Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna Prediction

Arena Arda, Kerdjali·Georgi Nikolov Kabakov 19/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
81%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.17
SignalSTRONGModel60%SurpriseMediumGap-4.9%
Value Analysis
60%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.75
SignalSOLIDModel60%SurpriseMediumGap+4.3%
Arda Kardzhali Rest
6 days
Cherno More Varna Rest
7 days

Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna: the result in context

Arda Kardzhali and Cherno More Varna drew 1-1 in the First League on 19 Sep 2026. Arda Kardzhali had gone in with the better form, having won 3 of their previous five against 1 for Cherno More Varna.

Their history points to a close game: 10 previous meetings produced 1.8 goals a game. Referee Georgi Nikolov Kabakov averages 5.46 cards a game, 0.69 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
59%1.75
X
25%3.40
2
16%4.65
Double Chance
1X
84%1.17
X2
41%1.99
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%2.03
No
50%1.70
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.64 + 0.87 = 2.51
Over 1.5
73%1.36
Over 2.5
48%2.20
Over 3.5
25%4.00
Under 1.5
27%2.85
Under 2.5
52%1.62
Under 3.5
75%1.20
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

46'Birsent Karagaren INAntonio Vutov out
62'Antonio Vutov
63'Adama Ardile Traore INViktor Lyubenov out
63'Preslav·Bachev INGeorgi Nikolaev Nikolov out
70'georgi lazarov
74'Antonio Vutov
78'Stanislav Ivanov INAtanas Kabov out
78'Vyacheslav Velev
79'Zhivko Atanasov
81'georgi lazarov
81'Asen Donchev INIvan·Tasev out
81'Berk Beyhan INVasil Panayotov out
81'Miguel barandas INAleksandar Todorov out
86'Martin Paskalev
88'Zhivko Atanasov
88'Mohamed Achi Bouakline INGeorgi ventsislavov out
90+5'

Lineups

Arda Kardzhali
4-1-4-1Coach: A. Tunchev
Cherno More Varna
4-2-3-1Coach: Ilian Iliev
A. Gospodinov1A. Gospodinov
V. Velev21V. Velev
M. Paskalev24M. Paskalev
Adama Ardile Traoré44A. Ardile Traoré
V. Popov6V. Popov
L. Kotev80L. Kotev
D. Velkovski35D. Velkovski
B. Karagaren99B. Karagaren
S. Ivanov91S. Ivanov
S. Kovachev10S. Kovachev
P. Bachev16P. Bachev
D. Hristov31D. Hristov
E. Tombak50E. Tombak
Z. Atanasov3Z. Atanasov
V. Kerchev37V. Kerchev
João Bandaró26J. Bandaró
B. Beyhan29B. Beyhan
I. Bounaas99I. Bounaas
M. Barandas7M. Barandas
M. Achi11M. Achi
A. Donchev8A. Donchev
G. Lazarov19G. Lazarov

Arda Kardzhali Substitutes

26B. Akandzha
22Y. Georgiev
11A. Kabov78'for Stanislav Ivanov
5V. Lyubenov63'for Adama Ardile Traore
9G. Nikolov63'for Preslav·Bachev
18S. Vasilev
39A. Vutov46'for Birsent Karagaren62'74'

Cherno More Varna Substitutes

22N. Kostadinov
34K. Mihaylov
9J. Padilla
71V. Panayotov81'for Berk Beyhan
17I. Tasev81'for Asen Donchev
14A. Todorov81'for Miguel barandas
81K. Tomov
93G. Ventsislavov88'for Mohamed Achi Bouakline
23M. Banev
18P. Andreev
89Dimitar Kichukov

Match Stats

Arda KardzhaliCherno More Varna
54%Ball Possession46%
2Corner Kicks4
4Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
10Total Shots9
3Shots on Goal5
7Shots off Goal4
0Blocked Shots0
0Free Kicks0

Team Comparison

Arda KardzhaliArda Kardzhali
Cherno More VarnaCherno More Varna
1564Elo Rating 1467
1.03Attack 1.26
0.80Defense 2.30
23%Hit Rate 46%
6.2Shots per Game 9.4
2.8Shots on Target 3.8
1.5Corners per Game 3.0
3.6Cards per Game 3.9

Game State Tendencies

Arda KardzhaliArda Kardzhali
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Cherno More VarnaCherno More Varna
  • No tendency data available

