Nacional vs SC Braga Prediction

Nacional
1-0
Finished
HT 1-0
SC Braga
Estádio da Madeira, Funchal·Jose Bessa 25/10/2026
NacionalNacional
1-0
Finished
SC BragaSC Braga

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
70%Trust
1X2
Away Win
1.50
SignalSOLIDModel75%SurpriseMediumGap+2.9%
Value Analysis
70%Trust
1X2
Away Win
1.50
SignalGOODModel70%SurpriseMediumGap+5.5%
Nacional Rest
8 days
SC Braga Rest
2 days

Nacional vs SC Braga: the result in context

Nacional beat SC Braga 1-0 in the Primeira Liga on 25 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

SC Braga have had the better of this fixture, winning 8 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 3.3 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
12%6.65
X
20%4.24
2
68%1.50
Double Chance
1X
32%2.50
X2
88%1.11
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%1.93
No
50%1.78
Goals
Projected Goals: 0.86 + 2 = 2.86
Over 1.5
76%1.26
Over 2.5
53%1.88
Over 3.5
31%3.25
Under 1.5
24%3.60
Under 2.5
47%1.94
Under 3.5
69%1.33
Corners
Projected Corners: 3.5 + 5.7 = 9.2
Over 8.5
56%1.55
Over 9.5
44%1.94
Over 10.5
33%2.44
Under 8.5
44%2.21
Under 9.5
56%1.78
Under 10.5
67%1.43
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 1.8 = 3.9
Over 3.5
55%1.35
Over 4.5
35%1.70
Under 3.5
45%3.05
Under 4.5
65%2.07

Match Events

19'Miguel BaezaAssist: Song Min-kyu
19'Goal confirmedMiguel Baeza
33'Chico GonçalvesFoul
45'Gabriel Silva INGabriel Martínez Aguilera out
45'Tommy Marqués INJoão Moutinho out
45'Jean-Baptiste Gorby INMario Dorgeles out
62'Jovan Milosevic INFra Navarro out
68'Markus Jensen INDeivison Souza Brito out
68'Song Min-kyu INMatchoi Djaló out
76'Bright Arrey Mbi INDenis Huseinbasic out
78'Chiheb Labidi INDanel Dongmo out
78'N. Kader INPablo Ruan out
79'Sergio BarciaFoul
86'Miguel Baeza INDaniel de Melo Araujo Junior out
86'Stavros GavrielFoul
90+4'Gustaf LagerbielkeFoul

Lineups

Nacional
5-4-1Coach: João Henriques
SC Braga
3-4-2-1Coach: Franclim Carvalho
Avg rating6.80
Avg rating6.54
Renato Bellucci6.81R. Bellucci
M. Jensen7.07M. Jensen
Francisco Gonçalves6.233F. Gonçalves
Matheus Dias7.46M. Dias
Zé Vitor6.738Z. Vitor
W. Kokolo6.721W. Kokolo
S. Gavriel6.611S. Gavriel
C. Labidi6.315C. Labidi
Miguel Baeza8.28M. Baeza
Song Min-Kyu7.312S. Min-Kyu
N. Kader6.229N. Kader
Bernardo Fontes7.031B. Fontes
G. Lagerbielke6.514G. Lagerbielke
Sergio Barcia6.622S. Barcia
B. Arrey-Mbi6.926B. Arrey-Mbi
Víctor Gómez6.82V. Gómez
J. Gorby6.629J. Gorby
Tomás Marqués6.616T. Marqués
Gabriel Silva6.711G. Silva
Pau Victor6.110P. Victor
Ricardo Horta6.821R. Horta
J. Milošević6.417J. Milošević

Nacional Substitutes

20Matchoi Djaló68'for Song Min-kyu7.0
31D. Dongmo78'for Chiheb Labidi6.8
14Ivanildo Fernandes
13João Gonçalves
5José Gomes
17F. Nava
9A. Obando
99Pablo Ruan78'for N. Kader6.5
26Joel da Silva
2Daniel Isai de la Cruz de la Cruz
10Daniel Júnior86'for Miguel Baeza6.4
88Deivison68'for Markus Jensen6.9

