UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar Prediction
Peru · Clausura - 13
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
81%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.19
SignalSTRONGModel66%SurpriseMediumGap-3.1%
UTC Cajamarca Rest
4 days
FBC Melgar Rest
5 days
UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar: the result in context
FBC Melgar beat UTC Cajamarca 2-1 in the Primera División on 23 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: FBC Melgar had won 3 of their previous five, compared with none for UTC Cajamarca.
FBC Melgar have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.5 goals a game. FBC Melgar tend to win more corners, 5.2 a game to 2.9 for UTC Cajamarca.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
117%5.00
X22%4.03
261%1.57
Double Chance
1X39%2.29
X283%1.14
Both Teams to Score
Yes55%1.72
No45%2.00
Goals
Projected Goals: 0.9 + 2.52 = 3.42
Over 1.580%1.19
Over 2.560%1.65
Over 3.540%2.62
Under 1.520%4.05
Under 2.540%2.11
Under 3.560%1.44
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.4 + 6.3 = 10.7
Over 8.572%1.46
Over 9.561%1.83
Over 10.549%2.29
Under 8.528%2.48
Under 9.539%1.85
Under 10.551%1.52
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.4 + 2.1 = 4.5
Over 3.566%-
Over 4.547%1.78
Under 3.534%-
Under 4.553%1.93
Match Events
7'Bernardo CuestaAssist: Walter Tandazo
34'David DiosesFoul
34'Manuel GanozaDissent
45'Francesco Cavagna INDylan Caro out
45'Walter Tandazo INMarcos Portillo out
45'Marlon de Jesús INAbdiel Arroyo out
45+3'Bernardo Cuesta INJefferson Caceres out
61'David Dioses INJoshua Cantt out
64'Juan EscobarDissent
68'Nicolas QuagliataAssist: Nelson Cabanillas
70'David Camacho INGilmar Paredes out
70'Luis Arce INJhosep Nunez out
74'Joshua CanttFoul
75'Nicolas Quagliata INJesús Alcantar out
81'Johnny Vidales INFranco Zanelatto out
87'Luis GarroAssist: Adolfo Muñoz
90'Jesús AlcantarFoul
90+3'Cristian BordacaharFoul
Lineups
UTC CajamarcaFBC Melgar
4-2-3-1Coach: M. RondelliAvg ratingAvg rating
1Á. Campos
17L. Garro
3M. Ganoza
2B. Duarte
6F. Cavagna
8D. Dioses
88L. Arce
22D. Camacho
10M. Lliuya
19A. Muñoz
9M. de Jesús
21J. Cabezudo
33M. Lazo
23J. Escobar
3L. González
27N. Cabanillas
66H. Orzán
24W. Tandazo
7C. Bordacahar
10N. Quagliata
11J. Vidales
9B. CuestaUTC Cajamarca Substitutes
11A. Arroyo45'for Marlon de Jesús
29I. Barrios
21R. Bettocchi
15J. Cerro61'for David Dioses74'
13D. Caro45'for Francesco Cavagna
18S. Gálvez
7J. Nunez70'for Luis Arce
35G. Paredes70'for David Camacho
FBC Melgar Substitutes
45Matias Zegarra
77F. Zanelatto81'for Johnny Vidales
26M. Portillo45'for Walter Tandazo
8L. Guzmán
5A. Deneumostier
80J. D´Arrigo
16J. Cáceres45+3'for Bernardo Cuesta
12C. Cáceda
90J. Alcántar75'for Nicolas Quagliata90'
Match Stats
UTC CajamarcaFBC Melgar 54%Ball Possession46%
4Corner Kicks2
3Yellow Cards3
19Total Shots8
9Shots on Goal5
4Shots off Goal3
6Shots Inside Box3
13Shots Outside Box5
6Blocked Shots0
10Fouls10
0Offsides3
3Goalkeeper Saves8
443Total Passes401
364Passes Accurate333
9Free Kicks9
Team Comparison
UTC CajamarcaFBC Melgar1403Elo Rating 1699
0.74Attack 2.15
1.26Defense 1.72
0%Hit Rate 64%
14.7Shots per Game 16.1
6.0Shots on Target 7.0
2.9Corners per Game 5.2
3.3Cards per Game 2.1
AI Insights
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.42 goals
📉Home Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
UTC Cajamarca- Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.2 in first half)
FBC Melgar- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.9 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
UTC Cajamarca2Wins · 20%Draws220%
FBC Melgar6Wins · 60%
6Wins · 60%2.5Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10
Previous meetings
04/05/2026FBC MelgarUTC Cajamarca20
19/07/2025UTC CajamarcaFBC Melgar12
08/02/2025FBC MelgarUTC Cajamarca30
23/10/2024FBC MelgarUTC Cajamarca10
12/05/2024UTC CajamarcaFBC Melgar26
16/08/2023FBC MelgarUTC Cajamarca11
18/03/2023UTC CajamarcaFBC Melgar00
29/07/2022FBC MelgarUTC Cajamarca10
04/03/2022UTC CajamarcaFBC Melgar31
17/08/2021FBC MelgarUTC Cajamarca01
Recent Form
UTC Cajamarca0W1D9L
19/10/2026
CiencianoUTC Cajamarca
Sport HuancayoUTC CajamarcaUTC Cajamarca
Juan Pablo II College
Alianza AtleticoUTC CajamarcaUTC Cajamarca
UniversitarioUTC Cajamarca
Comerciantes UnidosUTC Cajamarca
ADT
CiencianoUTC Cajamarca10
L11/10/2026UTC Cajamarca
Sporting Cristal
20/09/2026UTC CajamarcaSporting Cristal01
LSport HuancayoUTC Cajamarca32
L11/09/2026UTC CajamarcaJuan Pablo II College12
L04/09/2026Alianza AtleticoUTC Cajamarca32
L29/08/2026UTC CajamarcaUniversitario24
L25/08/2026Alianza AtleticoUTC Cajamarca
22/08/2026Alianza AtleticoUTC Cajamarca5141
LUTC CajamarcaComerciantes Unidos13
L16/08/2026
Alianza LimaUTC Cajamarca
08/08/2026Alianza LimaUTC Cajamarca10
LUTC CajamarcaADT11
DFBC Melgar4W4D2L
18/10/2026FBC Melgar
Deportivo GarcilasoUniversitarioFBC MelgarFBC Melgar
Sport Boys
