Liverpool vs Villarreal Prediction
World · League Stage - 3
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
73%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.48
SignalGOODModel73%SurpriseMediumGap+5.1%
Value Analysis
72%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.48
SignalGOODModel72%SurpriseMediumGap+7.1%
Liverpool Rest
3 days
Villarreal Rest
3 days
Liverpool vs Villarreal: the result in context
Liverpool beat Villarreal 4-3 in the UEFA Champions League on 20 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
171%1.48
X15%4.73
214%6.22
Double Chance
1X87%1.13
X229%2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes57%1.56
No43%2.30
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.12 + 0.96 = 3.08
Over 1.583%1.10
Over 2.565%1.43
Over 3.544%2.15
Under 1.517%5.50
Under 2.535%2.75
Under 3.556%1.74
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.3 + 3 = 9.3
Over 8.556%1.41
Over 9.545%1.74
Over 10.534%2.19
Under 8.544%2.58
Under 9.555%2.00
Under 10.566%1.60
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 1.9 = 3.6
Over 3.548%1.80
Over 4.528%2.66
Under 3.552%1.91
Under 4.572%1.46
Match Events
4'Georges Mikautadze
27'Alberto MoleiroFoul
29'Sergi Cardona BermúdezAssist: Nathan-Dylan Saliba
36'Alexis Mac AllisterAssist: Konstantinos Tsimikas
41'Álvaro Santiago Mouriño GonzálezFoul
45'Ronald Araujo INFlorian Wirtz out
45'Nathan-Dylan Saliba INTani Oluwaseyi out
45+2'Ronald AraujoAssist: Rio Ngumoha
54'Alberto Moleiro INJuan Foyth out
60'Tajon Buchanan INAlex Freeman out
60'Georges Mikautadze INAyoze Pérez out
65'Alexis Mac AllisterAssist: Rio Ngumoha
66'Lewis Koumas INAlexander Isak out
68'Florian WirtzAssist: Cody Gakpo
74'Rio Ngumoha INBradley Barcola out
74'Jérémy Jacquet INJoe Gomez out
78'Santi Comesaña INGerard Moreno out
81'Treymaurice Nyoni INJames McConnell out
87'Tani OluwaseyiAssist: Ayoze Pérez
Lineups
LiverpoolVillarreal
4-2-3-1Coach: Iñigo PérezAvg ratingAvg rating
1A. Becker
33R. Araújo
5J. Jacquet
4V. van Dijk
21K. Tsimikas
10A. Mac Allister
42T. Nyoni
73R. Ngumoha
38R. Gravenberch
18C. Gakpo
67L. Koumas
25P. Gulácsi
15S. Mouriño
6P. Navarro
12R. Veiga
23S. Cardona
24N. Saliba
18P. Gueye
17T. Buchanan
14S. Comesaña
10A. Moleiro
9G. MikautadzeLiverpool Substitutes
29B. Barcola74'for Rio Ngumoha
44L. Chambers
76J. Danns
2J. Gomez74'for Jérémy Jacquet
9A. Isak66'for Lewis Koumas
6M. Kerkez
25G. Mamardashvili
53J. McConnell81'for Treymaurice Nyoni
7F. Wirtz45'for Ronald Araujo68'
28F. Woodman
94M. Laffey
Villarreal Substitutes
22Ayoze Pérez60'for Georges Mikautadze
5A. Diatta
27N. El Jmili
8J. Foyth54'for Alberto Moleiro
3A. Freeman60'for Tajon Buchanan
1Luíz Júnior
16C. Macia
7Gerard Moreno78'for Santi Comesaña
21T. Oluwaseyi45'for Nathan-Dylan Saliba87'
2Logan Costa
11Ilias Akhomach
28Joselillo Gaitán
Match Stats
LiverpoolVillarreal 53%Ball Possession47%
7Corner Kicks2
0Yellow Cards2
22Total Shots14
7Shots on Goal5
8Shots off Goal2
14Shots Inside Box9
8Shots Outside Box5
7Blocked Shots7
12Fouls10
2Offsides4
2Goalkeeper Saves4
541Total Passes498
464Passes Accurate415
10Free Kicks11
Team Comparison
LiverpoolVillarreal1938Elo Rating 1796
2.85Attack 1.72
0.88Defense 1.51
83%Hit Rate 44%
19.7Shots per Game 17.0
6.2Shots on Target 4.5
7.3Corners per Game 5.9
1.8Cards per Game 2.5
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+142 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.07 goals
📈BTTS Trend
💎Value Analysis Identified
📊Home Overperforming
Game State Tendencies
Liverpool- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.7 vs 1.1 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Villarreal- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Last 2 meetings, all competitions
Liverpool2Wins · 100%Draws00%
Villarreal0Wins · 0%
0Wins · 0%3.5Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored1 of 2
50%3+ goals1 of 2
Previous meetings
03/05/2022VillarrealLiverpool23
27/04/2022LiverpoolVillarreal20
Recent Form
Liverpool6W3D1L
