Libertad vs Universidad Catolica Prediction
Ecuador · Regular Season - 24
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
82%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.30
SignalSTRONGModel44%SurpriseMediumGap+5.1%
Libertad Rest
9 days
Universidad Catolica Rest
5 days
Libertad vs Universidad Catolica: the result in context
Libertad beat Universidad Catolica 2-1 in the Liga Pro on 10 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Their 9 previous meetings averaged 2.2 goals, with both teams scoring in 6 of them.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
132%4.17
X31%3.46
237%1.79
Double Chance
1X63%1.94
X268%1.19
Both Teams to Score
Yes45%1.80
No55%1.87
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.07 + 1 = 2.07
Over 1.562%1.28
Over 2.532%1.91
Over 3.518%3.30
Under 1.538%3.34
Under 2.568%1.81
Under 3.582%1.30
Corners
Corner forecasts not available for this match
Cards
Card forecasts not available for this match
Match Events
15'L. CangaFoul
32'Goal Disallowed - offsideA. Chere
40'V. BrandaAssist: C. Valencia
41'F. MartinezFoul
45+5'M. DiazUnsportsmanlike conduct
46'M. Alonso INA. Londono out
46'J. Cacciabue INE. Clavijo out
57'X. E. Pineda AranaDelay of game
61'D. Coronel INC. Orejuela out
67'X. E. Pineda Arana INJ. Estacio out
67'A. Chere INE. Caicedo out
67'E. CaicedoAssist: C. Orejuela
70'F. Martinez INS. Yanez out
70'J. Mina INL. Moreno out
75'V. Branda ING. J. Cortez Casierra out
76'R. MorinigoUnsportsmanlike conduct
85'S. YanezAssist: J. Fajardo
90'J. EstacioUnsportsmanlike conduct
90+1'G. J. Cortez CasierraUnsportsmanlike conduct
90+7'D. Nazareno INB. Palacios out
Lineups
LibertadUniversidad Catolica
4-2-3-1Coach: Diego MartinezAvg ratingAvg rating
C12D. Cabezas
6B. Caicedo
2R. Morinigo
19O. Quinonez
17E. Patta
80X. Pineda
63C. Valencia
20J. Rodríguez
70V. Branda
33A. Chére
49D. Coronel
12J. Lara
24D. Nazareno
33L. Cangá
4J. Chancellor
14J. Mina
5J. Cacciabue
C10F. Martinez
30E. Mejía
28M. Díaz
32M. Alonso
7J. FajardoLibertad Substitutes
52Ariel Bao
66Johan Estacio67'replaced by X. E. Pineda Arana90'
8Stick Castro
5Carlos Gruezo
18Yerman Quinonez
7Carlos Orejuela61'for D. Coronel
11Hancel Batalla
10Gabriel Cortez75'for V. Branda90+1'
9Enrique Caicedo67'for A. Chere67'
Universidad Catolica Substitutes
1Lucas Cueva
44Eric Valencia
37Carlos Medina
19Marcos Sevillano
29Gregori Anangonó
15Luis Moreno70'for J. Mina
17Rooney Troya
9Azarias Londoño46'for M. Alonso
23Álex Rodríguez
8Emiliano Clavijo46'for J. Cacciabue
26Saenddy Yánez70'for F. Martinez85'
18Byron Palacios90+7'replaced by D. Nazareno
Match Stats
LibertadUniversidad Catolica 34%Ball Possession66%
5Corner Kicks5
2Yellow Cards3
2Red Cards0
19Total Shots16
6Shots on Goal6
8Shots off Goal8
8Shots Inside Box9
11Shots Outside Box7
5Blocked Shots2
11Fouls6
1Offsides4
5Goalkeeper Saves4
282Total Passes572
215Passes Accurate511
76%Pass Accuracy89%
Team Comparison
LibertadUniversidad Catolica1590Elo Rating 1623
2.63Attack 0.91
2.31Defense 2.10
83%Hit Rate 37%
15.2Shots per Game 8.9
5.8Shots on Target 1.7
4.5Corners per Game 3.3
1.9Cards per Game 2.5
AI Insights
📈BTTS Trend67% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
📊Away Overperforming
Game State Tendencies
Libertad- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (2 vs 0.7 in first half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Universidad Catolica- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 9 meetings, all competitions
Libertad2Wins · 22%Draws556%
Universidad Catolica2Wins · 22%
2Wins · 22%2.2Avg Goals
67%Both teams scored6 of 9
33%3+ goals3 of 9
Previous meetings
18/04/2026Universidad CatolicaLibertad20
21/11/2025Universidad CatolicaLibertad11
20/10/2025LibertadUniversidad Catolica11
16/08/2025Universidad CatolicaLibertad11
29/04/2025LibertadUniversidad Catolica31
10/08/2024Universidad CatolicaLibertad12
12/03/2024LibertadUniversidad Catolica01
07/11/2023Universidad CatolicaLibertad00
27/05/2023LibertadUniversidad Catolica22
Recent Form
Libertad5W1D4L
01/08/2026Libertad
Orense SCLibertad
Delfin SC
Barcelona SCLibertadLibertad
Tecnico Universitario
LDU de QuitoLibertadLibertad
Leones del Norte
LibertadOrense SC30
W27/07/2026
Mushuc Runa SCLibertad
21/07/2026Mushuc Runa SCLibertad02
WLibertadDelfin SC10
W19/07/2026Barcelona SCLibertad10
L15/07/2026LibertadTecnico Universitario10
W12/07/2026LDU de QuitoLibertad00
D04/07/2026LibertadLeones del Norte13
L30/05/2026
Manta FCLibertad
Manta FCLibertad21
L23/05/2026
Independiente del ValleLibertad
Independiente del ValleLibertad23
W20/05/2026
LDU PortoviejoLibertad
LDU PortoviejoLibertad4121
LUniversidad Catolica5W1D4L
05/08/2026Universidad Catolica
Cuniburo
01/08/2026Universidad CatolicaCuniburo23
LUniversidad CatolicaTecnico Universitario50
W27/07/2026
Guayaquil City FCUniversidad Catolica
Guayaquil City FCUniversidad Catolica00
D22/07/2026Universidad CatolicaBarcelona SC
18/07/2026Universidad CatolicaBarcelona SC21
W
Deportivo CuencaUniversidad Catolica02
W16/07/2026Universidad CatolicaLDU de Quito10
W11/07/2026Leones del NorteUniversidad Catolica
06/07/2026Leones del NorteUniversidad Catolica10
LUniversidad CatolicaMushuc Runa SC23
L01/06/2026
EmelecUniversidad Catolica
EmelecUniversidad Catolica10