SC Braga Substitutes

20M. Dorgeles45'for Jean-Baptiste Gorby6.3
23D. Huseinbašić76'for Bright Arrey Mbi6.3
78João Carvalho
8João Moutinho45'for Tommy Marqués7.1
9Fran Navarro62'for Jovan Milosevic6.0
50Diego Rodrigues
34E. Tıknaz
7Diogo Travassos
6Vitor Carvalho
44A. Bajrami
37A. Barišić
77Gabri Martínez45'for Gabriel Silva6.2

Match Stats

NacionalSC Braga
29%Ball Possession71%
4Corner Kicks6
2Yellow Cards2
8Total Shots20
4Shots on Goal2
3Shots off Goal10
4Shots Inside Box12
4Shots Outside Box8
1Blocked Shots8
18Fouls12
2Offsides3
2Goalkeeper Saves3
227Total Passes541
134Passes Accurate476
59%Pass Accuracy88%

Team Comparison

NacionalNacional
SC BragaSC Braga
1490Elo Rating 1748
0.62Attack 0.93
0.49Defense 1.46
0%Hit Rate 27%
10.8Shots per Game 14.8
3.4Shots on Target 5.1
4.8Corners per Game 4.7
0.7Cards per Game 1.8

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.85 goals
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

NacionalNacional
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
SC BragaSC Braga
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.7 vs 0.3 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

NacionalNacional1Wins · 10%
Draws110%
SC BragaSC Braga8Wins · 80%
3.3Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
80%3+ goals8 of 10

Previous meetings

Primeira Liga28/02/2026
NacionalSC Braga
12
Taça de Portugal23/11/2025
SC BragaNacional
42
Primeira Liga28/09/2025
SC BragaNacional
01
Primeira Liga21/02/2025
SC BragaNacional
10
Primeira Liga20/09/2024
NacionalSC Braga
03
Taça da Liga22/12/2023
NacionalSC Braga
13
Taça de Portugal25/04/2023
SC BragaNacional
22
Taça de Portugal12/04/2023
NacionalSC Braga
05
Primeira Liga28/02/2021
NacionalSC Braga
12
Primeira Liga17/10/2020
SC BragaNacional
21

Referee Profile

Jose Bessa98 matches

5.48Cards per match
5.24Yellow cards per match
0.24Red cards per match
25.6Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Jose Bessa5.48
Other referees5.26

5.48 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.26).

Cards come from 50 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Primeira Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FC PortoFC Porto990021:4+1727WWWWW
2BenficaBenfica971126:8+1822WWLWW
3Sporting CPSporting CP953121:11+1018LWDDW
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara953113:6+718LWDWW
5AroucaArouca952212:7+517WWDLD
6Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu952213:11+217WWWWW
7GIL VicenteGIL Vicente94238:7+114LWWDL
8AlvercaAlverca932413:13011LWWWL
9SC BragaSC Braga93249:11-211LLLDW
10MoreirenseMoreirense932411:16-511WLDWL
11FamalicaoFamalicao924314:11+310WLWDD
12EstrelaEstrela924314:17-310LLLDW
13Vitória SCVitória SC922510:1008WLDLD
14MaritimoMaritimo92259:19-108LLDLL
15NacionalNacional921610:18-87WLLLL
16Casa PiaCasa Pia92165:17-127WLWLD
17Rio AveRio Ave92168:21-137LWLDL
18EstorilEstoril90275:15-102LLLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1FC PortoFC Porto921:427
2BenficaBenfica926:822
3Sporting CPSporting CP921:1118
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara913:618
5AroucaArouca912:717
6Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu913:1117
7GIL VicenteGIL Vicente98:714
8AlvercaAlverca913:1311
9SC BragaSC Braga99:1111
10MoreirenseMoreirense911:1611
11FamalicaoFamalicao914:1110
12EstrelaEstrela914:1710
13Vitória SCVitória SC910:108
14MaritimoMaritimo99:198
15NacionalNacional910:187
16Casa PiaCasa Pia95:177
17Rio AveRio Ave98:217
18EstorilEstoril95:152
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Nacional vs SC Braga forecast

The forecasts for this Primeira Liga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Nacional and SC Braga in the Primeira Liga table

In the Primeira Liga table, SC Braga are 9th and Nacional 15th, 4 points apart. League goal record so far: Nacional 10-18, SC Braga 9-11. The full standings are on the Primeira Liga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

SC Braga have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.