America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC Prediction

Serie BBrazil Brazil · Regular Season - 32
America Mineiro
0-1
Finished
HT 0-1
Fortaleza EC
Arena Independência, Bello Harisanta·Rafael Rodrigo Klein 08/10/2026
America MineiroAmerica Mineiro
0-1
Finished
Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
74%Trust
Double Chance
Draw or Away Win
1.22
SignalGOODModel48%SurpriseMediumGap-7.9%
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.65
SignalGOODModel67%SurpriseMediumGap+7.3%
America Mineiro Rest
4 days
Fortaleza EC Rest
4 days

America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC: the result in context

Fortaleza EC beat America Mineiro 1-0 in the Serie B on 8 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Fortaleza EC have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 9 previous meetings, which averaged 3.2 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
23%3.92
X
28%3.38
2
49%1.91
Double Chance
1X
51%1.85
X2
77%1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.84
No
49%1.85
Goals
Projected Goals: 0.93 + 1.65 = 2.58
Over 1.5
73%1.33
Over 2.5
47%2.05
Over 3.5
27%3.50
Under 1.5
27%3.10
Under 2.5
53%1.75
Under 3.5
73%1.25
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.7 + 5.7 = 10.4
Over 8.5
70%1.32
Over 9.5
58%1.60
Over 10.5
47%2.00
Under 8.5
30%2.93
Under 9.5
42%2.19
Under 10.5
53%1.75
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 2 = 4.3
Over 3.5
62%1.65
Over 4.5
43%1.80
Under 3.5
38%2.15
Under 4.5
57%1.91

Match Events

3'Lucas Sasha
9'Fábio das Neves Gerônimo de Almeida INFilipe Pereira Dahora out
22'PierreFoul
41'Rafael Raul BarcelosFoul
45'Guilherme Parede INLuidy Montes Carneiro out
45+1'Otavio GoncalvesFoul
48'Lucas Xavier GazalFoul
57'Rodrigo Henrique Santos De Souza INLucas Crispim out
58'Vitor Ferreira INRodrigo Oliveira dos Santos out
70'Otavio Goncalves INFelipe out
71'Luiz Fernando INJuan Camilo Cantillo out
71'Nathan Fogaça INPedro Henrique out
85'Matías Segovia INMarcelo Enrique Maçola Filho out
85'Paulo Victor·Ferreira de Jesus INJulio César Leme Do Nascimento out
87'Maurício Mucuri INKaio Henrique out
89'Luidy Montes CarneiroFoul

Lineups

America Mineiro
4-2-3-1Coach: Douglas Leite
Fortaleza EC
4-3-3Coach: Paulo Autuori
Avg rating6.41
Avg rating6.80
William6.519William
Fábio Almeida5.931F. Almeida
Rafael Barcelos6.64R. Barcelos
L. Sosa7.13L. Sosa
T. Ostchega6.325T. Ostchega
Barreto6.588Barreto
5555O. Goncalves
Paulo Victor6.420P. Victor
M. Segovia6.677M. Segovia
Guilherme Parede6.07G. Parede
Willian6.39Willian
João Ricardo7.11J. Ricardo
Maílton6.622Maílton
Lucas Gazal6.23L. Gazal
T. Cardona7.06T. Cardona
Maurício Júnior Lima Rodrigues6.913M. Júnior Lima Rodrigues
Lucas Sasha8.188L. Sasha
Pierre7.25Pierre
Rodriguinho6.575Rodriguinho
Vitinho6.711Vitinho
Nathan Fogaça6.317N. Fogaça
Luiz Fernando6.732L. Fernando

America Mineiro Substitutes

27Cássio
45Ricardo Silva
26Manoel
93J. Jiménez
8Felipe Amaral70'replaced by Otavio Goncalves6.9
71Cristian Do Espirito Santo Rodrigues
32Filipe9'for Fábio das Neves Gerônimo de Almeida6.1
30L. Montes45'for Guilherme Parede89'6.1
99Marcelo Macola85'for Matías Segovia6.8
37Cesar Leme Do Nascimento Julio85'for Paulo Victor·Ferreira de Jesus6.2

Fortaleza EC Substitutes

10Lucas Crispim57'for Rodrigo Henrique Santos De Souza6.8
9J. Miritello
23Neris
28Paulinho
16Pedro Henrique71'for Nathan Fogaça6.3
29Rodrigo58'for Vitor Ferreira7.0
8Ronald
37Ryan Gustavo
25Vinícius Silvestre
21J. Cantillo71'for Luiz Fernando7.0
31Welliton
12Kaio Henrique87'for Maurício Mucuri6.4

Match Stats

America MineiroFortaleza EC
52%Ball Possession48%
3Corner Kicks5
4Yellow Cards2
8Total Shots13
1Shots on Goal3
4Shots off Goal5
2Shots Inside Box9
6Shots Outside Box4
3Blocked Shots5
22Fouls11
1Offsides0
1Goalkeeper Saves1
508Total Passes474
435Passes Accurate421
11Free Kicks22

