Leon vs FC Juarez Prediction

Leon
2-1
Finished
HT 0-0
FC Juarez
Estadio León, Leon·Yonatan Peinado Aguirre 28/09/2026
LeonLeon
2-1
Finished
FC JuarezFC Juarez

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
78%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.20
SignalHIGHModel65%SurpriseMediumGap-5.1%
Leon Rest
6 days
FC Juarez Rest
8 days

Leon vs FC Juarez: the result in context

Leon beat FC Juarez 2-1 in the Liga MX on 28 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Leon have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.0 goals a game. Referee Yonatan Peinado Aguirre averages 5.75 cards a game, 0.89 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
62%1.53
X
23%4.05
2
15%5.59
Double Chance
1X
85%1.13
X2
38%2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%1.70
No
44%2.05
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.01 + 1.01 = 3.02
Over 1.5
80%1.20
Over 2.5
58%1.64
Over 3.5
36%2.62
Under 1.5
20%4.33
Under 2.5
42%2.16
Under 3.5
64%1.46
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.2 + 3.8 = 10
Over 8.5
65%1.33
Over 9.5
54%1.61
Over 10.5
42%1.97
Under 8.5
35%2.90
Under 9.5
46%2.17
Under 10.5
58%1.73
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.7 = 4.8
Over 3.5
70%1.39
Over 4.5
52%1.67
Under 3.5
30%2.87
Under 4.5
48%2.10

Match Events

3'Sebastián VegasFoul
45'Jordi Cortizo INJuan Dominguez out
45'Sebastián Vegas INSalvador Reyes out
53'Juan GuevaraFoul
58'Fernando Beltran INJose Alvarado out
58'Ismael Díaz INEdgar Guerra out
62'Ricardo Oliveira INRaymundo Fulgencio out
62'Manuel Mayorga INEder Lopez out
76'Francisco NevarezOG
77'Goal confirmedSebastián Jurado
79'Jesus MurilloDissent
81'Gilberto Sepulveda INLuca Dupuy out
83'Francisco NevarezFoul
83'Diber Cambindo INPaul Bellón out
90+1'Penalty confirmedSebastián Jurado
90+4'Oscar Estupiñan(Penalty)
90+5'Francisco Nevarez INJavier Aquino out
90+5'Madson de Souza Silva INHaret Ortega out
90+9'Jose AlvaradoAssist: Edgar Guerra

Lineups

Leon
4-1-4-1Coach: J. Gandolfi
FC Juarez
5-3-2Coach: T. Campos
Avg rating6.44
Avg rating6.10
I. Martinez6.1181I. Martinez
I. Moreno6.27I. Moreno
J. Romaña6.814J. Romaña
Juan José Guevara Possu6.63J. José Guevara Possu
S. Vegas5.95S. Vegas
J. Rodríguez6.529J. Rodríguez
J. Cortizo6.016J. Cortizo
J. Lara6.4203J. Lara
F. Beltrán6.26F. Beltrán
I. Díaz6.511I. Díaz
D. Cambindo6.127D. Cambindo
S. Jurado5.71S. Jurado
F. Nevárez4.233F. Nevárez
J. Murillo5.83J. Murillo
G. Sepúlveda6.62G. Sepúlveda
D. Piña6.326D. Piña
A. Mayorga6.64A. Mayorga
Monchu6.86Monchu
L. Silva6.2183L. Silva
Ricardinho6.021Ricardinho
Madson6.49Madson
Ó. Estupiñán6.519Ó. Estupiñán

Leon Substitutes

19J. Alvarado58'for Fernando Beltran90+9'7.9
25P. Bellón83'for Diber Cambindo6.3
4B. Colula
8J. Domínguez45'for Jordi Cortizo6.3
15S. Fierro
12J. González
18E. Guerra58'for Ismael Díaz6.7
26S. Reyes45'for Sebastián Vegas6.4
33A. Villegas
247I. Espinosa

FC Juarez Substitutes

8Guilherme Castilho
14E. López62'for Manuel Mayorga6.1
23H. Ortega90+5'for Madson de Souza Silva6.1
13Rodrigo Dourado
16J. Sigala
7R. Fulgencio62'for Ricardo Oliveira6.2
17L. Martínez Dupuy81'for Gilberto Sepulveda6.3
201J. Carmona
20J. Aquino90+5'for Francisco Nevarez6.0
27Guillermo Ruiz

Match Stats

LeonFC Juarez
56%Ball Possession44%
1Corner Kicks4
2Yellow Cards2
7Total Shots9
3Shots on Goal1
2Shots off Goal5
6Shots Inside Box4
1Shots Outside Box5
2Blocked Shots3
14Fouls14
6Offsides1
0Goalkeeper Saves2
389Total Passes304
316Passes Accurate229
13Free Kicks13

