Flamengo vs Atletico-MG Prediction
Brazil · Regular Season - 32
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
77%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.24
SignalHIGHModel74%SurpriseMediumGap-4.1%
Value Analysis
73%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.58
SignalHIGHModel73%SurpriseMediumGap+11.0%
Flamengo Rest
3 days
Atletico-MG Rest
5 days
Flamengo vs Atletico-MG: result, form and history
Flamengo beat Atletico-MG 3-2 in the Serie A on 26 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Flamengo have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.3 goals a game.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
174%1.24
X18%6.00
28%12.00
Double Chance
1X92%1.04
X226%3.92
Both Teams to Score
Yes49%2.05
No51%1.72
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.79 + 0.89 = 2.68
Over 1.580%1.14
Over 2.559%1.54
Over 3.537%2.39
Under 1.520%5.00
Under 2.541%2.40
Under 3.563%1.57
Corners
Projected Corners: 7 + 3.8 = 10.8
Over 8.573%1.32
Over 9.562%1.62
Over 10.551%1.95
Under 8.527%2.81
Under 9.538%2.13
Under 10.549%1.79
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2.6 = 4.4
Over 3.564%1.36
Over 4.544%1.91
Under 3.536%2.96
Under 4.556%1.80
Match Events
7'Bernard Anício Caldeira DuarteAssist: Angelo Preciado
34'Gonzalo PlataAssist: Guillermo Varela
41'Giorgian de ArrascaetaAssist: Samuel Lino
45'Alex Sandro INAyrton Lucas out
59'Renan LodiAssist: Victor Hugo Gomes Silva
63'Maycon de Andrade Barberan INKevin Castaño out
63'Igor Gomes INReinier Jesus Carvalho out
63'Angelo Preciado INAlan Minda out
69'Gonzalo Plata INJorge Carrascal out
69'Pedro INBruno Henrique out
75'Léo PereiraFoul
75'Giorgian de Arrascaeta INJoaquín Freitas out
75'Jorginho INLucas Paquetá out
76'Jorge CarrascalFoul
90+1'Victor Hugo Gomes Silva INVitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souza out
90+1'Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte INAlexsander Cristhian Gomes da Costa out
90+8'Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de SouzaDissent
90+9'Jorge Carrascal(Penalty)
Lineups
FlamengoAtletico-MG
4-4-2Coach: E. DomínguezAvg ratingAvg rating
1A. Rossi
2G. Varela
3L. Ortiz
4L. Pereira
26A. Sandro
5E. Pulgar
21Jorginho
19G. Plata
10G. de Arrascaeta
16S. Lino
9Pedro
1G. Delfim
2Natanael
40Vitão
13Lyanco
6R. Lodi
23A. Preciado
8Maycon
21A. Franco
11Bernard
30V. Hugo
17I. GomesFlamengo Substitutes
15J. Carrascal69'for Gonzalo Plata76'90+9'
6Ayrton Lucas45'for Alex Sandro
30J. Freitas75'for Giorgian de Arrascaeta
22Emerson Royal
27Bruno Henrique69'for Pedro
11Lucas Paquetá75'for Jorginho
44Vitão
42Andrew
7Luiz Araújo
61João Victor Cunha
18N. de la Cruz
49Dyogo
Atletico-MG Substitutes
15K. Castaño63'for Maycon de Andrade Barberan
5Alexsander90+1'for Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte
39Mamady Cisse
3Léo Duarte
92Dudu
10Gustavo Scarpa
27A. Minda63'for Angelo Preciado
36K. Pascini
25T. Pérez
19Reinier63'for Igor Gomes
31Robert
14Vitor Hugo90+1'for Victor Hugo Gomes Silva90+8'
Match Stats
FlamengoAtletico-MG 72%Ball Possession28%
14Corner Kicks0
2Yellow Cards2
29Total Shots5
9Shots on Goal4
9Shots off Goal1
19Shots Inside Box5
10Shots Outside Box0
11Blocked Shots0
9Fouls15
0Offsides3
2Goalkeeper Saves6
804Total Passes328
739Passes Accurate260
14Free Kicks8
Team Comparison
FlamengoAtletico-MG1908Elo Rating 1770
1.13Attack 1.43
2.72Defense 2.01
39%Hit Rate 59%
13.8Shots per Game 14.8
6.1Shots on Target 6.5
7.0Corners per Game 6.3
2.2Cards per Game 1.9
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+138 Elo
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Flamengo- Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.3 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Atletico-MG- Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.5 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Flamengo6Wins · 60%Draws220%
Atletico-MG2Wins · 20%
2Wins · 20%2.3Avg Goals
30%Both teams scored3 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10
Previous meetings
27/04/2026Atletico-MGFlamengo04
26/11/2025Atletico-MGFlamengo11
07/08/2025Atletico-MGFlamengo4031
01/08/2025FlamengoAtletico-MG01
28/07/2025FlamengoAtletico-MG10
14/11/2024FlamengoAtletico-MG00
10/11/2024Atletico-MGFlamengo01
03/11/2024FlamengoAtletico-MG31
04/07/2024Atletico-MGFlamengo24
29/11/2023FlamengoAtletico-MG03
Recent Form
Flamengo6W3D1L
23/10/2026Flamengo
Estudiantes L.P.
