Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia Prediction

Ludogorets
2-1
Finished
HT 1-0
Septemvri Sofia
Huvepharma Arena, Razgrad 14/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.0 / 10
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.57
SignalGOODModel67%SurpriseMediumGap+5.5%
Ludogorets Rest
7 days
Septemvri Sofia Rest
10 days

Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia: the result in context

Ludogorets beat Septemvri Sofia 2-1 in the First League on 14 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Ludogorets have had the better of this fixture, winning 7 of the 8 previous meetings, which averaged 2.6 goals a game. Ludogorets tend to win more corners, 6.5 a game to 4.5 for Septemvri Sofia.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
76%1.22
X
19%5.60
2
5%12.00
Double Chance
1X
96%1.03
X2
24%3.94
Both Teams to Score
Yes
33%2.18
No
67%1.60
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.37 + 0.71 = 3.08
Over 1.5
83%1.17
Over 2.5
66%1.57
Over 3.5
41%2.47
Under 1.5
17%4.52
Under 2.5
34%2.27
Under 3.5
59%1.50
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

14'Sebastian Wade INValentine Ozornwafor out
19'Son
21'Ivajlo Čočev
50'Kubrat Onasci
56'Son
58'Bozidar Krasimirov Penchev
58'Caio Vidal Rocha INErick Marcus dos Santos Oliveira do Carmo out
59'Aguibou Camara
62'Galin Ivanov
68'Ivajlo Čočev INFilip Kaloc out
68'Son INJoel Andersson out
68'Bernard Tekpetey INaleksandar marinov out
76'edney ribeiro INAndre Liberal out
81'Frantzety Herard
87'Yoan Baurenski INStoyan Stoichkov out
88'aleksandar marinov INEdvin Kurtulus out

Lineups

Ludogorets
4-1-4-1Coach: T. Reis
Septemvri Sofia
4-2-3-1Coach: Simão Freitas
H. Bonmann39H. Bonmann
A. Nedyalkov3A. Nedyalkov
S. Shishkov42S. Shishkov
Hossam Abdelmaguid4H. Abdelmaguid
Son17Son
Deroy Duarte23D. Duarte
Caio Vidal11C. Vidal
A. Camara20A. Camara
I. Chochev18I. Chochev
B. Tekpetey37B. Tekpetey
Rwan Cruz12R. Cruz
V. Ivanov12V. Ivanov
K. Önaşçı13K. Önaşçı
M. Hristov4M. Hristov
Y. Baurenski5Y. Baurenski
Sebastian Wade3S. Wade
Pedro Ferreira6P. Ferreira
B. Penchev8B. Penchev
Pedro Igor19P. Igor
G. Ivanov33G. Ivanov
F. Herard29F. Herard
E. Ribeiro7E. Ribeiro

Ludogorets Substitutes

5G. Terziev
2J. Andersson68'for Son
77Erick Marcus58'for Caio Vidal Rocha
13I. Grbić
26F. Kaloč68'for Ivajlo Čočev
15E. Kurtulus88'replaced by aleksandar marinov
40A. Marinov68'for Bernard Tekpetey88'for Edvin Kurtulus
67A. Panayotov
22M. Polendakov
14P. Stanić

Septemvri Sofia Substitutes

30Viktor Dobrev
11A. Dzhamov
15P. Gospodinov
10N. Iliev
27André Filipe Rio Liberal76'for edney ribeiro
16V. Mihaylov
26V. Ozornwafor14'for Sebastian Wade
1A. Radkov
28S. Stoichkov87'for Yoan Baurenski
20B. Tomovski
24Z. Atanasov

Match Stats

LudogoretsSeptemvri Sofia
47%Ball Possession53%
5Corner Kicks5
1Yellow Cards3
14Total Shots6
8Shots on Goal2
6Shots off Goal4
0Blocked Shots0
0Free Kicks0

Team Comparison

LudogoretsLudogorets
Septemvri SofiaSeptemvri Sofia
1664Elo Rating 1379
2.27Attack 0.76
2.15Defense 0.87
73%Hit Rate 0%
14.0Shots per Game 10.4
5.2Shots on Target 3.2
6.5Corners per Game 4.5
2.3Cards per Game 3.3

