Akhmat vs FC Orenburg Prediction

Akhmat
0-1
Finished
HT 0-1
FC Orenburg
Akhmat-Arena, Grozny·Evgeni Bulanov 23/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
72%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.29
SignalGOODModel45%SurpriseMediumGap-5.6%
Akhmat Rest
5 days
FC Orenburg Rest
4 days

Akhmat vs FC Orenburg: result, form and history

FC Orenburg beat Akhmat 1-0 in the Premier League on 23 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: FC Orenburg had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Akhmat.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.1 goals, with both teams scoring in 4 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
45%2.01
X
27%3.60
2
28%3.80
Double Chance
1X
72%1.29
X2
55%1.85
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%1.71
No
45%2.03
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.3 + 1.22 = 2.52
Over 1.5
74%1.28
Over 2.5
51%1.91
Over 3.5
30%3.14
Under 1.5
26%3.53
Under 2.5
49%1.95
Under 3.5
70%1.35
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.4 + 4.4 = 9.8
Over 8.5
63%1.65
Over 9.5
51%2.07
Over 10.5
40%2.71
Under 8.5
37%2.10
Under 9.5
49%1.67
Under 10.5
60%1.38
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.6 = 4.7
Over 3.5
69%-
Over 4.5
50%-
Under 3.5
31%-
Under 4.5
50%-

Match Events

38'Dmitriy RybchinskiyAssist: Jordhy Thompson
52'Kirill Shchetinin INMohamed Konate out
60'Aleksey Tataev INDanila Khotulev out
62'Gedeon GuzinaFoul
66'Mohamed KonateFoul
67'Miroslav Bogosavac INErald maksuti out
67'Georgiy Melkadze INMaksim Sidorov out
71'Damian Puebla INEgor Nazarenko out
71'Dmitriy Rybchinskiy INRenat Golybin out
77'Egas Cacintura INMaksim Samorodov out
83'Jordhy Thompson INAndrey Kasadzhikov out
83'Gedeon Guzina INAnton Lukashov out
90+3'Anton LukashovFoul

Lineups

Akhmat
4-2-3-1Coach: S. Cherchesov
FC Orenburg
4-2-3-1Coach: I. Akhmetzyanov
Avg rating6.48
Avg rating6.96
V. Ulyanov7.11V. Ulyanov
A. Adamov6.295A. Adamov
K. Sidibé6.76K. Sidibé
K. Cake6.45K. Cake
M. Bogosavac6.38M. Bogosavac
T. Ibishev6.64T. Ibishev
Ismael Silva Lima6.711I. Silva Lima
L. Sadulaev6.67L. Sadulaev
Egas Cacintura5.617E. Cacintura
K. Shchetinin6.110K. Shchetinin
G. Melkadze6.277G. Melkadze
B. Ovsyannikov7.61B. Ovsyannikov
M. Sivis7.424M. Sivis
J. Palacios7.46J. Palacios
A. Tataev7.15A. Tataev
E. Tsenov7.326E. Tsenov
R. Kul6.378R. Kul
E. Bolotov6.557E. Bolotov
J. Thompson7.710J. Thompson
D. Puebla6.58D. Puebla
D. Rybchinskiy8.220D. Rybchinskiy
G. Guzina6.430G. Guzina

Akhmat Substitutes

70A. Gadzhiev
97A. Kasadzhikov
42Manuel Keliano
13M. Konaté52'for Kirill Shchetinin66'6.5
76E. Maksuti67'for Miroslav Bogosavac6.8
71R. Mitsaev
20M. Samorodov77'for Egas Cacintura7.1
81M. Sidorov67'for Georgiy Melkadze6.4
54Kirill Kistenev
87A. R. Elberdov

FC Orenburg Substitutes

27Renat Golybin71'for Dmitriy Rybchinskiy7.0
3D. Vedernikov
80M. Pykhcheev
11E. Nazarenko71'for Damian Puebla6.8
63O. Minatulaev
22A. Lukashov83'for Gedeon Guzina90+3'6.7
53V. Korobov
4D. Khotulev60'for Aleksey Tataev6.6
38A. Kasimov
77A. Kasadzhikov83'for Jordhy Thompson6.2
7J. González
35A. Degtev

Match Stats

AkhmatFC Orenburg
64%Ball Possession36%
5Corner Kicks2
1Yellow Cards2
24Total Shots10
5Shots on Goal5
12Shots off Goal4
16Shots Inside Box8
8Shots Outside Box2
7Blocked Shots1
16Fouls28
0Offsides4
4Goalkeeper Saves5
452Total Passes260
341Passes Accurate147
27Free Kicks13

