Estoril vs Moreirense Prediction

Estoril
1-3
Finished
HT 0-3
Moreirense
Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Cascais·Carlos Macedo 25/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
75%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.21
SignalGOODModel47%SurpriseMediumGap-7.7%
Estoril Rest
7 days
Moreirense Rest
8 days

Estoril vs Moreirense: result, form and history

Moreirense beat Estoril 3-1 in the Primeira Liga on 25 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 8 previous meetings averaged 3.0 goals, and both sides scored in 5 of them. Referee Carlos Macedo averages 4.51 cards a game, 1.00 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
49%1.83
X
27%3.63
2
24%4.24
Double Chance
1X
76%1.21
X2
51%1.94
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.80
No
47%1.91
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.31 + 1.23 = 2.54
Over 1.5
74%1.29
Over 2.5
50%1.93
Over 3.5
29%3.30
Under 1.5
26%3.40
Under 2.5
50%1.85
Under 3.5
71%1.33
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.5 + 3.8 = 9.3
Over 8.5
57%1.68
Over 9.5
45%2.05
Over 10.5
34%2.69
Under 8.5
43%2.12
Under 9.5
55%1.67
Under 10.5
66%1.36
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 2.3 = 4.6
Over 3.5
67%1.42
Over 4.5
48%1.82
Under 3.5
33%2.77
Under 4.5
52%1.93

Match Events

12'Manuel Mendonça
15'Tiago Andrade
23'Nail OmerovicFoul
27'Antef TsounguiFoul
28'Nile John
45'Nail Omerovic INAndré Lacximicant out
45'Ricard Sanchez Sendra INPedro Carvalho out
58'João Carvalho INAndré Tiago Ramos das Neves out
58'Axel Camblan INFernando Medrano out
59'Manuel Mendonça INRodrigo Alonso out
69'Nile John INLanderson Costa Araújo out
69'Antef Tsoungui INMiguel Angelo Da Silva Rocha out
69'Kiko Bondoso INMateja Stjepanović out
80'Tiago Andrade INÁlvaro Martínez out
81'Leonardo Vonić INYan Maranhão out
90'Gilberto BatistaFoul
90+2'André LacximicantFoul
90+4'André Tiago Ramos das Neves

Lineups

Estoril
4-3-3Coach: Leandro Pires
Moreirense
4-2-3-1Coach: Vasco Costa
Avg rating6.29
Avg rating7.21
Joel Robles5.61J. Robles
Ricard Sánchez6.02R. Sánchez
Ferro7.34Ferro
Xavi Sintes6.56X. Sintes
R. Jurišić6.321R. Jurišić
A. Tsoungui6.15A. Tsoungui
J. Holsgrove6.710J. Holsgrove
João Carvalho5.812J. Carvalho
R. Guitane6.499R. Guitane
A. Camblan6.49A. Camblan
N. Omerović6.611N. Omerović
André Ferreira7.913A. Ferreira
Dinis Pinto7.776D. Pinto
Gilberto Batista7.066G. Batista
Kevyn Monteiro7.54K. Monteiro
Kiko7.027Kiko
N. John8.223N. John
Guilherme Liberato7.165G. Liberato
Kiko Bondoso6.910K. Bondoso
Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça7.87M. Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
Tiago Andrade8.219T. Andrade
L. Vonić6.479L. Vonić

Estoril Substitutes

35S. Amissah
8Xeka69'for Antef Tsoungui5.9
25S. Andreou
22Pedro Carvalho45'for Ricard Sanchez Sendra6.0
7André Lacximicant45'for Nail Omerovic90+2'6.3
3Fernando Medrano58'for Axel Camblan6.1
19Tiago Parreira Parente
17Peixinho58'for João Carvalho90+4'6.8
44M. Robin
15Isma Sierra
16M. Turk
42J. Arnolin

