Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC Prediction

Cuiaba
1-1
Finished
HT 1-0
Fortaleza EC
Arena Pantanal, Cuiabá·Lucas Paulo Torezin, Brazil 09/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.58
SignalGOODModel36%SurpriseMediumGap+8.2%
Cuiaba Rest
12 days
Fortaleza EC Rest
3 days

Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC: the result in context

Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC drew 1-1 in the Serie B on 9 Aug 2026. Fortaleza EC had gone in with the better form, having won 3 of their previous five against 1 for Cuiaba.

Their history points to a close game: 9 previous meetings produced 1.4 goals a game. Referee Lucas Paulo Torezin averages 5.73 cards a game, 0.51 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
41%2.37
X
30%2.89
2
29%3.25
Double Chance
1X
71%1.30
X2
59%1.53
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%2.20
No
48%1.60
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.31 + 0.88 = 2.19
Over 1.5
67%1.58
Over 2.5
43%2.75
Over 3.5
13%5.25
Under 1.5
33%2.29
Under 2.5
57%1.40
Under 3.5
87%1.12
Corners
Projected Corners: 6 + 4.4 = 10.4
Over 8.5
65%1.41
Over 9.5
57%1.71
Over 10.5
47%2.10
Under 8.5
35%2.60
Under 9.5
43%2.02
Under 10.5
53%1.66
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 2.4 = 4.7
Over 3.5
66%-
Over 4.5
47%1.47
Under 3.5
34%-
Under 4.5
53%2.44

Match Events

9'Jean DiasAssist: Eliel
17'PierreFoul
39'H. PedroFoul
42'Luiz FernandoFoul
44'PepeDelay of game
46'Luiz Fernando INPaulo Baya out
46'Vitinho INRodrigo out
46'Eliel INKauan Cristtyan out
54'Mailton(Penalty)
63'J. B. MiritelloUnsportsmanlike conduct
65'G. Fuentes INMauricio Junior out
65'Lucas Sasha INT. Cardona out
70'Pepe INVinicius Peixoto out
84'Jean Dias INMarcos Junior out
84'Calebe Costa INLuiz Otavio out
87'Rodriguinho INRyan out
89'Igor Inocencio INRodrigo Rodrigues out

Lineups

Cuiaba
3-3-1-3Coach: Eduardo Barros
Fortaleza EC
4-2-3-1Coach: Paulo Autuori
Avg rating6.87
Avg rating6.49
Marcelo Carné6.531M. Carné
João Basso7.213J. Basso
Calebe Costa6.25C. Costa
Vitor Mendes6.94V. Mendes
Igor Inocencio6.92I. Inocencio
RaulC6.930Raul
Lorenzo7.736Lorenzo
Pepê6.68Pepê
Eliel6.911Eliel
Pedro Henrique6.096P. Henrique
Jean Dias8.777J. Dias
João RicardoC6.21J. Ricardo
Maílton7.322Maílton
Neris6.623Neris
Lucas Gazal6.53L. Gazal
Gabriel Fuentes6.718G. Fuentes
Lucas Sasha6.388L. Sasha
Pierre6.95Pierre
Vitinho6.711Vitinho
Rodriguinho6.775Rodriguinho
Luiz Fernando6.032L. Fernando
Juan Miritello5.99J. Miritello

Cuiaba Substitutes

41Kauan Cristtyan46'for Eliel7.2
29Vinicius Peixoto70'for Pepe6.5
1João Carlos
91Luisão
6Marlon Lopes
70Wesley
97Luiz Otavio84'replaced by Calebe Costa6.6
26João Vitor
37Railan
27Rodrigo Rodrigues89'for Igor Inocencio
39Gui Mansano
23Marcos Júnior84'for Jean Dias6.3

Fortaleza EC Substitutes

77Paulo Baya46'for Luiz Fernando6.2
29Rodrigo Santos46'for Vitinho6.7
6Tomás Cardona65'for Lucas Sasha6.3
13Maurício Lima6.6
25Vinicius Silvestre
4Luan Freitas
28Paulinho
10Lucas Crispim
37Ryan Gustavo87'for Rodriguinho6.3
31Welliton
17Nathan Fogaça
19Lucas Emanoel

