Portsmouth vs Swansea Prediction

Portsmouth
3-1
Finished
HT 1-0
Swansea
Fratton Park, Portsmouth·Matthew Corlett 03/11/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
69%Trust
Double Chance
Draw or Away Win
1.40
SignalSOLIDModel38%SurpriseHighGap-2.4%
Value Analysis
63%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.73
SignalSOLIDModel63%SurpriseMediumGap+7.0%
Portsmouth Rest
3 days
Swansea Rest
3 days

Portsmouth vs Swansea: the result in context

Portsmouth beat Swansea 3-1 in the Championship on 3 Nov 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.0 a game across 4 meetings, with both teams scoring in 2. Referee Matthew Corlett averages 4.69 cards a game, 0.67 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
32%2.84
X
30%3.20
2
38%2.50
Double Chance
1X
61%1.49
X2
68%1.40
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%1.83
No
48%1.85
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.19 + 1.26 = 2.45
Over 1.5
69%1.38
Over 2.5
44%2.17
Over 3.5
24%4.00
Under 1.5
31%2.95
Under 2.5
56%1.67
Under 3.5
76%1.24
Corners
Projected Corners: 5 + 4.3 = 9.3
Over 8.5
57%1.48
Over 9.5
45%1.82
Over 10.5
34%2.29
Under 8.5
43%2.50
Under 9.5
55%1.94
Under 10.5
66%1.55
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2.1 = 4
Over 3.5
56%1.56
Over 4.5
37%2.00
Under 3.5
44%2.36
Under 4.5
63%1.73

Match Events

21'Ebou AdamsFoul
24'Stephen Welsh INBen Cabango out
36'Terry DevlinAssist: Odin Bailey
45'melker widell INElijah Just out
54'Iyad Mohamed INMarlon Pack out
61'Adam Idah INZan Vipotnik out
73'Adrian Segecic INAbu Kamara out
73'Ebou Adams INJosh Murphy out
73'Marko Milovanović INThomas Waddingham out
74'Jay Fulton INRoss Stewart out
74'Filip Lissah INJosh Key out
81'Tyrese Shade INZak Swanson out
83'Regan PooleFoul
85'Zan Vipotnik(Penalty)
89'Vitor MatosDissent
90+2'Terry Devlin
90+8'Thomas Waddingham

Lineups

Portsmouth
4-2-3-1Coach: John Mousinho
Swansea
4-3-3Coach: Vítor Matos
Avg rating6.41
Avg rating6.31
N. Schmid6.21N. Schmid
T. Devlin7.824T. Devlin
R. Poole5.85R. Poole
M. Dia6.755M. Dia
J. Meghoma6.116J. Meghoma
E. Adams6.138E. Adams
I. Mohamed5.937I. Mohamed
A. Segecic6.710A. Segecic
O. Bailey6.227O. Bailey
T. Shade6.417T. Shade
M. Milovanović6.029M. Milovanović
L. Vigouroux6.022L. Vigouroux
F. Lissah5.526F. Lissah
J. Seelt6.13J. Seelt
S. Welsh6.423S. Welsh
J. Tymon5.814J. Tymon
Gonçalo Franco6.517G. Franco
J. Fulton5.94J. Fulton
M. Stamenić6.76M. Stamenić
Joseph Okopu6.030J. Okopu
A. Idah6.233A. Idah
M. Widell6.87M. Widell

Portsmouth Substitutes

22Z. Swanson81'for Tyrese Shade6.3
31D. Bielica
11A. Kamara73'for Adrian Segecic6.5
25R. Kavuma McQueen
20T. Waddingham73'for Marko Milovanović90+8'7.5
23J. Murphy73'for Ebou Adams6.3
7M. Pack54'for Iyad Mohamed6.4
6C. Shaughnessy
19R. Shein

Swansea Substitutes

5B. Cabango24'for Stephen Welsh6.2
1A. Fisher
16Tom Iorpenda
8E. Just45'for melker widell7.0
2J. Key74'for Filip Lissah5.9
12J. Monga
31R. Stewart74'for Jay Fulton6.4
9Z. Vipotnik61'for Adam Idah85'7.8
44Thomas Woodward