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+285 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.08 goals
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

LudogoretsLudogorets
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.4 vs 0.9 in first half)
Septemvri SofiaSeptemvri Sofia
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.6 vs 0.1 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 8 meetings, all competitions

LudogoretsLudogorets7Wins · 88%
Draws112%
Septemvri SofiaSeptemvri Sofia0Wins · 0%
2.6Avg Goals
25%Both teams scored2 of 8
50%3+ goals4 of 8

Previous meetings

Friendlies Clubs10/07/2026
LudogoretsSeptemvri Sofia
10
Cup15/12/2025
Septemvri SofiaLudogorets
13
First League23/11/2025
Septemvri SofiaLudogorets
02
First League19/07/2025
LudogoretsSeptemvri Sofia
50
First League03/03/2025
LudogoretsSeptemvri Sofia
00
First League20/10/2024
Septemvri SofiaLudogorets
02
First League30/10/2022
LudogoretsSeptemvri Sofia
31
First League08/07/2022
Septemvri SofiaLudogorets
03

Recent Form

Septemvri SofiaSeptemvri Sofia
3W2D5L
04/09/2026
Septemvri SofiaBotev Vratsa
23
L
28/08/2026
Slavia SofiaSeptemvri Sofia
11
D
23/08/2026
Septemvri SofiaCSKA 1948
10
W
17/08/2026
Spartak VarnaSeptemvri Sofia
01
W
09/08/2026
Septemvri SofiaCSKA Sofia
03
L
01/08/2026
Levski SofiaSeptemvri Sofia
30
L
26/07/2026
Lokomotiv PlovdivSeptemvri Sofia
21
L
18/07/2026
Septemvri SofiaArda Kardzhali
11
D
10/07/2026
LudogoretsSeptemvri Sofia
10
L
07/07/2026
Septemvri SofiaHebar 1918
21
W

League Table

First League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Levski SofiaLevski Sofia12102025:5+2032WDWDW
2CSKA SofiaCSKA Sofia1293029:9+2030WWDWW
3LudogoretsLudogorets1292124:9+1529WLWWW
4CSKA 1948CSKA 19481391331:14+1728WWLWW
5Botev PlovdivBotev Plovdiv1371522:20+222WLWWW
6Arda KardzhaliArda Kardzhali1253416:18-218DLDLL
7Spartak VarnaSpartak Varna1334612:23-1113LLWLD
8Slavia SofiaSlavia Sofia122649:9012DLLDW
9Dunav RuseDunav Ruse1332815:22-711LWWDL
10Botev VratsaBotev Vratsa1224610:21-1110DLDDW
11Lokomotiv PlovdivLokomotiv Plovdiv132386:17-119LDDDL
12Lokomotiv SofiaLokomotiv Sofia1316615:25-109LDDWL
13Cherno More VarnaCherno More Varna1223713:22-99WLDDL
14Septemvri SofiaSeptemvri Sofia1222810:23-138LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Levski SofiaLevski Sofia1225:532
2CSKA SofiaCSKA Sofia1229:930
3LudogoretsLudogorets1224:929
4CSKA 1948CSKA 19481331:1428
5Botev PlovdivBotev Plovdiv1322:2022
6Arda KardzhaliArda Kardzhali1216:1818
7Spartak VarnaSpartak Varna1312:2313
8Slavia SofiaSlavia Sofia129:912
9Dunav RuseDunav Ruse1315:2211
10Botev VratsaBotev Vratsa1210:2110
11Lokomotiv PlovdivLokomotiv Plovdiv136:179
12Lokomotiv SofiaLokomotiv Sofia1315:259
13Cherno More VarnaCherno More Varna1213:229
14Septemvri SofiaSeptemvri Sofia1210:238
Conference LeaguePromotionRelegation

About the Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia forecast

The forecasts for this First League match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Ludogorets and Septemvri Sofia in the First League table

The table shows a wide gap: Ludogorets are 3rd in the First League, while Septemvri Sofia sit 14th, 21 points behind. League goal record so far: Ludogorets 24-9, Septemvri Sofia 10-23. The full standings are on the First League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.