Match Stats

CuiabaFortaleza EC
57%Ball Possession43%
3Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
16Total Shots5
3Shots on Goal1
11Shots off Goal1
10Shots Inside Box2
6Shots Outside Box3
2Blocked Shots3
11Fouls10
0Offsides2
1Goalkeeper Saves2
467Total Passes379
408Passes Accurate319
87%Pass Accuracy84%

Team Comparison

CuiabaCuiaba
Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC
1612Elo Rating 1713
0.33Attack 1.64
2.08Defense 2.09
17%Hit Rate 46%
18.0Shots per Game 11.5
5.0Shots on Target 3.5
8.1Corners per Game 5.0
1.8Cards per Game 2.1

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

CuiabaCuiaba
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.2 vs 0.4 in second half)

Head to Head

Last 9 meetings, all competitions

CuiabaCuiaba5Wins · 56%
Draws222%
Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC2Wins · 22%
1.4Avg Goals
11%Both teams scored1 of 9
22%3+ goals2 of 9

Previous meetings

Serie B01/04/2026
Fortaleza ECCuiaba
00
Serie A29/09/2024
Fortaleza ECCuiaba
10
Serie A16/06/2024
CuiabaFortaleza EC
50
Serie A12/11/2023
CuiabaFortaleza EC
21
Serie A16/07/2023
Fortaleza ECCuiaba
01
Serie A31/07/2022
CuiabaFortaleza EC
01
Serie A10/04/2022
Fortaleza ECCuiaba
01
Serie A07/12/2021
CuiabaFortaleza EC
10
Serie A31/08/2021
Fortaleza ECCuiaba
00

Referee Profile

Lucas Paulo Torezin128 matches

5.73Cards per match
5.36Yellow cards per match
0.37Red cards per match
27.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Lucas Paulo Torezin5.73
Other referees5.22

5.73 cards a match, 0.51 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.22).

Cards come from 75 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie B 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1NovorizontinoNovorizontino351810762:30+3264WDWWW
2JuventudeJuventude351810745:23+2264WDDWW
3Vila NovaVila Nova35188950:36+1462LDWDW
4Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC351613643:31+1261DWDWD
5CriciumaCriciuma351781036:30+659LWWLW
6CRBCRB351671253:49+455WLDWL
7Sport RecifeSport Recife351412947:38+954WLDWW
8Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense351412942:33+954LDDLW
9GoiasGoias351571336:40-452WDWWL
10Operario-PROperario-PR351491245:46-151WLLLL
11São BernardoSão Bernardo3513101249:39+1049WLDLW
12Botafogo SPBotafogo SP351381440:38+247WWWWL
13CuiabaCuiaba3511141032:28+447LLLDW
14Athletic ClubAthletic Club3510141140:40044LDDLL
15Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3511101439:46-743LDLLD
16CearaCeara3511101437:44-743LDLWW
17AvaiAvai351071833:45-1237LDWWL
18LondrinaLondrina35881944:51-732LWDLL
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro35652423:54-3123WWLLL
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta35362621:76-5515DDLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1NovorizontinoNovorizontino3562:3064
2JuventudeJuventude3545:2364
3Vila NovaVila Nova3550:3662
4Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC3543:3161
5CriciumaCriciuma3536:3059
6CRBCRB3553:4955
7Sport RecifeSport Recife3547:3854
8Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense3542:3354
9GoiasGoias3536:4052
10Operario-PROperario-PR3545:4651
11São BernardoSão Bernardo3549:3949
12Botafogo SPBotafogo SP3540:3847
13CuiabaCuiaba3532:2847
14Athletic ClubAthletic Club3540:4044
15Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3539:4643
16CearaCeara3537:4443
17AvaiAvai3533:4537
18LondrinaLondrina3544:5132
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro3523:5423
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta3521:7615
PromotionRelegation

About the Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC forecast

The forecasts for this Serie B match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC in the Serie B table

In the Serie B table, Fortaleza EC are 4th and Cuiaba 13th, 14 points apart. League goal record so far: Cuiaba 32-28, Fortaleza EC 43-31. The full standings are on the Serie B Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Fortaleza EC have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.