Vitória SC vs Maritimo Prediction

Vitória SC
5-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Maritimo
Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, Guimarães·Diogo Rosa 23/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
59%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.51
SignalNEUTRALModel57%SurpriseMediumGap-7.0%
Vitória SC Rest
6 days
Maritimo Rest
5 days

Vitória SC vs Maritimo: the result in context

Vitória SC beat Maritimo 5-0 in the Primeira Liga on 23 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Vitória SC have had the better of this fixture, winning 5 of the 6 previous meetings, which averaged 1.5 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
58%1.51
X
25%4.13
2
17%6.46
Double Chance
1X
83%1.11
X2
42%2.50
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.90
No
49%1.80
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.68 + 0.99 = 2.67
Over 1.5
75%1.25
Over 2.5
52%1.83
Over 3.5
30%3.00
Under 1.5
25%3.70
Under 2.5
48%1.94
Under 3.5
70%1.34
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.8 + 4 = 9.8
Over 8.5
62%1.76
Over 9.5
50%2.19
Over 10.5
39%2.92
Under 8.5
38%1.98
Under 9.5
50%1.58
Under 10.5
61%1.31
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.2 + 2.4 = 4.6
Over 3.5
68%1.39
Over 4.5
49%1.78
Under 3.5
32%2.82
Under 4.5
51%1.95

Match Events

12'Gustavo SilvaFoul
17'Gonçalo NogueiraFoul
22'Toni BorevkovićDissent
36'Raphael GuzzoDissent
36'Tomas TavaresFoul
38'Arnel Jakupović
45'Tomas Tavares INSimo Bouzaidi out
48'Paulo HenriqueOG
60'Oumar Camara
62'Rodri AndradeFoul
63'Fábio Samuel Amorim SilvaFoul
66'Gustavo Silva INVictor Andersson out
66'Gonçalo Nogueira INLohann Doucet out
69'Raphael Guzzo INIbrahim Akitunde Alani out
69'Maxime Dominguez INNilton Varela out
76'Arnel JakupovićAssist: Fábio Samuel Amorim Silva
78'Fábio Samuel Amorim Silva INAlan de Souza Guimarães out
78'Ahmed Sidibé INYeimar Mosquera out
78'Arnel Jakupović INAlioune Ndoye out
80'Martín Tejón INMons Rogeani Bassouamina out
86'Adrián Butzke INMaurice Boakye out
90'Yeimar MosqueraAssist: Alan de Souza Guimarães

Lineups

Vitória SC
4-2-3-1Coach: Tiago Margarido
Maritimo
4-2-3-1Coach: M. van der Gaag
Avg rating7.21
Avg rating5.89
Lucas Furtado6.898L. Furtado
T. Strata7.523T. Strata
T. Borevković7.321T. Borevković
A. Sidibé7.65A. Sidibé
João Mendes7.213J. Mendes
Gonçalo Nogueira6.48G. Nogueira
Beni7.216Beni
O. Camara8.27O. Camara
Samu7.720Samu
Gustavo6.511Gustavo
A. Jakupovic8.69A. Jakupovic
Fran Vieites5.830F. Vieites
Igor Julião5.62I. Julião
Romain Correia6.244R. Correia
G. Szalai6.022G. Szalai
Paulo Henrique4.423P. Henrique
Rodrigo Andrade5.56R. Andrade
Raphael Guzzo6.314R. Guzzo
Tomás Tavares5.715T. Tavares
M. Dominguez6.18M. Dominguez
Martín Tejón5.810M. Tejón
Adrián Butzke6.317A. Butzke

Vitória SC Substitutes

10Alan78'for Fábio Samuel Amorim Silva6.9
48O. Zych
4Óscar Rivas
29V. Ouotro
24A. Ndoye78'for Arnel Jakupović6.5
15Y. Mosquera78'for Ahmed Sidibé90'7.8
19V. Andersson66'for Gustavo Silva6.9
44L. Doucet66'for Gonçalo Nogueira6.3
2Miguel Maga
6M. Mitrović
17Miguel Nogueira
40Mohammed Kebdani