L29/05/2026
El NacionalUniversidad Catolica
El NacionalUniversidad Catolica14
WReferee Profile
5.40Cards per match
5.04Yellow cards per match
0.36Red cards per match
23.4Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
5.40 cards a match, 0.31 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.09).
Cards come from 73 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Liga Pro: Regular season
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 73:33 | +40 | 74 | DLWWW |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51:27 | +24 | 51 | DWLLW |
| 3 |  Macara | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 41:33 | +8 | 51 | WWWWW |
| 4 |  Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 33:28 | +5 | 50 | LDLLD |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 31:24 | +7 | 46 | LDWWD |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 32:25 | +7 | 44 | WLLDD |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:34 | -1 | 41 | LWWWL |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 31:32 | -1 | 39 | WLLDL |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 33:36 | -3 | 39 | WLWDW |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 25:34 | -9 | 39 | LWLLL |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 35:38 | -3 | 38 | LDLDL |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 25:37 | -12 | 36 | WWDDD |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 36:47 | -11 | 33 | WDDLL |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 28:42 | -14 | 32 | WLLDW |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 19:31 | -12 | 28 | LWWDD |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 17:42 | -25 | 21 | LLWWD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 73:33 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 30 | 51:27 | 51 |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 41:33 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 33:28 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 31:24 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 32:25 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 33:34 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 31:32 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 33:36 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 25:34 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 35:38 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 25:37 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 36:47 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 28:42 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 30 | 19:31 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 17:42 | 21 |
Liga Pro: Championship Group
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 33 | 25 | 3 | 5 | 75:35 | +40 | 78 | DLWWW |
| 2 | Macara | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 47:35 | +12 | 63 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 53:31 | +22 | 53 | DWLLW |
| 4 | LDU de Quito | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 37:29 | +8 | 53 | LDWWD |
| 5 | Aucas | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 36:37 | -1 | 51 | LDLLD |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 33 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 38:28 | +10 | 48 | WLLDD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 33 | 75:35 | 78 |
| 2 | Macara | 34 | 47:35 | 63 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 34 | 53:31 | 53 |
| 4 | LDU de Quito | 34 | 37:29 | 53 |
| 5 | Aucas | 34 | 36:37 | 51 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 33 | 38:28 | 48 |
Liga Pro: Placement Group
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Libertad | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 43:39 | +4 | 50 | LWWWL |
| 8 | Guayaquil City FC | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 38:43 | -5 | 46 | WLWDW |
| 9 | Leones del Norte | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 37:40 | -3 | 43 | WLLDL |
| 10 | Emelec | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 31:41 | -10 | 42 | LWLLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Libertad | 34 | 43:39 | 50 |
| 8 | Guayaquil City FC | 34 | 38:43 | 46 |
| 9 | Leones del Norte | 34 | 37:40 | 43 |
| 10 | Emelec | 34 | 31:41 | 42 |
PromotionRelegation
Explore more predictions
This match
More Liga Pro matches
- Barcelona SC vs Macara 09/08/26
- Delfin SC vs Orense SC 09/08/26
- Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec 10/08/26
- Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa SC 10/08/26
- Independiente del Valle vs Delfin SC 15/08/26
- Manta FC vs Leones del Norte 15/08/26
- Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle 22/08/26
- Tecnico Universitario vs Guayaquil City FC 22/08/26
About the Libertad vs Universidad Catolica forecast
The forecasts for this Liga Pro match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Libertad and Universidad Catolica in the Liga Pro table
In the Liga Pro table, Universidad Catolica are 2nd and Libertad 7th, 10 points apart. League goal record so far: Libertad 33-34, Universidad Catolica 51-27. The full standings are on the Liga Pro Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.