Team Comparison

LeonLeon
FC JuarezFC Juarez
1663Elo Rating 1483
1.89Attack 0.58
1.35Defense 1.08
44%Hit Rate 0%
11.5Shots per Game 12.5
5.0Shots on Target 3.5
4.2Corners per Game 6.8
2.3Cards per Game 3.5

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+180 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.02 goals
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

LeonLeon
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.4 vs 0.5 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
FC JuarezFC Juarez
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 67% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

LeonLeon6Wins · 60%
Draws220%
FC JuarezFC Juarez2Wins · 20%
2.0Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
30%3+ goals3 of 10

Previous meetings

Liga MX19/04/2026
LeonFC Juarez
31
Liga MX27/09/2025
FC JuarezLeon
20
Liga MX26/01/2025
LeonFC Juarez
10
Liga MX20/10/2024
FC JuarezLeon
23
Liga MX28/04/2024
FC JuarezLeon
11
Liga MX13/11/2023
LeonFC Juarez
21
Liga MX18/02/2023
FC JuarezLeon
00
Liga MX07/09/2022
LeonFC Juarez
10
Liga MX05/03/2022
FC JuarezLeon
01
Liga MX19/09/2021
LeonFC Juarez
01

Recent Form

LeonLeon
6W2D2L
21/09/2026
Club QueretaroLeon
11
D
15/09/2026
LeonAtletico San Luis
20
W
11/09/2026
U.N.A.M. - PumasLeon
31
L
07/09/2026
LeonClub America
10
W
03/09/2026
TolucaLeon
20
L
29/08/2026
Atlante FCLeon
11
D
26/08/2026
LeonReal Salt Lake
30
W
22/08/2026
LeonMonterrey
20
W
18/08/2026
NecaxaLeon
12
W
13/08/2026
Inter MiamiLeon
23
W
FC JuarezFC Juarez
3W0D7L
19/09/2026
FC JuarezTigres UANL
20
W
14/09/2026
Santos LagunaFC Juarez
21
L
05/09/2026
FC JuarezCF Pachuca
02
L
31/08/2026
TolucaFC Juarez
40
L
22/08/2026
FC JuarezClub America
12
L
16/08/2026
MonterreyFC Juarez
61
L
12/08/2026
Real Salt LakeFC Juarez
30
L
08/08/2026
Vancouver WhitecapsFC Juarez
13
W
05/08/2026
Minnesota United FCFC Juarez
12
W
01/08/2026
FC JuarezU.N.A.M. - Pumas
15
L

Referee Profile

Yonatan Peinado Aguirre75 matches

5.75Cards per match
5.25Yellow cards per match
0.50Red cards per match
24.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Yonatan Peinado Aguirre5.75
Other referees4.86

5.75 cards a match, 0.89 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.86).

Cards come from 16 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Liga MX 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Club AmericaClub America1383233:18+1527LWWDW
2Cruz AzulCruz Azul1482432:23+926WWWDD
3Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas1475221:12+926WWDDL
4AtlasAtlas1473425:26-124WLWDW
5TolucaToluca1465329:19+1023DDDLD
6Club LeonClub Leon1464421:18+322WDLWD
7MonterreyMonterrey1362523:18+520LWWDL
8Club TijuanaClub Tijuana1355321:17+420WDDDL
9Club QueretaroClub Queretaro1362517:18-120LLLWW
10Santos LagunaSantos Laguna1461720:20019LWWWW
11Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis1454519:22-319WWDLW
12U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas1445520:23-317DLWDL
13CF PachucaCF Pachuca1444622:19+316WLLDL
14PueblaPuebla1444616:21-516LLDDL
15Tigres UANLTigres UANL1436515:19-415DLDWW
16Atlante FCAtlante FC1435614:20-614LWLLW
17NecaxaNecaxa1424816:27-1110DLLDL
18FC JuarezFC Juarez1412119:33-245DLLDL
#TeamMPGPts
1Club AmericaClub America1333:1827
2Cruz AzulCruz Azul1432:2326
3Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas1421:1226
4AtlasAtlas1425:2624
5TolucaToluca1429:1923
6Club LeonClub Leon1421:1822
7MonterreyMonterrey1323:1820
8Club TijuanaClub Tijuana1321:1720
9Club QueretaroClub Queretaro1317:1820
10Santos LagunaSantos Laguna1420:2019
11Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis1419:2219
12U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas1420:2317
13CF PachucaCF Pachuca1422:1916
14PueblaPuebla1416:2116
15Tigres UANLTigres UANL1415:1915
16Atlante FCAtlante FC1414:2014
17NecaxaNecaxa1416:2710
18FC JuarezFC Juarez149:335
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About the Leon vs FC Juarez forecast

The forecasts for this Liga MX match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Liga MX

More Liga MX fixtures and forecasts are on the Liga MX Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.