Match Stats

PortsmouthSwansea
36%Ball Possession64%
5Corner Kicks5
2Yellow Cards0
13Total Shots9
5Shots on Goal3
4Shots off Goal4
9Shots Inside Box4
4Shots Outside Box5
4Blocked Shots2
12Fouls8
3Offsides4
2Goalkeeper Saves2
280Total Passes494
148Passes Accurate373
8Free Kicks12

Team Comparison

PortsmouthPortsmouth
SwanseaSwansea
1624Elo Rating 1673
1.46Attack 0.81
2.03Defense 1.12
63%Hit Rate 50%
11.7Shots per Game 10.8
2.6Shots on Target 3.1
4.2Corners per Game 4.4
2.5Cards per Game 1.5

AI Insights

📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

PortsmouthPortsmouth
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.4 in first half)
SwanseaSwansea
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 4 meetings, all competitions

PortsmouthPortsmouth1Wins · 25%
Draws125%
SwanseaSwansea2Wins · 50%
3.0Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored2 of 4
75%3+ goals3 of 4

Previous meetings

Championship10/03/2026
PortsmouthSwansea
12
Championship09/12/2025
SwanseaPortsmouth
10
Championship01/01/2025
PortsmouthSwansea
40
Championship30/11/2024
SwanseaPortsmouth
22

Referee Profile

Matthew Corlett117 matches

4.69Cards per match
4.52Yellow cards per match
0.16Red cards per match
22.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Matthew Corlett4.69
Other referees4.02

4.69 cards a match, 0.67 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.02).

Cards come from 86 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Championship 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough1384130:17+1328WWDWW
2SwanseaSwansea1382320:13+726WLLWW
3WolvesWolves1373323:16+724WWDWL
4West BromWest Brom1373319:14+524WDWWL
5SouthamptonSouthampton1383228:13+1523WWDWW
6BirminghamBirmingham1365223:13+1023WLWWW
7Stoke CityStoke City1372420:16+423WDWLW
8West HamWest Ham1364333:18+1522LLWWD
9QPRQPR1355321:16+520LWLWD
10Sheffield UtdSheffield Utd1354417:15+219WDWLW
11PortsmouthPortsmouth1354416:15+119DWDWW
12MillwallMillwall1353523:21+218WLDLW
13BlackburnBlackburn1353519:20-118LWLWW
14Bristol CityBristol City1353515:17-218WDLLD
15NorwichNorwich1350823:24-115WWLLL
16LincolnLincoln1343614:23-915LWDLL
17CardiffCardiff1335519:20-114LWDWL
18WrexhamWrexham1335515:19-414LLWLD
19BoltonBolton1342718:26-814LLDWL
20CharltonCharlton1335511:21-1014LLLDD
21WatfordWatford1332812:23-1111LLWLL
22BurnleyBurnley1316617:25-89DLLDW
23DerbyDerby1314811:25-147LDLLD
24PrestonPreston13121010:27-175LDLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough1330:1728
2SwanseaSwansea1320:1326
3WolvesWolves1323:1624
4West BromWest Brom1319:1424
5SouthamptonSouthampton1328:1323
6BirminghamBirmingham1323:1323
7Stoke CityStoke City1320:1623
8West HamWest Ham1333:1822
9QPRQPR1321:1620
10Sheffield UtdSheffield Utd1317:1519
11PortsmouthPortsmouth1316:1519
12MillwallMillwall1323:2118
13BlackburnBlackburn1319:2018
14Bristol CityBristol City1315:1718
15NorwichNorwich1323:2415
16LincolnLincoln1314:2315
17CardiffCardiff1319:2014
18WrexhamWrexham1315:1914
19BoltonBolton1318:2614
20CharltonCharlton1311:2114
21WatfordWatford1312:2311
22BurnleyBurnley1317:259
23DerbyDerby1311:257
24PrestonPreston1310:275
PromotionRelegation

About the Portsmouth vs Swansea forecast

The forecasts for this Championship match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Portsmouth and Swansea in the Championship table

In the Championship table, Swansea are 2nd and Portsmouth 11th, 7 points apart. League goal record so far: Portsmouth 16-15, Swansea 20-13. The full standings are on the Championship Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.