Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense Prediction

Serie A

Brazil · Regular Season - 32

Chapecoense-sc

2-1

Finished

HT 1-1

Fluminense

Arena Condá, Chapeco·Anderson Daronco 25/10/2026

Chapecoense-sc

2-1

Finished

Fluminense

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality

Complete

Match Importance

4.4 / 10

Value Analysis

67%Trust

Away Cards

Away Cards Under 2.5

1.56

SignalGOODModel67%SurpriseMediumGap+5.4%

Chapecoense-sc Rest

7 days

Fluminense Rest

2 days

Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense: the result in context

Chapecoense-sc beat Fluminense 2-1 in the Serie A on 24 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.0 a game across 3 meetings, with both teams scoring in 2. Referee Anderson Daronco averages 4.49 cards a game, 0.71 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result

20%4.50

25%3.70

55%1.77

Double Chance

45%1.96

80%1.20

Both Teams to Score

Yes

55%1.74

45%2.00

Goals

Projected Goals: 1.14 + 1.74 = 2.88

Over 1.5

76%1.25

Over 2.5

53%1.84

Over 3.5

32%3.10

Under 1.5

24%3.70

Under 2.5

47%1.96

Under 3.5

68%1.36

Corners

Projected Corners: 4.4 + 5.3 = 9.6

Over 8.5

61%1.44

Over 9.5

49%1.74

Over 10.5

37%2.25

Under 8.5

39%2.53

Under 9.5

51%1.97

Under 10.5

63%1.58

Cards

Projected Cards: 2.6 + 2 = 4.6

Over 3.5

68%1.47

Over 4.5

49%1.83

Under 3.5

32%2.60

Under 4.5

51%1.83

Match Events

9'Yannick BolasieAssist: Giovanni Augusto

30'Claudio Rodrigues GomesAssist: Hulk

37'Camilo Reijers de OliveiraFoul

45'Maurício Garcez INTulio Eduardo Silva De Oliveira out

56'Giovanni AugustoAssist: Tulio Eduardo Silva De Oliveira

57'Yago FelipeFoul

65'Wesley Natã de Freitas Prado INRiquelme Felipe·Silva de Almeida out

65'Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima INLuciano Acosta out

70'Yannick Bolasie INKevin Ramírez out

70'Yago Felipe INBruno Matias out

73'João Paulo INRafael Thyere out

79'Hércules Pereira do Nascimento INRodrigo Castillo out

83'Marcio Antonio de Sousa Junior INFernando Augusto Pereira Bueno Júnior out

85'Hulk INGermán Ezequiel Cano Recalde out

85'Igor Rabello INRenê Rodrigues Martins out

90+2'Guilherme AranaFoul

Lineups

Chapecoense-sc

4-2-3-1Coach: Rafael Lacerda

Fluminense

4-2-3-1Coach: Marcão

Avg rating6.57

6.798Anderson

6.920B. Tubarão

6.53Doma

7.04J. Paulo

6.691B. Pacheco

6.427Camilo

6.188Y. Felipe

6.27Marcinho

9.010G. Augusto

6.231Garcez

7.911Y. Bolasie

5.81Fábio

7.623Guga

6.84Ignacio

6.721I. Rabello

6.113G. Arana

6.816Nonato

7.035Hércules

6.034W. Nata

6.310P. Ganso

6.290K. Serna

6.67Hulk

Chapecoense-sc Substitutes

80Miguel Carvalho

16Bruno Matias70'for Yago Felipe6.3

19David Antunes

23Dudu

12Fernando83'for Marcio Antonio de Sousa Junior6.4

22Max

15Rafael Thyere73'for João Paulo6.3

94K. Ramírez70'for Yannick Bolasie6.6

9Tulio Eduardo Silva De Oliveira45'replaced by Maurício Garcez

29F. Rossi

30Matheus Aurélio

39Rodrigo

Fluminense Substitutes

19R. Castillo79'for Hércules Pereira do Nascimento6.5

22J. Freytes

94Otávio

6Renê85'for Igor Rabello6.5

28Riquelme65'for Wesley Natã de Freitas Prado6.9

2Samuel Xavier

3Thiago Silva

98Vitor Eudes

32L. Acosta65'for Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima6.7

14G. Cano85'for Hulk

17A. Canobbio

41Ruan Sales Oliveira

Match Stats

Chapecoense-scFluminense

26%Ball Possession74%

3Corner Kicks6

2Yellow Cards1

6Total Shots16

3Shots on Goal4

2Shots off Goal9