Team Comparison

AkhmatAkhmat
FC OrenburgFC Orenburg
1494Elo Rating 1575
0.56Attack 2.38
1.86Defense 2.18
0%Hit Rate 81%
12.6Shots per Game 10.5
3.5Shots on Target 4.6
5.2Corners per Game 5.2
1.8Cards per Game 4.2

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

AkhmatAkhmat
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
FC OrenburgFC Orenburg
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

AkhmatAkhmat4Wins · 40%
Draws330%
FC OrenburgFC Orenburg3Wins · 30%
2.1Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10

Previous meetings

Premier League05/12/2025
AkhmatFC Orenburg
10
Cup30/09/2025
AkhmatFC Orenburg
01
Premier League22/08/2025
FC OrenburgAkhmat
22
Cup13/08/2025
FC OrenburgAkhmat
21
Premier League08/12/2024
AkhmatFC Orenburg
10
Premier League28/07/2024
FC OrenburgAkhmat
00
Cup04/04/2024
AkhmatFC Orenburg
01
Premier League26/11/2023
OrenburgAkhmat Grozny
11
Premier League20/08/2023
Akhmat GroznyOrenburg
40
Premier League04/03/2023
Akhmat GroznyOrenburg
31

Recent Form

AkhmatAkhmat
3W3D4L
18/10/2026
ZenitAkhmat
32
L
14/10/2026
AkhmatDynamo
12
L
11/10/2026
AkhmatBaltika
00
D
17/09/2026
AkronAkhmat
20
L
13/09/2026
AkhmatDinamo Makhachkala
32
W
07/09/2026
RubinAkhmat
11
D
03/09/2026
DynamoAkhmat
30
L
29/08/2026
AkhmatKrylia Sovetov
33
D
22/08/2026
AkhmatFC Rostov
41
W
18/08/2026
AkhmatFakel
21
W
FC OrenburgFC Orenburg
3W4D3L
19/10/2026
Rodina MoskvaFC Orenburg
22
D
15/10/2026
RubinFC Orenburg
14
W
10/10/2026
FC OrenburgDinamo Makhachkala
40
W
03/10/2026
FC OrenburgTekstilshchik
32
W
03/10/2026
LokomotivFC Orenburg
20
L
17/09/2026
FC OrenburgFC Krasnodar
00
D
12/09/2026
DynamoFC Orenburg
10
L
06/09/2026
FC OrenburgAkron
22
D
02/09/2026
FC OrenburgRubin
2141
L
30/08/2026
Spartak MoscowFC Orenburg
11
D

Referee Profile

Evgeni Bulanov3 matches analysed

4.17Cards per match
3.99Yellow cards per match
0.18Red cards per match
26.5Fouls per match

Strictness

Stricter than 25% of referees analysed

Model estimates, weighted toward the competition average while the sample is small.

League Table

Premier League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1ZenitZenit13100330:13+1730WWWWW
2DynamoDynamo1391321:12+928WLWWW
3CSKA MoscowCSKA Moscow1375121:12+926DWLWW
4Spartak MoscowSpartak Moscow1382325:10+1526WLWDW
5FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar1365221:16+523LDDLD
6FC RostovFC Rostov1353516:17-118WWDWL
7BaltikaBaltika1345417:14+317WDDDL
8FC OrenburgFC Orenburg1338214:12+217DWDWD
9Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov1336417:20-315LWLDD
10RubinRubin1336413:18-515WLLLD
11Dinamo MakhachkalaDinamo Makhachkala1341816:26-1013LLDLL
12Rodina MoskvaRodina Moskva1333715:28-1312WWDLD
13AkronAkron1326516:23-712LWDLW
14LokomotivLokomotiv1325616:20-411LLDWD
15AkhmatAkhmat1325615:19-411LLLDL
16FakelFakel131398:21-136LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1ZenitZenit1330:1330
2DynamoDynamo1321:1228
3CSKA MoscowCSKA Moscow1321:1226
4Spartak MoscowSpartak Moscow1325:1026
5FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar1321:1623
6FC RostovFC Rostov1316:1718
7BaltikaBaltika1317:1417
8FC OrenburgFC Orenburg1314:1217
9Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov1317:2015
10RubinRubin1313:1815
11Dinamo MakhachkalaDinamo Makhachkala1316:2613
12Rodina MoskvaRodina Moskva1315:2812
13AkronAkron1316:2312
14LokomotivLokomotiv1316:2011
15AkhmatAkhmat1315:1911
16FakelFakel138:216
Relegation

About the Akhmat vs FC Orenburg forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Akhmat and FC Orenburg in the Premier League table

In the Premier League table, FC Orenburg are 8th and Akhmat 15th, 6 points apart. League goal record so far: Akhmat 15-19, FC Orenburg 14-12. The full standings are on the Premier League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

FC Orenburg have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.