17/10/2026
BrentfordLiverpool
Lask LinzLiverpoolLiverpool
Manchester City
BournemouthLiverpoolLiverpool
TottenhamLiverpool
FulhamLiverpool
Atletico MadridLiverpool
Nottingham Forest
NewcastleLiverpool
BrentfordLiverpool12
W14/10/2026Lask LinzLiverpool36
W11/10/2026LiverpoolManchester City03
L20/09/2026BournemouthLiverpool01
W15/09/2026LiverpoolTottenham31
W12/09/2026LiverpoolFulham00
D09/09/2026LiverpoolAtletico Madrid21
W04/09/2026
IpswichLiverpool
29/08/2026IpswichLiverpool02
WLiverpoolNottingham Forest22
D23/08/2026NewcastleLiverpool22
DVillarreal3W2D5L
17/10/2026Villarreal
ElcheVillarreal
Napoli
Real MadridVillarrealVillarreal
Levante
MalagaVillarrealVillarreal
Real Betis
Borussia DortmundVillarrealVillarreal
Deportivo La Coruna
AlavesVillarrealAtletico MadridVillarreal
VillarrealElche00
D13/10/2026VillarrealNapoli31
W10/10/2026Real MadridVillarreal10
L20/09/2026VillarrealLevante31
W17/09/2026MalagaVillarreal13
W14/09/2026VillarrealReal Betis12
L08/09/2026Borussia DortmundVillarreal32
L05/09/2026VillarrealDeportivo La Coruna23
L28/08/2026AlavesVillarreal10
L23/08/2026Atletico MadridVillarreal22
DReferee Profile
4.22Cards per match
4.09Yellow cards per match
0.13Red cards per match
25.3Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.19 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.28).
Cards come from 269 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:5 | +9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Aston Villa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:3 | +9 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 | Liverpool | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:7 | +5 | 9 | WWW |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:5 | +5 | 9 | WWW |
| 5 | Real Betis | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7:4 | +3 | 9 | WWW |
| 6 |  VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:2 | +5 | 7 | DWW |
| 7 |  Arsenal | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6:2 | +4 | 7 | DWW |
| 8 |  Barcelona | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11:6 | +5 | 6 | LWW |
| 9 |  Como | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10:5 | +5 | 6 | WLW |
| 10 | Manchester City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:5 | +4 | 6 | WLW |
| 11 |  Club Brugge KV | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:6 | +3 | 6 | WWL |
| 12 |  Sporting CP | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7:4 | +3 | 6 | LWW |
| 13 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:4 | +1 | 6 | WLW |
| 14 |  Bayern München | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10:5 | +5 | 5 | DDW |
| 15 |  AS Roma | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | +3 | 4 | WLD |
| 16 | Atletico Madrid | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | +1 | 4 | DWL |
| 17 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | +1 | 4 | LWD |
| 18 |  PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 0 | 4 | WLD |
| 19 | Villarreal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 3 | LWL |
| 20 |  Inter | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:6 | -1 | 3 | WLL |
| 21 |  Manchester United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:6 | -1 | 3 | LLW |
| 22 | Napoli | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:7 | -2 | 3 | WLL |
| 23 |  Galatasaray | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:9 | -3 | 3 | WLL |
| 24 | Lask Linz | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:9 | -3 | 3 | WLL |
| 25 |  Sabah FA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:6 | -3 | 3 | LWL |
| 26 |  Feyenoord | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:8 | -4 | 3 | LWL |
| 27 |  Lens | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:7 | -4 | 3 | LLW |
| 28 |  Bodo/Glimt | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:9 | -5 | 3 | LWL |
| 29 |  AEK Athens FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:8 | -5 | 3 | LLW |