CuscoFBC MelgarFBC MelgarADT
Atletico GrauFBC MelgarFBC MelgarAlianza Lima
Club Deportivo Los ChankasFBC MelgarFBC Melgar
FC Cajamarca
UCV MoqueguaFBC Melgar
FBC MelgarDeportivo Garcilaso42
W11/10/2026UniversitarioFBC Melgar22
D20/09/2026FBC MelgarSport Boys11
D12/09/2026CuscoFBC Melgar01
W07/09/2026FBC MelgarADT30
W01/09/2026Atletico GrauFBC Melgar10
L23/08/2026FBC MelgarAlianza Lima11
D15/08/2026Club Deportivo Los ChankasFBC Melgar03
W09/08/2026FBC MelgarFC Cajamarca24
L02/08/2026UCV MoqueguaFBC Melgar00
DReferee Profile
4.71Cards per match
4.53Yellow cards per match
0.18Red cards per match
24.4Fouls per match
Strictness
Stricter than 65% of referees analysed
Model estimates, weighted toward the competition average while the sample is small.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Primera Division: Tabla Anual
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 30 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 50:20 | +30 | 65 | WWWWL |
| 2 | Universitario | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 52:34 | +18 | 56 | WLWLW |
| 3 | FBC Melgar | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 53:34 | +19 | 53 | WLWWL |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 47:33 | +14 | 51 | WWWLL |
| 5 | Cusco | 31 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 46:43 | +3 | 51 | DDWWL |
| 6 | Cienciano | 31 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 53:43 | +10 | 50 | WWDLW |
| 7 | Alianza Atletico | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 48:46 | +2 | 46 | LWWLL |
| 8 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 39:51 | -12 | 46 | DLLWW |
| 9 | Sporting Cristal | 30 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 54:45 | +9 | 44 | DLLWL |
| 10 | Sport Huancayo | 31 | 13 | 5 | 13 | 44:48 | -4 | 44 | WLLWD |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 34:33 | +1 | 41 | LDWLL |
| 12 | Juan Pablo II College | 31 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 47:56 | -9 | 41 | LLDDL |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 41:44 | -3 | 34 | LWWDD |
| 14 | Atletico Grau | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 28:38 | -10 | 34 | LLLWL |
| 15 | ADT | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 33:45 | -12 | 30 | DWWDL |
| 16 | FC Cajamarca | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 44:60 | -16 | 28 | WWLLD |
| 17 | UCV Moquegua | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 25:46 | -21 | 28 | DLWLW |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 36:55 | -19 | 18 | LLDLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 30 | 50:20 | 65 |
| 2 | Universitario | 30 | 52:34 | 56 |
| 3 | FBC Melgar | 30 | 53:34 | 53 |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 31 | 47:33 | 51 |
| 5 | Cusco | 31 | 46:43 | 51 |
| 6 | Cienciano | 31 | 53:43 | 50 |
| 7 | Alianza Atletico | 31 | 48:46 | 46 |
| 8 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 31 | 39:51 | 46 |
| 9 | Sporting Cristal | 30 | 54:45 | 44 |
| 10 | Sport Huancayo | 31 | 44:48 | 44 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 30 | 34:33 | 41 |
| 12 | Juan Pablo II College | 31 | 47:56 | 41 |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 30 | 41:44 | 34 |
| 14 | Atletico Grau | 31 | 28:38 | 34 |
| 15 | ADT | 31 | 33:45 | 30 |
| 16 | FC Cajamarca | 31 | 44:60 | 28 |
| 17 | UCV Moquegua | 31 | 25:46 | 28 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 31 | 36:55 | 18 |
Primera Division: Apertura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30:8 | +22 | 40 | WWWWL |
| 2 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 25:21 | +4 | 34 | DLLWW |
| 3 | Cienciano | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 34:22 | +12 | 33 | WWDLW |
| 4 | Universitario | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24:15 | +9 | 29 | WLWLW |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29:20 | +9 | 28 | WLWWL |
| 6 | Cusco | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 21:24 | -3 | 27 | DDWWL |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21:18 | +3 | 26 | WWWLL |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20:18 | +2 | 21 | LWWLL |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18:20 | -2 | 21 | LWWDD |
| 10 | ADT | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 22:21 | +1 | 20 | DWWDL |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 15:19 | -4 | 20 | LDWLL |
| 12 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 28:30 | -2 | 19 | DLLWL |
| 13 | UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 21:26 | -5 | 18 | LLDLD |
| 14 | UCV Moquegua | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 17:24 | -7 | 18 | DLWLW |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 23:28 | -5 | 17 | WWLLD |
| 16 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 12:18 | -6 | 16 | LLLWL |
| 17 | Sport Huancayo | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 21:31 | -10 | 16 | WLLWD |
