Puebla vs Leon Prediction
Mexico · Apertura - 11
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.61
SignalGOODModel67%SurpriseMediumGap+4.8%
Puebla Rest
12 days
Leon Rest
12 days
Match Forecasts
Match Result
134%2.87
X28%3.30
238%2.38
Double Chance
1X62%1.52
X266%1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes56%1.67
No44%2.06
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.24 + 1.47 = 2.71
Over 1.575%1.29
Over 2.551%1.92
Over 3.530%3.25
Under 1.525%3.50
Under 2.549%1.88
Under 3.570%1.33
Corners
Projected Corners: 5 + 4.3 = 9.3
Over 8.558%1.33
Over 9.548%1.58
Over 10.535%1.99
Under 8.542%2.90
Under 9.552%2.21
Under 10.565%1.79
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2 = 4.1
Over 3.559%1.39
Over 4.539%1.73
Under 3.541%2.87
Under 4.561%2.00
Match Events
42'Ismael DíazAssist: Diber Cambindo
46'Jesús LaraFoul
56'Mathías Adrián Tomás Borges INIgnacio Maestro out
56'L. Hernández INEduardo Mustre out
57'Fernando Beltran INJordi Cortizo out
57'Ismael Díaz INDaniel Arcila out
57'Jesús Lara INRodrigo Echeverría out
66'Omar Moreno INHeriberto Jurado out
70'Edgar Guerra INJuan Dominguez out
80'Heriberto JuradoFoul
80'Fernando Monarrez INOscar Villa out
81'Alejandro Organista INEduardo Armenta out
85'Diber Cambindo INJose Alvarado out
87'Eduardo ArmentaAssist: Juan Pablo Vargas
90+1'Jordi CortizoViolent conduct
Lineups
PueblaLeon
4-1-4-1Coach: J. GandolfiAvg ratingAvg rating
28R. Gutiérrez
12I. Moreno
5F. Almada
4J. Vargas
7F. Monárrez
24A. Organista
16A. Ramírez
27B. Garnica
10M. Tomás
8O. Moreno
9L. Hernández181181I. Martínez
7I. Moreno
14J. Romaña
3J. José Guevara Possu
26S. Reyes
29J. Rodríguez
18E. Guerra
203J. Lara
6F. Beltrán
11I. Díaz
27D. CambindoPuebla Substitutes
15Ó. Villa80'for Fernando Monarrez
25H. Jurado66'for Omar Moreno80'
3A. Herrera
14E. Armenta81'for Alejandro Organista87'
2Á. Leyva
19I. Maestro Puch56'for Mathías Adrián Tomás Borges
29E. Mustre56'for L. Hernández
20J. Pachuca
33J. Rodríguez
Leon Substitutes
25P. Bellón
4B. Colula
16J. Cortizo57'for Fernando Beltran90+1'
8J. Domínguez70'for Edgar Guerra
20R. Echeverría57'for Jesús Lara
23Ó. García
5S. Vegas
33A. Villegas
13D. Arcila57'for Ismael Díaz
19J. Alvarado85'for Diber Cambindo
Match Stats
PueblaLeon 52%Ball Possession48%
6Corner Kicks6
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
18Total Shots11
6Shots on Goal3
7Shots off Goal6
7Shots Inside Box7
11Shots Outside Box4
5Blocked Shots2
6Fouls10
4Offsides3
2Goalkeeper Saves5
442Total Passes422
382Passes Accurate357
10Free Kicks4
Team Comparison
PueblaLeon1483Elo Rating 1664
1.20Attack 1.76
0.70Defense 1.45
0%Hit Rate 37%
11.7Shots per Game 12.4
3.7Shots on Target 5.3
2.8Corners per Game 4.2
1.8Cards per Game 2.4
Game State Tendencies
Puebla- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.3 in first half)
Leon- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.7 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Puebla3Wins · 30%Draws220%
Leon5Wins · 50%
5Wins · 50%2.8Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10
Previous meetings
11/04/2026PueblaLeon01
09/11/2025LeonPuebla12
13/04/2025LeonPuebla10
17/07/2024PueblaLeon22
17/03/2024LeonPuebla21
04/11/2023PueblaLeon54
15/02/2023LeonPuebla20
16/07/2022PueblaLeon11
17/04/2022LeonPuebla01
29/11/2021LeonPuebla20
Recent Form
Puebla3W1D6L
27/09/2026
Tigres UANLPueblaPuebla
Atlante FCPuebla
Toluca
NecaxaPuebla
Club AmericaPueblaPuebla
Santos Laguna
CF PachucaPuebla
Tigres UANLPuebla10
L19/09/2026PueblaAtlante FC11
D16/09/2026PueblaToluca01
L12/09/2026NecaxaPuebla01
W30/08/2026Club AmericaPuebla20
L23/08/2026PueblaSantos Laguna32
W18/08/2026CF PachucaPuebla23
W13/08/2026
San DiegoPuebla
San DiegoPuebla32
L10/08/2026
AustinPuebla
AustinPuebla30
L07/08/2026
Portland TimbersPuebla
