Kilmarnock vs Motherwell Prediction

Kilmarnock
3-2
Finished
HT 1-1
Motherwell
The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park, Kilmarnock 17/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.20
SignalSTRONGModel41%SurpriseMediumGap-3.1%
Value Analysis
65%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.70
SignalSOLIDModel65%SurpriseMediumGap+8.9%
Kilmarnock Rest
7 days
Motherwell Rest
6 days

Kilmarnock vs Motherwell: the result in context

Kilmarnock beat Motherwell 3-2 in the Premiership on 17 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.2 goals, with both teams scoring in 4 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
35%2.96
X
28%3.48
2
37%2.17
Double Chance
1X
63%1.58
X2
65%1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%1.51
No
40%2.39
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.39 + 1.29 = 2.68
Over 1.5
79%1.20
Over 2.5
56%1.63
Over 3.5
35%2.52
Under 1.5
21%4.50
Under 2.5
44%2.20
Under 3.5
65%1.50
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.5 + 5.3 = 10.9
Over 8.5
73%1.46
Over 9.5
63%1.73
Over 10.5
52%2.15
Under 8.5
27%2.57
Under 9.5
37%2.00
Under 10.5
48%1.61
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.2 = 4.3
Over 3.5
63%1.67
Over 4.5
43%2.20
Under 3.5
37%2.10
Under 4.5
57%1.62

Match Events

2'Greg Kiltie
17'Alex·Lowry
33'Michael-John Kamson-Kamara INJamie Brandon out
35'Bailey Rice INAaron Tshibola out
52'Red card cancelledGeorge Stanger
55'George StangerFoul
56'Sebastian Palmer-Houlden
58'Tyreece John-JulesAssist: Jamie Brandon
68'Martin Moormann INJake Max Girdwood-Reich out
68'Alex·Lowry INJardell Kanga out
68'Sebastian Palmer-Houlden INEythor Bjørgolfsson out
69'Greg KiltieAssist: Jamie Brandon
75'Lukas Fadinger INDylan Levitt out
77'Tyreece John-Jules INDjenairo Daniels out
77'Greg Kiltie INIeuan Gwyn Owen out
81'Tom Sparrow INJohnny Koutroumbis out

Lineups

Kilmarnock
4-2-3-1Coach: N. McCann
Motherwell
4-2-3-1Coach: Alfred Johansson
Avg rating6.62
Avg rating6.27
C. Ferrie7.112C. Ferrie
Michael-John Kamson-Kamara6.13M. Kamson-Kamara
C. McCarthy6.04C. McCarthy
G. Stanger5.814G. Stanger
M. Schjønning-Larsen6.121M. Schjønning-Larsen
B. Rice6.049B. Rice
T. Lowery6.318T. Lowery
E. Ring6.28E. Ring
T. John-Jules7.910T. John-Jules
G. Kiltie9.011G. Kiltie
J. Hugill6.49J. Hugill
A. Paulsen6.21A. Paulsen
T. Sparrow6.07T. Sparrow
S. O'Donnell6.32S. O'Donnell
M. Moormann6.25M. Moormann
M. Emmanuel5.945M. Emmanuel
L. Fadinger6.88L. Fadinger
J. Hodge6.471J. Hodge
Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise6.718T. Jethro Maswanhise
A. Lowry6.711A. Lowry
I. Said6.519I. Said
S. Palmer-Houlden7.347S. Palmer-Houlden

Kilmarnock Substitutes

2J. Brandon33'for Michael-John Kamson-Kamara6.6
20N. Cleșcenco
29D. Daniels77'for Tyreece John-Jules6.5
6R. Deas
58N. Mantl
5M. O'Hara
19J. Meier
27I. Owen77'for Greg Kiltie6.9
36A. Tshibola35'for Bailey Rice6.4

Motherwell Substitutes

22J. Koutroumbis81'for Tom Sparrow6.1
63D. Levitt75'for Lukas Fadinger5.5
21M. Connelly
6J. McGhee
77W. Vogt
13J. Kanga68'for Alex·Lowry5.8
3J. Girdwood-Reich68'for Martin Moormann5.9
15E. Björgólfs­son68'for Sebastian Palmer-Houlden6.3
4Jamie Knight-Lebel

Match Stats

KilmarnockMotherwell
52%Ball Possession48%
5Corner Kicks3
1Yellow Cards0
16Total Shots16
6Shots on Goal7
4Shots off Goal5
14Shots Inside Box11
2Shots Outside Box5
6Blocked Shots4
9Fouls8
1Offsides3
6Goalkeeper Saves4
514Total Passes480
416Passes Accurate385
8Free Kicks9

Team Comparison

KilmarnockKilmarnock
MotherwellMotherwell
1502Elo Rating 1556
1.19Attack 0.73
0.98Defense 0.54
37%Hit Rate 0%
11.4Shots per Game 12.5
3.3Shots on Target 4.4
4.9Corners per Game 4.6
1.6Cards per Game 0.8

AI Insights

📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

KilmarnockKilmarnock
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
MotherwellMotherwell
  • No tendency data available

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

KilmarnockKilmarnock2Wins · 20%
Draws550%
MotherwellMotherwell3Wins · 30%
2.2Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10

Previous meetings

Premiership24/01/2026
MotherwellKilmarnock
40
Premiership22/11/2025
KilmarnockMotherwell
13
Premiership30/08/2025
MotherwellKilmarnock
22
Premiership14/05/2025
MotherwellKilmarnock
30
Premiership05/04/2025
KilmarnockMotherwell
20
Premiership08/01/2025
KilmarnockMotherwell
00
Premiership20/12/2024
MotherwellKilmarnock
11
League Cup18/08/2024
MotherwellKilmarnock
1000
Premiership03/02/2024
MotherwellKilmarnock
11
Premiership04/11/2023
KilmarnockMotherwell
10

League Table

Premiership 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1CelticCeltic1191127:8+1928DWWWL
2RangersRangers1173119:9+1024DWDWW
3Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian1162324:17+720DWLWD
4DundeeDundee1152417:13+417WLDWW
5Dundee UtdDundee Utd1144316:16016DWDWW
6FalkirkFalkirk1143413:12+115WWWLD
7ST MirrenST Mirren1142512:19-714DWLLL
8ST JohnstoneST Johnstone1134413:17-413DLDWD
9AberdeenAberdeen1132612:14-211LLWLD
10MotherwellMotherwell1123613:20-79DLLLL
11HibernianHibernian1122711:17-68DLLLD
12KilmarnockKilmarnock1122711:26-158LLWLD
#TeamMPGPts
1CelticCeltic1127:828
2RangersRangers1119:924
3Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian1124:1720
4DundeeDundee1117:1317
5Dundee UtdDundee Utd1116:1616
6FalkirkFalkirk1113:1215
7ST MirrenST Mirren1112:1914
8ST JohnstoneST Johnstone1113:1713
9AberdeenAberdeen1112:1411
10MotherwellMotherwell1113:209
11HibernianHibernian1111:178
12KilmarnockKilmarnock1111:268
PromotionRelegation

About the Kilmarnock vs Motherwell forecast

The forecasts for this Premiership match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Kilmarnock and Motherwell in the Premiership table

Motherwell and Kilmarnock are close in the Premiership table, 10th and 12th, with 1 point between them. League goal record so far: Kilmarnock 11-26, Motherwell 13-20. The full standings are on the Premiership Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.