1Shots Inside Box10

5Shots Outside Box6

1Blocked Shots3

12Fouls12

2Offsides0

3Goalkeeper Saves1

253Total Passes730

195Passes Accurate672

12Free Kicks12

Chapecoense-sc

Fluminense

1508Elo Rating 1742

0.54Attack 1.26

0.59Defense 1.99

0%Hit Rate 41%

12.4Shots per Game 10.0

2.8Shots on Target 3.5

4.5Corners per Game 3.9

2.0Cards per Game 1.6

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.88 goals

📈BTTS Trend67% in H2H

📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Chapecoense-sc

No tendency data available

Fluminense

Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.4 in first half)
Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 3 meetings, all competitions

Chapecoense-sc0Wins · 0%

Draws00%

Fluminense

3Wins · 100%

3.0Avg Goals

67%Both teams scored2 of 3

100%3+ goals3 of 3

Previous meetings

27/04/2026

Fluminense

Chapecoense-sc

10/12/2021

Fluminense

Chapecoense-sc

08/09/2021

Chapecoense-sc

Fluminense

Recent Form

17/10/2026

Botafogo

Chapecoense-sc

13/10/2026

Chapecoense-sc

Atletico Paranaense

08/10/2026

Vitoria

Chapecoense-sc

26/09/2026

Atletico Nacional

Chapecoense-sc

06/09/2026

Fluminense

Vasco DA Gama

Referee Profile

Anderson Daronco306 matches

4.49Cards per match

4.26Yellow cards per match

0.23Red cards per match

27.2Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Anderson Daronco4.49

Other referees5.20

4.49 cards a match, 0.71 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.20).

Cards come from 238 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	Pts	Form
1	Flamengo	32	21	7	4	64:27	+37	70	WWWDW
2	Palmeiras	33	20	10	3	56:22	+34	70	DWWWW
3	Cruzeiro	32	16	6	10	51:46	+5	54	WWWLW
4	Atletico Paranaense	32	15	9	8	50:38	+12	54	DLWDW
5	Fluminense	33	15	9	9	52:42	+10	54	WLLLW
6	Bahia	33	14	11	8	48:42	+6	53	WDLWL
7	Atletico-MG	32	14	8	10	44:38	+6	50	LWWDW
8	Santos	33	12	11	10	49:47	+2	47	DDWLD
9	RB Bragantino	33	12	8	13	42:38	+4	44	WLDWD
10	Sao Paulo	33	12	7	14	39:39	0	43	LDWWL
11	Botafogo	33	10	9	14	45:53	-8	39	LLWDL
12	Coritiba	32	10	9	13	38:50	-12	39	LLDLL
13	Vasco DA Gama	31	10	8	13	39:45	-6	38	WLDWW
14	Vitoria	32	10	8	14	35:46	-11	38	DDLWL
15	Mirassol	32	9	10	13	37:45	-8	37	DWLDW
16	Internacional	33	8	11	14	37:42	-5	35	LWLDW
17	Gremio	32	8	10	14	35:44	-9	34	WLDDD
18	Corinthians	32	8	9	15	34:42	-8	33	LDLLL
19	Remo	33	6	11	16	36:51	-15	29	WLDDD
20	Chapecoense-sc	32	4	9	19	32:66	-34	21	LWLLL

#	Team	MP	G	Pts
1	Flamengo	32	64:27	70
2	Palmeiras	33	56:22	70
3	Cruzeiro	32	51:46	54
4	Atletico Paranaense	32	50:38	54
5	Fluminense	33	52:42	54
6	Bahia	33	48:42	53
7	Atletico-MG	32	44:38	50
8	Santos	33	49:47	47
9	RB Bragantino	33	42:38	44
10	Sao Paulo	33	39:39	43
11	Botafogo	33	45:53	39
12	Coritiba	32	38:50	39
13	Vasco DA Gama	31	39:45	38
14	Vitoria	32	35:46	38
15	Mirassol	32	37:45	37
16	Internacional	33	37:42	35
17	Gremio	32	35:44	34
18	Corinthians	32	34:42	33
19	Remo	33	36:51	29
20	Chapecoense-sc	32	32:66	21

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About the Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense forecast

The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Chapecoense-sc and Fluminense in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Fluminense are 5th and Chapecoense-sc 20th, 33 points apart. League goal record so far: Chapecoense-sc 32-66, Fluminense 52-42. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.

Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense: the result in context

Match Forecasts

Match Events