Portland TimbersPuebla52
LLeon6W2D2L
28/09/2026Leon
FC Juarez
Club QueretaroLeonLeon
Atletico San LuisAtlante FCLeonLeon
Monterrey
LeonFC Juarez21
W21/09/2026Club QueretaroLeon11
D15/09/2026LeonAtletico San Luis20
W11/09/2026
U.N.A.M. - PumasLeon
U.N.A.M. - PumasLeon31
L07/09/2026LeonClub America
LeonClub America10
W03/09/2026TolucaLeon
29/08/2026TolucaLeon20
LAtlante FCLeon11
D26/08/2026Leon
Real Salt Lake
22/08/2026LeonReal Salt Lake30
WLeonMonterrey20
W18/08/2026NecaxaLeon
NecaxaLeon12
WReferee Profile
4.64Cards per match
4.38Yellow cards per match
0.26Red cards per match
21.8Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.64 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.65).
Cards come from 53 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 25:14 | +11 | 29 | WWWDD |
| 2 | Club America | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 34:19 | +15 | 28 | DLWWD |
| 3 |  Atlas | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 26:26 | 0 | 27 | WWLWD |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 32:23 | +9 | 26 | WWWDD |
| 5 | Toluca | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 29:19 | +10 | 23 | DDDLD |
| 6 |  Club Tijuana | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 25:21 | +4 | 22 | DDWDD |
| 7 | Leon | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 21:18 | +3 | 22 | DWLDW |
| 8 | Monterrey | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 26:21 | +5 | 21 | DLWWD |
| 9 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22:24 | -2 | 20 | WDLWD |
| 10 | Club Queretaro | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 18:21 | -3 | 20 | LLLLW |
| 11 | CF Pachuca | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 25:19 | +6 | 19 | WWLLD |
| 12 | Santos Laguna | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 20:20 | 0 | 19 | LWWWW |
| 13 | Atletico San Luis | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 19:23 | -4 | 19 | LWWDL |
| 14 | Puebla | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 17:23 | -6 | 16 | LLLDD |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 15:22 | -7 | 15 | LDLDW |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 16:24 | -8 | 14 | LLWLL |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16:27 | -11 | 10 | DLLDL |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 12:34 | -22 | 8 | WDLLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guadalajara Chivas | 15 | 25:14 | 29 |
| 2 | Club America | 14 | 34:19 | 28 |
| 3 | Atlas | 15 | 26:26 | 27 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 14 | 32:23 | 26 |
| 5 | Toluca | 14 | 29:19 | 23 |
| 6 | Club Tijuana | 15 | 25:21 | 22 |
| 7 | Leon | 14 | 21:18 | 22 |
| 8 | Monterrey | 14 | 26:21 | 21 |
| 9 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 15 | 22:24 | 20 |
| 10 | Club Queretaro | 14 | 18:21 | 20 |
| 11 | CF Pachuca | 15 | 25:19 | 19 |
| 12 | Santos Laguna | 14 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 13 | Atletico San Luis | 15 | 19:23 | 19 |
| 14 | Puebla | 15 | 17:23 | 16 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 15 | 15:22 | 15 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 15 | 16:24 | 14 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 16:27 | 10 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 15 | 12:34 | 8 |
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About the Puebla vs Leon forecast
The forecasts for this Liga MX match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Puebla and Leon in the Liga MX table
In the Liga MX table, Leon are 7th and Puebla 14th, 6 points apart. League goal record so far: Puebla 17-23, Leon 21-18. The full standings are on the Liga MX Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.