24 | -6 | 21 | WDWDD |
| 11 | Deportes Tolima | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 18:19 | -1 | 20 | LDWWD |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 21:23 | -2 | 20 | LWDLL |
| 13 | Llaneros | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 19:23 | -4 | 20 | LDWDD |
| 14 | Alianza Valledupar | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 17:29 | -12 | 18 | LLWDL |
| 15 | Deportivo Pereira | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 12:19 | -7 | 17 | DLLLD |
| 16 | Junior | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 23:27 | -4 | 16 | WWLWW |
| 17 | Chico | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 13:28 | -15 | 16 | LWLWL |
| 18 | Jaguares | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17:29 | -12 | 13 | LWLDL |
| 19 | Fortaleza FC | 17 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 17:25 | -8 | 12 | LWDDL |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 11:24 | -13 | 12 | WDLWW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 16 | 32:13 | 35 |
| 2 | America de Cali | 16 | 31:12 | 34 |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 17 | 26:10 | 33 |
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 16 | 25:16 | 28 |
| 5 | Santa Fe | 16 | 23:17 | 28 |
| 6 | Millonarios | 16 | 24:14 | 26 |
| 7 | Independiente Medellin | 17 | 25:25 | 26 |
| 8 | Águilas Doradas | 17 | 22:20 | 25 |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 17 | 21:18 | 24 |
| 10 | Cucuta | 16 | 18:24 | 21 |
| 11 | Deportes Tolima | 16 | 18:19 | 20 |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 17 | 21:23 | 20 |
| 13 | Llaneros | 17 | 19:23 | 20 |
| 14 | Alianza Valledupar | 17 | 17:29 | 18 |
| 15 | Deportivo Pereira | 16 | 12:19 | 17 |
| 16 | Junior | 17 | 23:27 | 16 |
| 17 | Chico | 17 | 13:28 | 16 |
| 18 | Jaguares | 16 | 17:29 | 13 |
| 19 | Fortaleza FC | 17 | 17:25 | 12 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 16 | 11:24 | 12 |
Explore more predictions
This match
More Primera A matches
- Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima 09/10/26
- Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas 10/10/26
- Once Caldas vs Llaneros 10/10/26
- Junior vs Internacional de Bogota 11/10/26
- Chico vs Cucuta 12/10/26
- America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin 12/10/26
- Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas 14/10/26
- Junior vs Deportivo Pereira 14/10/26
About the Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima forecast
The forecasts for this Primera A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Jaguares and Deportes Tolima in the Primera A table
In the Primera A table, Deportes Tolima are 6th and Jaguares 16th, 13 points apart. League goal record so far: Jaguares 20-33, Deportes Tolima 27-17. The full standings are on the Primera A Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.