| 30 |  RB Leipzig | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:8 | -5 | 3 | LWL |
| 31 |  Fenerbahçe | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3:9 | -6 | 2 | DLD |
| 32 |  Slavia Praha | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 1 | DLL |
| 33 |  Viking | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5:9 | -4 | 1 | LDL |
| 34 |  FC Porto | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:6 | -4 | 0 | LLL |
| 35 |  Lille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4:10 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:13 | -12 | 0 | LLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 3 | 14:5 | 9 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 3 | 12:3 | 9 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 3 | 12:7 | 9 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 3 | 10:5 | 9 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 3 | 7:4 | 9 |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 7:2 | 7 |
| 7 | Arsenal | 3 | 6:2 | 7 |
| 8 | Barcelona | 3 | 11:6 | 6 |
| 9 | Como | 3 | 10:5 | 6 |
| 10 | Manchester City | 3 | 9:5 | 6 |
| 11 | Club Brugge KV | 3 | 9:6 | 6 |
| 12 | Sporting CP | 3 | 7:4 | 6 |
| 13 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 14 | Bayern München | 3 | 10:5 | 5 |
| 15 | AS Roma | 3 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 | Atletico Madrid | 3 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 17 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 18 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 2:2 | 4 |
| 19 | Villarreal | 3 | 8:8 | 3 |
| 20 | Inter | 3 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 21 | Manchester United | 3 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 22 | Napoli | 3 | 5:7 | 3 |
| 23 | Galatasaray | 3 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 24 | Lask Linz | 3 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 25 | Sabah FA | 3 | 3:6 | 3 |
| 26 | Feyenoord | 3 | 4:8 | 3 |
| 27 | Lens | 3 | 3:7 | 3 |
| 28 | Bodo/Glimt | 3 | 4:9 | 3 |
| 29 | AEK Athens FC | 3 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 30 | RB Leipzig | 3 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 31 | Fenerbahçe | 3 | 3:9 | 2 |
| 32 | Slavia Praha | 3 | 4:7 | 1 |
| 33 | Viking | 3 | 5:9 | 1 |
| 34 | FC Porto | 3 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 35 | Lille | 3 | 4:10 | 0 |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 1:13 | 0 |
Explore more predictions
This match
- Liverpool Predictions
- Villarreal Predictions
- UEFA Champions League Predictions
- UEFA Champions League Standings
- UEFA Champions League Stats 2026
- UEFA Champions League top scorers
- UEFA Champions League Knockout Rounds
- UEFA Champions League Winners and Finals History
- Football Tournaments: Predictions, Brackets and History
More UEFA Champions League matches
- Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain 14/10/26
- Slovan Bratislava vs VfB Stuttgart 14/10/26
- Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha 20/10/26
- Sabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund 20/10/26
- AS Roma vs Slovan Bratislava 20/10/26
- FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven 20/10/26
- Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC 20/10/26
- Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt 20/10/26
About the Liverpool vs Villarreal forecast
This is a UEFA Champions League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Liverpool and Villarreal in the UEFA Champions League table
In the UEFA Champions League table, Liverpool are 3rd and Villarreal 19th, 6 points apart. League goal record so far: Liverpool 12-7, Villarreal 8-8. The full standings are on the UEFA Champions League Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Liverpool and Villarreal have met only 2 times recently, averaging 3.5 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.