Arouca vs Nacional Prediction
Portugal · Regular Season - 10
Arouca vs Nacional: what the numbers say
Arouca arrive in slightly better form, with 3 wins from their last five to 1 for Nacional. They meet in the Primeira Liga on 1 Nov 2026.
Arouca have had the better of this fixture, winning 4 of the 4 previous meetings, which averaged 2.5 goals a game.
Match Forecasts
Team Comparison
Arouca
NacionalAI Insights
Game State Tendencies
Arouca- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.7 in first half)
Nacional- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Last 4 meetings, all competitions
Arouca4Wins · 100%0Wins · 0%Previous meetings
21/02/2026AroucaNacional20/09/2025NacionalArouca01/02/2025NacionalArouca25/08/2024AroucaNacionalRecent Form
Arouca
AlvercaArouca
CF Os BelenensesAroucaArouca
Estrela
Sporting CPAroucaArouca
Santa Clara
EstorilAroucaArouca
Maritimo
FC PortoAroucaArouca
Moreirense
GuimaraesAroucaNacionalNacional
SC Braga
SanjoanenseNacional
Rio AveNacionalNacional
FamalicaoNacionalAlvercaSporting CPNacionalNacionalEstrelaVitória SCNacionalNacionalEstorilSanta ClaraNacionalReferee Profile
Compared with other referees
5.55 cards a match, 0.27 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.28).
Cards come from 181 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 21:4 | +17 | 27 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26:8 | +18 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 23:11 | +12 | 21 | WLWDD |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13:6 | +7 | 18 | LWDWW |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12:7 | +5 | 17 | WWDLD |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:11 | +2 | 17 | WWWWW |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8:7 | +1 | 14 | LWWDL |
| 8 | Moreirense | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13:17 | -4 | 14 | WWLDW |
| 9 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13:13 | 0 | 11 | LWWWL |
| 10 | SC Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9:11 | -2 | 11 | LLLDW |
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14:11 | +3 | 10 | WLWDD |
| 12 | Estrela | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 15:19 | -4 | 10 | LLLLD |
| 13 | Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10:10 | 0 | 8 | WLDLD |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9:19 | -10 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10:18 | -8 | 7 | WLLLL |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8:21 | -13 | 7 | LWLDL |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5:19 | -14 | 7 | LWLWL |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5:15 | -10 | 2 | LLLLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 21:4 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 9 | 26:8 | 22 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 10 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 9 | 13:6 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 12:7 | 17 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 9 | 13:11 | 17 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | 8:7 | 14 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 10 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 9 | Alverca | 9 | 13:13 | 11 |
| 10 | SC Braga | 9 | 9:11 | 11 |
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | 14:11 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela | 10 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 | Vitória SC | 9 | 10:10 | 8 |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | 9:19 | 8 |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | 10:18 | 7 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 9 | 8:21 | 7 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 10 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | 5:15 | 2 |
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About the Arouca vs Nacional forecast
The forecasts for this Primeira Liga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Arouca and Nacional in the Primeira Liga table
In the Primeira Liga table, Arouca are 5th and Nacional 15th, 10 points apart. League goal record so far: Arouca 12-7, Nacional 10-18. The full standings are on the Primeira Liga Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Arouca have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.