Team Comparison

America MineiroAmerica Mineiro
Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC
1466Elo Rating 1704
0.50Attack 1.69
2.36Defense 1.93
50%Hit Rate 39%
10.9Shots per Game 14.0
2.9Shots on Target 4.3
4.4Corners per Game 6.1
2.7Cards per Game 2.0

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend67% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

America MineiroAmerica Mineiro
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.5 vs 0 in first half)
Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.2 vs 0.5 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 9 meetings, all competitions

America MineiroAmerica Mineiro3Wins · 33%
Draws00%
Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC6Wins · 67%
3.2Avg Goals
67%Both teams scored6 of 9
89%3+ goals8 of 9

Previous meetings

Serie B17/06/2026
Fortaleza ECAmerica Mineiro
03
Serie A08/10/2023
Fortaleza ECAmerica Mineiro
32
CONMEBOL Sudamericana01/09/2023
Fortaleza ECAmerica Mineiro
21
CONMEBOL Sudamericana25/08/2023
America MineiroFortaleza EC
13
Serie A20/05/2023
America MineiroFortaleza EC
21
Serie A16/10/2022
America MineiroFortaleza EC
12
Serie A19/06/2022
Fortaleza ECAmerica Mineiro
10
Serie A31/10/2021
America MineiroFortaleza EC
21
Serie A07/07/2021
Fortaleza ECAmerica Mineiro
40

Recent Form

America MineiroAmerica Mineiro
2W0D8L
03/10/2026
Atletico GoianienseAmerica Mineiro
20
L29/09/2026
America MineiroJuventude
01
L19/09/2026
Vila NovaAmerica Mineiro
10
L15/09/2026
America MineiroSão Bernardo
02
L10/09/2026
America MineiroNautico Recife
21
W
05/09/2026
CRBAmerica Mineiro
31
L
30/08/2026
America MineiroPonte Preta
20
W
25/08/2026
Sport RecifeAmerica Mineiro
30
L21/08/2026
NovorizontinoAmerica Mineiro
30
L16/08/2026
America MineiroAthletic Club
13
L
Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC
4W6D0L
03/10/2026
Fortaleza ECNautico Recife
11
D27/09/2026
Fortaleza ECAthletic Club
22
D20/09/2026
LondrinaFortaleza EC
12
W13/09/2026
Fortaleza ECCeara
11
D10/09/2026
Fortaleza ECAvai
10
W
05/09/2026
GoiasFortaleza EC
01
W
01/09/2026
Fortaleza ECOperario-PR
11
D
23/08/2026
CriciumaFortaleza EC
02
W
20/08/2026
Fortaleza ECSão Bernardo
11
D15/08/2026
JuventudeFortaleza EC
00
D

Referee Profile

Rafael Rodrigo Klein203 matches

5.46Cards per match
5.13Yellow cards per match
0.33Red cards per match
28.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Rafael Rodrigo Klein5.46
Other referees5.23

5.46 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.23).

Cards come from 138 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie B 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1NovorizontinoNovorizontino361910764:31+3367WWDWW
2JuventudeJuventude361811747:25+2265DWDDW
3Vila NovaVila Nova36189952:38+1463DLDWD
4CriciumaCriciuma361881038:30+862WLWWL
5Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC361614643:31+1262DDWDW
6CRBCRB361671354:51+355LWLDW
7GoiasGoias361671338:41-355WWDWW
8Sport RecifeSport Recife361413948:39+955DWLDW
9Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense361413942:33+955DLDDL
10São BernardoSão Bernardo3614101251:40+1152WWLDL
11Operario-PROperario-PR361491346:48-251LWLLL
12Botafogo SPBotafogo SP361391441:39+248DWWWW
13CuiabaCuiaba3611141133:30+347LLLLD
14Athletic ClubAthletic Club3611141142:41+147WLDDL
15Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3612101440:46-646WLDLL
16CearaCeara3611101538:46-843LLDLW
17AvaiAvai361071933:46-1337LLDWW
18LondrinaLondrina36882045:54-932LLWDL
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro36752426:55-2926WWWLL
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta36362721:78-5715LDDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1NovorizontinoNovorizontino3664:3167
2JuventudeJuventude3647:2565
3Vila NovaVila Nova3652:3863
4CriciumaCriciuma3638:3062
5Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC3643:3162
6CRBCRB3654:5155
7GoiasGoias3638:4155
8Sport RecifeSport Recife3648:3955
9Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense3642:3355
10São BernardoSão Bernardo3651:4052
11Operario-PROperario-PR3646:4851
12Botafogo SPBotafogo SP3641:3948
13CuiabaCuiaba3633:3047
14Athletic ClubAthletic Club3642:4147
15Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3640:4646
16CearaCeara3638:4643
17AvaiAvai3633:4637
18LondrinaLondrina3645:5432
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro3626:5526
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta3621:7815
PromotionRelegation

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About the America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC forecast

The forecasts for this Serie B match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

America Mineiro and Fortaleza EC in the Serie B table

In the Serie B table, Fortaleza EC are 5th and America Mineiro 19th, 36 points apart. League goal record so far: America Mineiro 26-55, Fortaleza EC 43-31. The full standings are on the Serie B Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Fortaleza EC have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.