Maritimo Substitutes

21I. Alani69'for Raphael Guzzo6.0
1Gonçalo Tabuaço
27S. Bamba
12M. Bassouamina80'for Martín Tejón6.7
11M. Diouri45'for Tomas Tavares6.4
4Rafael Fernandes
35B. Limbombe
5Nilton Varela69'for Maxime Dominguez5.4
3N. Ogbeta
13Alfonso Pastor
90Maurice Osei Boakye86'for Adrián Butzke5.9
66I. Ayuma

Match Stats

Vitória SCMaritimo
58%Ball Possession42%
6Corner Kicks5
4Yellow Cards3
16Total Shots10
8Shots on Goal2
4Shots off Goal6
10Shots Inside Box4
6Shots Outside Box6
4Blocked Shots2
15Fouls11
1Offsides6
2Goalkeeper Saves3
443Total Passes324
355Passes Accurate243
11Free Kicks15

Team Comparison

Vitória SCVitória SC
MaritimoMaritimo
1608Elo Rating 1563
1.88Attack 0.96
2.16Defense 0.45
50%Hit Rate 23%
15.1Shots per Game 9.1
5.2Shots on Target 2.7
5.7Corners per Game 3.8
3.4Cards per Game 2.1

Game State Tendencies

Vitória SCVitória SC
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.6 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
MaritimoMaritimo
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 6 meetings, all competitions

Vitória SCVitória SC5Wins · 83%
Draws117%
MaritimoMaritimo0Wins · 0%
1.5Avg Goals
33%Both teams scored2 of 6
33%3+ goals2 of 6

Previous meetings

Primeira Liga29/04/2023
MaritimoGuimaraes
12
Primeira Liga13/11/2022
GuimaraesMaritimo
10
Primeira Liga13/03/2022
MaritimoGuimaraes
01
Primeira Liga22/10/2021
GuimaraesMaritimo
21
Primeira Liga16/05/2021
MaritimoGuimaraes
00
Primeira Liga31/01/2021
GuimaraesMaritimo
10

Referee Profile

Diogo Rosa69 matches

5.64Cards per match
5.46Yellow cards per match
0.18Red cards per match
28.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Diogo Rosa5.64
Other referees5.20

5.64 cards a match, 0.44 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.20).

Cards come from 28 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Primeira Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FC PortoFC Porto990021:4+1727WWWWW
2BenficaBenfica971126:8+1822WWLWW
3Sporting CPSporting CP953121:11+1018LWDDW
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara953113:6+718LWDWW
5AroucaArouca952212:7+517WWDLD
6Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu952213:11+217WWWWW
7GIL VicenteGIL Vicente94238:7+114LWWDL
8AlvercaAlverca932413:13011LWWWL
9SC BragaSC Braga93249:11-211LLLDW
10MoreirenseMoreirense932411:16-511WLDWL
11FamalicaoFamalicao924314:11+310WLWDD
12EstrelaEstrela924314:17-310LLLDW
13Vitória SCVitória SC922510:1008WLDLD
14MaritimoMaritimo92259:19-108LLDLL
15NacionalNacional921610:18-87WLLLL
16Casa PiaCasa Pia92165:17-127WLWLD
17Rio AveRio Ave92168:21-137LWLDL
18EstorilEstoril90275:15-102LLLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1FC PortoFC Porto921:427
2BenficaBenfica926:822
3Sporting CPSporting CP921:1118
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara913:618
5AroucaArouca912:717
6Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu913:1117
7GIL VicenteGIL Vicente98:714
8AlvercaAlverca913:1311
9SC BragaSC Braga99:1111
10MoreirenseMoreirense911:1611
11FamalicaoFamalicao914:1110
12EstrelaEstrela914:1710
13Vitória SCVitória SC910:108
14MaritimoMaritimo99:198
15NacionalNacional910:187
16Casa PiaCasa Pia95:177
17Rio AveRio Ave98:217
18EstorilEstoril95:152
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Vitória SC vs Maritimo forecast

The forecasts for this Primeira Liga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Vitória SC and Maritimo in the Primeira Liga table

In the Primeira Liga table, Vitória SC (13th) and Maritimo (14th) are level on 8 points. League goal record so far: Vitória SC 10-10, Maritimo 9-19. The full standings are on the Primeira Liga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.