Moreirense Substitutes

1Aranha
99Maranhão81'for Leonardo Vonić6.4
8M. Stjepanović69'for Kiko Bondoso6.9
28Chipyoka Songa
2Leandro Henrique Sousa Santos
21Rodri Alonso59'for Manuel Mendonça7.2
17Álvaro Martínez80'for Tiago Andrade6.8
11Landerson69'for Nile John6.6
25Afonso Assis
32José
12Francisco Barbosa Sampaio

Match Stats

EstorilMoreirense
57%Ball Possession43%
6Corner Kicks3
3Yellow Cards1
26Total Shots13
7Shots on Goal4
15Shots off Goal7
20Shots Inside Box8
6Shots Outside Box5
4Blocked Shots2
17Fouls13
1Offsides2
1Goalkeeper Saves6
478Total Passes367
392Passes Accurate290
82%Pass Accuracy79%

Team Comparison

EstorilEstoril
MoreirenseMoreirense
1537Elo Rating 1567
0.69Attack 0.69
1.72Defense 1.58
0%Hit Rate 17%
14.6Shots per Game 9.7
6.2Shots on Target 2.8
5.4Corners per Game 2.5
3.0Cards per Game 1.9

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend63% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

EstorilEstoril
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
MoreirenseMoreirense
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 8 meetings, all competitions

EstorilEstoril1Wins · 13%
Draws337%
MoreirenseMoreirense4Wins · 50%
3.0Avg Goals
63%Both teams scored5 of 8
63%3+ goals5 of 8

Previous meetings

Primeira Liga20/04/2026
MoreirenseEstoril
10
Primeira Liga07/12/2025
EstorilMoreirense
33
Primeira Liga11/05/2025
MoreirenseEstoril
22
Primeira Liga28/12/2024
EstorilMoreirense
22
Primeira Liga18/05/2024
MoreirenseEstoril
21
Primeira Liga13/01/2024
EstorilMoreirense
13
Primeira Liga07/05/2022
EstorilMoreirense
10
Primeira Liga28/12/2021
MoreirenseEstoril
10

Referee Profile

Carlos Macedo127 matches

4.51Cards per match
4.33Yellow cards per match
0.18Red cards per match
29.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Carlos Macedo4.51
Other referees5.51

4.51 cards a match, 1.00 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.51).

Cards come from 78 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Primeira Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FC PortoFC Porto990021:4+1727WWWWW
2BenficaBenfica971126:8+1822WWLWW
3Sporting CPSporting CP953121:11+1018LWDDW
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara953113:6+718LWDWW
5AroucaArouca952212:7+517WWDLD
6Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu952213:11+217WWWWW
7GIL VicenteGIL Vicente94238:7+114LWWDL
8AlvercaAlverca932413:13011LWWWL
9SC BragaSC Braga93249:11-211LLLDW
10MoreirenseMoreirense932411:16-511WLDWL
11FamalicaoFamalicao924314:11+310WLWDD
12EstrelaEstrela924314:17-310LLLDW
13Vitória SCVitória SC922510:1008WLDLD
14MaritimoMaritimo92259:19-108LLDLL
15NacionalNacional921610:18-87WLLLL
16Casa PiaCasa Pia92165:17-127WLWLD
17Rio AveRio Ave92168:21-137LWLDL
18EstorilEstoril90275:15-102LLLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1FC PortoFC Porto921:427
2BenficaBenfica926:822
3Sporting CPSporting CP921:1118
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara913:618
5AroucaArouca912:717
6Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu913:1117
7GIL VicenteGIL Vicente98:714
8AlvercaAlverca913:1311
9SC BragaSC Braga99:1111
10MoreirenseMoreirense911:1611
11FamalicaoFamalicao914:1110
12EstrelaEstrela914:1710
13Vitória SCVitória SC910:108
14MaritimoMaritimo99:198
15NacionalNacional910:187
16Casa PiaCasa Pia95:177
17Rio AveRio Ave98:217
18EstorilEstoril95:152
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Estoril vs Moreirense forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Estoril and Moreirense in the Primeira Liga table

In the Primeira Liga table, Moreirense are 10th and Estoril 18th, 9 points apart. League goal record so far: Estoril 5-15, Moreirense 11-16. The full standings are on the Primeira Liga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.