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Arda KardzhaliArda Kardzhali3Wins · 30%
Draws550%
Cherno More VarnaCherno More Varna2Wins · 20%
1.8Avg Goals
30%Both teams scored3 of 10
30%3+ goals3 of 10

Previous meetings

First League25/05/2026
Cherno More VarnaArda Kardzhali
23
First League03/05/2026
Arda KardzhaliCherno More Varna
00
First League04/03/2026
Cherno More VarnaArda Kardzhali
00
Cup12/12/2025
Cherno More VarnaArda Kardzhali
03
First League22/09/2025
Arda KardzhaliCherno More Varna
01
First League18/05/2025
Arda KardzhaliCherno More Varna
00
First League04/05/2025
Cherno More VarnaArda Kardzhali
11
First League02/04/2025
Arda KardzhaliCherno More Varna
40
First League15/09/2024
Cherno More VarnaArda Kardzhali
11
First League07/11/2023
Cherno More VarnaArda Kardzhali
10

Recent Form

Arda KardzhaliArda Kardzhali
5W1D4L
12/09/2026
CSKA SofiaArda Kardzhali
41
L
04/09/2026
Arda KardzhaliBotev Plovdiv
23
L
31/08/2026
Arda KardzhaliBotev Vratsa
20
W
24/08/2026
Lokomotiv PlovdivArda Kardzhali
01
W
17/08/2026
Arda KardzhaliLokomotiv Sofia
31
W
08/08/2026
Dunav RuseArda Kardzhali
02
W
31/07/2026
CSKA 1948Arda Kardzhali
21
L
24/07/2026
Arda KardzhaliSlavia Sofia
10
W
18/07/2026
Septemvri SofiaArda Kardzhali
11
D
10/07/2026
Botev VratsaArda Kardzhali
10
L
Cherno More VarnaCherno More Varna
1W3D6L

Referee Profile

Georgi Nikolov Kabakov226 matches

5.46Cards per match
5.20Yellow cards per match
0.26Red cards per match
24.2Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Georgi Nikolov Kabakov5.46
Other referees4.77

5.46 cards a match, 0.69 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.77).

Cards come from 157 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

First League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Levski SofiaLevski Sofia12102025:5+2032WDWDW
2CSKA SofiaCSKA Sofia1394029:9+2031DWWDW
3LudogoretsLudogorets1292124:9+1529WLWWW
4CSKA 1948CSKA 19481391331:14+1728WWLWW
5Botev PlovdivBotev Plovdiv1371522:20+222WLWWW
6Arda KardzhaliArda Kardzhali1363418:19-121WDLDL
7Slavia SofiaSlavia Sofia132749:9013DDLLD
8Spartak VarnaSpartak Varna1334612:23-1113LLWLD
9Cherno More VarnaCherno More Varna1333714:22-812WWLDD
10Dunav RuseDunav Ruse1332815:22-711LWWDL
11Botev VratsaBotev Vratsa1324710:22-1210LDLDD
12Lokomotiv SofiaLokomotiv Sofia1316615:25-109LDDWL
13Lokomotiv PlovdivLokomotiv Plovdiv132386:17-119LDDDL
14Septemvri SofiaSeptemvri Sofia1322911:25-148LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Levski SofiaLevski Sofia1225:532
2CSKA SofiaCSKA Sofia1329:931
3LudogoretsLudogorets1224:929
4CSKA 1948CSKA 19481331:1428
5Botev PlovdivBotev Plovdiv1322:2022
6Arda KardzhaliArda Kardzhali1318:1921
7Slavia SofiaSlavia Sofia139:913
8Spartak VarnaSpartak Varna1312:2313
9Cherno More VarnaCherno More Varna1314:2212
10Dunav RuseDunav Ruse1315:2211
11Botev VratsaBotev Vratsa1310:2210
12Lokomotiv SofiaLokomotiv Sofia1315:259
13Lokomotiv PlovdivLokomotiv Plovdiv136:179
14Septemvri SofiaSeptemvri Sofia1311:258
Conference LeaguePromotionRelegation

About the Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna forecast

The forecasts for this First League match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Arda Kardzhali and Cherno More Varna in the First League table

In the First League table, Arda Kardzhali are 6th and Cherno More Varna 9th, 9 points apart. League goal record so far: Arda Kardzhali 18-19, Cherno More Varna 14-22. The full standings are on the First League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.