BahiaFlamengoEstudiantes L.P.FlamengoFlamengo
FluminenseFlamengo
RB BragantinoFlamengo
Corinthians
Independiente del ValleFlamengo
RemoFlamengo
FlamengoEstudiantes L.P.2030
L18/10/2026BahiaFlamengo03
W16/10/2026Estudiantes L.P.Flamengo00
D11/10/2026FlamengoFluminense10
W09/10/2026
SantosFlamengo
20/09/2026SantosFlamengo22
DFlamengoRB Bragantino21
W18/09/2026FlamengoIndependiente del Valle
13/09/2026FlamengoIndependiente del Valle11
DFlamengoCorinthians21
W11/09/2026Independiente del ValleFlamengo02
W06/09/2026RemoFlamengo01
WAtletico-MG6W2D2L
22/10/2026
Atletico TorqueAtletico-MGAtletico-MG
CoritibaAtletico-MGAtletico TorqueAtletico-MGSantos
Atletico ParanaenseAtletico-MGAtletico-MGRB BragantinoAtletico-MG
Chapecoense-scAtletico-MGSantosAtletico-MGFluminenseSantosAtletico-MG
Atletico TorqueAtletico-MG20
L17/10/2026Atletico-MGCoritiba10
W15/10/2026Atletico-MGAtletico Torque30
W11/10/2026Atletico-MGSantos21
W09/10/2026Atletico ParanaenseAtletico-MG22
D03/10/2026Atletico-MGRB Bragantino10
W19/09/2026Atletico-MGChapecoense-sc11
D17/09/2026Atletico-MGSantos3412
W12/09/2026Atletico-MGFluminense31
W10/09/2026SantosAtletico-MG20
LReferee Profile
5.34Cards per match
5.09Yellow cards per match
0.25Red cards per match
27.7Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
5.34 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.26).
Cards come from 116 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 32 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 64:27 | +37 | 70 | WWWDW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 33 | 20 | 10 | 3 | 56:22 | +34 | 70 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 51:46 | +5 | 54 | WWWLW |
| 4 | Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 50:38 | +12 | 54 | DLWDW |
| 5 | Fluminense | 33 | 15 | 9 | 9 | 52:42 | +10 | 54 | WLLLW |
| 6 | Bahia | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 48:42 | +6 | 53 | WDLWL |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 44:38 | +6 | 50 | LWWDW |
| 8 | Santos | 33 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 49:47 | +2 | 47 | DDWLD |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 33 | 12 | 8 | 13 | 42:38 | +4 | 44 | WLDWD |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 39:39 | 0 | 43 | LDWWL |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 45:53 | -8 | 39 | LLWDL |
| 12 | Coritiba | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 38:50 | -12 | 39 | LLDLL |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 39:45 | -6 | 38 | WLDWW |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 35:46 | -11 | 38 | DDLWL |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37:45 | -8 | 37 | DWLDW |
| 16 |  Internacional | 33 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 37:42 | -5 | 35 | LWLDW |
| 17 |  Gremio | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 35:44 | -9 | 34 | WLDDD |
| 18 | Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 34:42 | -8 | 33 | LDLLL |
| 19 | Remo | 33 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 36:51 | -15 | 29 | WLDDD |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 32 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 32:66 | -34 | 21 | LWLLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 32 | 64:27 | 70 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 33 | 56:22 | 70 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 32 | 51:46 | 54 |
| 4 | Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 50:38 | 54 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 33 | 52:42 | 54 |
| 6 | Bahia | 33 | 48:42 | 53 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 32 | 44:38 | 50 |
| 8 | Santos | 33 | 49:47 | 47 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 33 | 42:38 | 44 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 33 | 39:39 | 43 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 33 | 45:53 | 39 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 32 | 38:50 | 39 |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 39:45 | 38 |
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | 35:46 | 38 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 32 | 37:45 | 37 |
| 16 | Internacional | 33 | 37:42 | 35 |
| 17 | Gremio | 32 | 35:44 | 34 |
| 18 | Corinthians | 32 | 34:42 | 33 |
| 19 | Remo | 33 | 36:51 | 29 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 32 | 32:66 | 21 |
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About the Flamengo vs Atletico-MG forecast
Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Flamengo and Atletico-MG in the Serie A table
In the Serie A table, Flamengo are 1st and Atletico-MG 7th, 20 points apart. League goal record so far: Flamengo 64-27, Atletico-MG 44-38. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.