Newport County vs York Prediction

League TwoEngland England · Regular Season - 11
Newport County
1-1
Finished
HT 0-1
York
Rodney Parade, Newport 17/10/2026
Newport CountyNewport County
1-1
Finished
YorkYork

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
71%Trust
Double Chance
Draw or Away Win
1.26
SignalGOODModel44%SurpriseHighGap-7.6%
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 10.5
1.57
SignalGOODModel67%SurpriseMediumGap+4.3%
Newport County Rest
7 days
York Rest
7 days

Newport County vs York: the result in context

Newport County and York drew 1-1 in the League Two on 17 Oct 2026. Newport County had gone in with the better form, having won 3 of their previous five against 1 for York.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
29%3.59
X
27%3.65
2
44%1.93
Double Chance
1X
56%1.80
X2
71%1.26
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%1.61
No
42%2.20
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.27 + 1.51 = 2.78
Over 1.5
77%1.20
Over 2.5
55%1.69
Over 3.5
34%2.62
Under 1.5
23%4.00
Under 2.5
45%2.08
Under 3.5
66%1.41
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.4 + 4.9 = 9.3
Over 8.5
57%1.45
Over 9.5
44%1.75
Over 10.5
33%2.25
Under 8.5
43%2.51
Under 9.5
56%1.95
Under 10.5
67%1.57
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2.4 = 4.3
Over 3.5
62%-
Over 4.5
43%-
Under 3.5
38%-
Under 4.5
57%-

Match Events

4'Ollie PearceAssist: Alex Hunt
17'M. Dibley-DiasFoul
24'jovan malcolmViolent conduct
45'Matty Jacobs INMatthew Smith out
47'Ollie PearceFoul
52'M. Dibley-Dias INKion Etete out
53'Joey GreyFoul
54'Kion EteteAssist: Tanatswa Nyakuhwa
55'Joseph Rabole Felix INJack Hunt out
72'Ollie Pearce INFrankie Maguire out
72'Alex Hunt INArthur Read out
72'Joey Grey INAlex Newby out
76'Tanatswa Nyakuhwa INGerard Garner out
76'Yahya Bamba INKieron Thomas Evans out
79'Harrison Biggins
82'Ryan Fallowfield INAshley Palmer out
87'Kion EteteFoul
89'Shaquille Gwengwe INMichael Adu-Poku out

Lineups

Newport County
4-2-3-1Coach: H. Mullins
York
3-4-2-1Coach: S. Lindsey
Avg rating6.52
Avg rating6.59
J. Wright6.11J. Wright
C. Norman6.922C. Norman
L. Jenkins7.05L. Jenkins
K. Cameron7.14K. Cameron
M. Jacob6.416M. Jacob
M. Dibley-Dias6.124M. Dibley-Dias
C. Brennan6.26C. Brennan
T. Nyakuhwa6.721T. Nyakuhwa
H. Biggins6.210H. Biggins
Y. Bamba5.820Y. Bamba
S. Gwengwe5.99S. Gwengwe
Alfie Shane McNally6.61A. Shane McNally
R. Fallowfield6.92R. Fallowfield
Z. Johnson7.05Z. Johnson
M. Kitching6.43M. Kitching
J. Felix6.423J. Felix
A. Hunt7.68A. Hunt
O. Banks6.328O. Banks
H. Boyes7.112H. Boyes
J. Grey6.57J. Grey
O. Pearce7.510O. Pearce
J. Malcolm5.718J. Malcolm

Newport County Substitutes

28K. Etete52'for M. Dibley-Dias54'87'8.1
7K. Evans76'for Yahya Bamba6.3
19G. Garner76'for Tanatswa Nyakuhwa6.5
23M. Adu-Poku89'for Shaquille Gwengwe6.6
33S. MacDonald
34D. Sassi
8M. Smith45'for Matty Jacobs6.3

York Substitutes

30A. Newby72'for Joey Grey6.3
6A. Palmer82'for Ryan Fallowfield6.5
16A. Read72'for Alex Hunt6.1
15J. King
32J. Hunt55'for Joseph Rabole Felix6.2
31G. Sykes-Kenworthy
11F. Maguire72'for Ollie Pearce6.3

Match Stats

Newport CountyYork
52%Ball Possession48%
6Corner Kicks0
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
17Total Shots11
3Shots on Goal1
11Shots off Goal6
11Shots Inside Box5
6Shots Outside Box6
3Blocked Shots4
12Fouls10
0Offsides1
0Goalkeeper Saves2
428Total Passes404
351Passes Accurate309
10Free Kicks11

