Santos vs Bahia Prediction

Santos
1-1
Finished
HT 0-1
Bahia
Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Santos·Savio Pereira Sampaio 25/10/2026
SantosSantos
1-1
Finished
BahiaBahia

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
74%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.25
SignalGOODModel51%SurpriseMediumGap-5.8%
Santos Rest
6 days
Bahia Rest
6 days

Santos vs Bahia: result, form and history

Santos and Bahia drew 1-1 in the Serie A on 25 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 9 previous meetings averaged 2.3 goals, with both teams scoring in 4 of them. Referee Savio Pereira Sampaio averages 4.52 cards a game, 0.66 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
52%1.84
X
24%3.99
2
24%3.83
Double Chance
1X
76%1.25
X2
48%1.94
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%1.50
No
40%2.45
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.45 + 1.2 = 2.65
Over 1.5
80%1.17
Over 2.5
59%1.54
Over 3.5
37%2.35
Under 1.5
20%5.00
Under 2.5
41%2.40
Under 3.5
63%1.60
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.7 + 4.4 = 10.1
Over 8.5
66%1.26
Over 9.5
55%1.48
Over 10.5
43%1.85
Under 8.5
34%3.25
Under 9.5
45%2.40
Under 10.5
57%1.90
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.6 = 4.6
Over 3.5
68%1.25
Over 4.5
50%1.57
Under 3.5
32%3.75
Under 4.5
50%2.33

Match Events

31'Neymar da Silva Santos JúniorArgument
39'Luciano
44'Nicolas AcevedoFoul
45'Neymar da Silva Santos JúniorAbusive Language
45'Gabriel Bontempo INJoão Schmidt out
45'Philippe Coutinho INRony out
50'KanuFoul
57'Kanu INMarco Moreno out
57'Nicolas Acevedo INMichel Araujo out
67'Rodrigo Nestor INWendel Silva Passos out
70'Everton INBenjamín Rollheiser out
70'Álvaro Barreal INRafael Gonzaga out
79'erick pulga INRuan Pablo Barbosa Sousa out
79'Marcos Victor INZé Guilherme out
87'Rodinei INGustavo Caballero out
89'João SchmidtFoul
90+3'Luan PeresAssist: Benjamín Rollheiser

Lineups

Santos
4-2-3-1Coach: Cuca
Bahia
4-3-3Coach: Rogério Ceni
Avg rating6.42
Avg rating6.66
Diógenes6.21Diógenes
Rodinei6.823Rodinei
João Alencar6.042J. Alencar
Luan Peres7.314L. Peres
Á. Barreal7.022Á. Barreal
Gustavo Henrique Pereira6.648G. Henrique Pereira
Gabriel Bontempo6.18G. Bontempo
Everton6.47Everton
Philippe Coutinho6.011P. Coutinho
Neymar5.210Neymar
Gabriel Barbosa6.79G. Barbosa
Ronaldo8.81Ronaldo
Marcos Victor6.444M. Victor
David Duarte7.033D. Duarte
Kanu6.84Kanu
Luciano Juba6.946L. Juba
Erick6.214Erick
N. Acevedo6.25N. Acevedo
Rodrigo Nestor6.911R. Nestor
C. Olivera6.399C. Olivera
A. Véliz6.19A. Véliz
Erick Pulga6.316E. Pulga

Santos Substitutes

17G. Caballero87'for Rodinei6.5
26João Paulo Ananias
25Gabriel Menino
45Lima
28C. Oliva
32B. Rollheiser70'for Everton6.3
5João Schmidt45'for Gabriel Bontempo89'6.2
34João Paulo
30M. Terceros
33Rony45'for Philippe Coutinho7.0
38Rafael Gonzaga70'for Álvaro Barreal6.3
18Igor Vinicius

Bahia Substitutes

10Éverton Ribeiro
12Willian José
7Ademir
27Everaldo
8Caio Alexandre
67Wendel Silva67'for Rodrigo Nestor6.4
23M. Sanabria
3Marco Moreno57'for Kanu6.7
17G. Herrera
77Ruan Pablo79'for erick pulga6.5
15M. Araújo57'for Nicolas Acevedo6.5
66Zé Guilherme79'for Marcos Victor6.7