| 18 | Juan Pablo II College | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 22:40 | -18 | 16 | LLDDL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 30:8 | 40 |
| 2 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 17 | 25:21 | 34 |
| 3 | Cienciano | 17 | 34:22 | 33 |
| 4 | Universitario | 17 | 24:15 | 29 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 29:20 | 28 |
| 6 | Cusco | 17 | 21:24 | 27 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 21:18 | 26 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 20:18 | 21 |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 18:20 | 21 |
| 10 | ADT | 17 | 22:21 | 20 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 17 | 15:19 | 20 |
| 12 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 28:30 | 19 |
| 13 | UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 21:26 | 18 |
| 14 | UCV Moquegua | 17 | 17:24 | 18 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 17 | 23:28 | 17 |
| 16 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 12:18 | 16 |
| 17 | Sport Huancayo | 17 | 21:31 | 16 |
| 18 | Juan Pablo II College | 17 | 22:40 | 16 |
Primera Division: Clausura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sport Huancayo | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 23:17 | +6 | 28 | WLLWD |
| 2 | Universitario | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 28:19 | +9 | 27 | WLWLW |
| 3 | Sporting Cristal | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 26:15 | +11 | 25 | DLLWL |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 26:15 | +11 | 25 | WWWLL |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 24:14 | +10 | 25 | WLWWL |
| 6 | Juan Pablo II College | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 25:16 | +9 | 25 | LLDDL |
| 7 | Alianza Lima | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 20:12 | +8 | 25 | WWWWL |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 28:28 | 0 | 25 | LWWLL |
| 9 | Cusco | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 25:19 | +6 | 24 | DDWWL |
| 10 | Sport Boys | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 19:14 | +5 | 21 | LDWLL |
| 11 | Atletico Grau | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 16:20 | -4 | 18 | LLLWL |
| 12 | Cienciano | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 19:21 | -2 | 17 | WWDLW |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 23:24 | -1 | 13 | LWWDD |
| 14 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14:30 | -16 | 12 | DLLWW |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 21:32 | -11 | 11 | WWLLD |
| 16 | ADT | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 11:24 | -13 | 10 | DWWDL |
| 17 | UCV Moquegua | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 8:22 | -14 | 10 | DLWLW |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 15:29 | -14 | 5 | LLDLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sport Huancayo | 14 | 23:17 | 28 |
| 2 | Universitario | 13 | 28:19 | 27 |
| 3 | Sporting Cristal | 13 | 26:15 | 25 |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 14 | 26:15 | 25 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 13 | 24:14 | 25 |
| 6 | Juan Pablo II College | 14 | 25:16 | 25 |
| 7 | Alianza Lima | 13 | 20:12 | 25 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 14 | 28:28 | 25 |
| 9 | Cusco | 14 | 25:19 | 24 |
| 10 | Sport Boys | 13 | 19:14 | 21 |
| 11 | Atletico Grau | 14 | 16:20 | 18 |
| 12 | Cienciano | 14 | 19:21 | 17 |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 13 | 23:24 | 13 |
| 14 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 14 | 14:30 | 12 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 14 | 21:32 | 11 |
| 16 | ADT | 14 | 11:24 | 10 |
| 17 | UCV Moquegua | 14 | 8:22 | 10 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 14 | 15:29 | 5 |
PromotionRelegation
Explore more predictions
This match
More Primera División matches
- Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau 18/10/26
- Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos 18/10/26
- FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua 18/10/26
- Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca 19/10/26
- Atletico Grau vs ADT 23/10/26
- Sport Huancayo vs Alianza Atletico 24/10/26
- Cusco vs Sporting Cristal 24/10/26
- Universitario vs Juan Pablo II College 25/10/26
About the UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar forecast
The forecasts for this Primera División match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
UTC Cajamarca and FBC Melgar in the Primera División table
The table shows a wide gap: FBC Melgar are 3rd in the Primera División, while UTC Cajamarca sit 18th, 35 points behind. League goal record so far: UTC Cajamarca 36-55, FBC Melgar 53-34. The full standings are on the Primera División Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.