Team Comparison

Newport CountyNewport County
YorkYork
1492Elo Rating 1621
1.10Attack 1.55
1.80Defense 2.41
17%Hit Rate 41%
13.2Shots per Game 13.9
3.1Shots on Target 4.1
3.8Corners per Game 4.0
1.6Cards per Game 1.5

Game State Tendencies

Newport CountyNewport County
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 67% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
YorkYork
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.3 in first half)

Recent Form

Newport CountyNewport County
3W4D3L
10/10/2026
Newport CountyColchester
10
W
06/10/2026
Newport CountyPlymouth
4252
L
03/10/2026
GillinghamNewport County
00
D26/09/2026
Newport CountyGrimsby
21
W
22/09/2026
Swindon TownNewport County
02
W
19/09/2026
Accrington STNewport County
00
D
12/09/2026
Newport CountyFleetwood Town
11
D
05/09/2026
NorthamptonNewport County
10
L
01/09/2026
Salford CityNewport County
21
L
29/08/2026
Newport CountyTranmere
22
D
YorkYork
3W3D4L
10/10/2026
YorkNorthampton
11
D26/09/2026
YorkGillingham
30
W
22/09/2026
YorkRotherham
4151
L
19/09/2026
ChesterfieldYork
20
L
15/09/2026
YorkNewcastle United U21
13
L
12/09/2026
YorkSwindon Town
40
W
05/09/2026
CreweYork
11
D
01/09/2026
CheltenhamYork
32
L
29/08/2026
YorkExeter City
21
W
22/08/2026
RotherhamYork
11
D

League Table

League Two 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Salford CitySalford City1391323:14+928WWWWW
2BarnetBarnet1274127:17+1025WDLWW
3CheltenhamCheltenham1363422:22021WWLLL
4CreweCrewe1356216:16021LLWWW
5YorkYork1355322:16+620LWDDD
6WalsallWalsall1247118:11+719LWDDD
7ChesterfieldChesterfield1354423:17+619WDLDW
8Exeter CityExeter City1354410:7+319WWDWW
9Accrington STAccrington ST1346322:16+618WDWDW
10ShrewsburyShrewsbury1353516:20-418DWWLW
11GrimsbyGrimsby1345419:16+317WDLLL
12GillinghamGillingham1345418:18017LDLWD
13TranmereTranmere1337316:16016DWLDL
14Swindon TownSwindon Town1344513:16-316DWDLL
15Bristol RoversBristol Rovers1351716:20-416DLLLL
16Newport CountyNewport County1336416:16015LDDWD
17RochdaleRochdale1343615:22-715LDLDW
18Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town1335515:17-214LLWDL
19NorthamptonNorthampton113448:8013WLWDL
20OldhamOldham1233614:18-412DLWDL
21ColchesterColchester1226411:16-512LDDLD
22RotherhamRotherham1326517:23-612DDLLL
23Port ValePort Vale113356:12-612LDWWL
24Crawley TownCrawley Town1113712:21-96DLLDL
#TeamMPGPts
1Salford CitySalford City1323:1428
2BarnetBarnet1227:1725
3CheltenhamCheltenham1322:2221
4CreweCrewe1316:1621
5YorkYork1322:1620
6WalsallWalsall1218:1119
7ChesterfieldChesterfield1323:1719
8Exeter CityExeter City1310:719
9Accrington STAccrington ST1322:1618
10ShrewsburyShrewsbury1316:2018
11GrimsbyGrimsby1319:1617
12GillinghamGillingham1318:1817
13TranmereTranmere1316:1616
14Swindon TownSwindon Town1313:1616
15Bristol RoversBristol Rovers1316:2016
16Newport CountyNewport County1316:1615
17RochdaleRochdale1315:2215
18Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town1315:1714
19NorthamptonNorthampton118:813
20OldhamOldham1214:1812
21ColchesterColchester1211:1612
22RotherhamRotherham1317:2312
23Port ValePort Vale116:1212
24Crawley TownCrawley Town1112:216
PromotionRelegation

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About the Newport County vs York forecast

The forecasts for this League Two match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Newport County and York in the League Two table

In the League Two table, York are 5th and Newport County 16th, 5 points apart. League goal record so far: Newport County 16-16, York 22-16. The full standings are on the League Two Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Newport County and York have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.