Match Stats

SantosBahia
56%Ball Possession44%
14Corner Kicks8
2Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
23Total Shots16
11Shots on Goal2
7Shots off Goal8
16Shots Inside Box13
7Shots Outside Box3
5Blocked Shots6
13Fouls23
2Offsides2
0Goalkeeper Saves10
312Total Passes241
189Passes Accurate135
23Free Kicks13

Team Comparison

SantosSantos
BahiaBahia
1771Elo Rating 1723
1.07Attack 1.20
1.96Defense 1.51
19%Hit Rate 44%
16.8Shots per Game 13.0
5.9Shots on Target 2.6
5.7Corners per Game 5.9
3.4Cards per Game 2.2

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

SantosSantos
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
BahiaBahia
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.9 vs 0.3 in second half)

Head to Head

Last 9 meetings, all competitions

SantosSantos2Wins · 22%
Draws556%
BahiaBahia2Wins · 22%
2.3Avg Goals
44%Both teams scored4 of 9
56%3+ goals5 of 9

Previous meetings

Serie A25/04/2026
BahiaSantos
22
Serie A24/08/2025
BahiaSantos
20
Serie A07/04/2025
SantosBahia
22
Serie A19/09/2023
BahiaSantos
12
Copa Do Brasil01/06/2023
BahiaSantos
4131
Copa Do Brasil18/05/2023
SantosBahia
00
Serie A11/05/2023
SantosBahia
30
Serie A12/09/2021
SantosBahia
00
Serie A30/05/2021
BahiaSantos
30

Referee Profile

Savio Pereira Sampaio168 matches

4.52Cards per match
4.34Yellow cards per match
0.18Red cards per match
26.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Savio Pereira Sampaio4.52
Other referees5.18

4.52 cards a match, 0.66 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.18).

Cards come from 151 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo33227468:28+4073WWWWD
2PalmeirasPalmeiras332010356:22+3470DWWWW
3CruzeiroCruzeiro331761052:46+657WWWLW
4FluminenseFluminense33159952:42+1054WLLLW
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense33159950:40+1054LDLWD
6BahiaBahia331411848:42+653WDLWL
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG331481144:39+550LLWWD
8SantosSantos3312111049:47+247DDWLD
9RB BragantinoRB Bragantino331281342:38+444WLDWD
10Sao PauloSao Paulo331271439:39043LDWWL
11BotafogoBotafogo331091445:53-839LLWDL
12CoritibaCoritiba321091338:50-1239LLDLL
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama321081440:49-938LWLDW
14VitoriaVitoria321081435:46-1138DDLWL
15GremioGremio339101437:44-737WWLDD
16MirassolMirassol329101337:45-837DWLDW
17InternacionalInternacional338111437:42-535LWLDW
18CorinthiansCorinthians32891534:42-833LDLLL
19RemoRemo336111636:51-1529WLDDD
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc32491932:66-3421LWLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3368:2873
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3356:2270
3CruzeiroCruzeiro3352:4657
4FluminenseFluminense3352:4254
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3350:4054
6BahiaBahia3348:4253
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3344:3950
8SantosSantos3349:4747
9RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3342:3844
10Sao PauloSao Paulo3339:3943
11BotafogoBotafogo3345:5339
12CoritibaCoritiba3238:5039
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3240:4938
14VitoriaVitoria3235:4638
15GremioGremio3337:4437
16MirassolMirassol3237:4537
17InternacionalInternacional3337:4235
18CorinthiansCorinthians3234:4233
19RemoRemo3336:5129
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3232:6621
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About the Santos vs Bahia forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Santos and Bahia in the Serie A table

Bahia and Santos are close in the Serie A table, 6th and 8th, with 6 points between them. League goal record so far: Santos 49-47, Bahia 48-42. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.