SC Freiburg vs Bayern München Prediction

Europa-Park-Stadion, Freiburg·Felix Zwayer 25/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
75%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.29
SignalGOODModel64%SurpriseMediumGap-2.3%
SC Freiburg Rest
2 days
Bayern München Rest
3 days

SC Freiburg vs Bayern München: the result in context

Bayern München beat SC Freiburg 3-1 in the Bundesliga on 25 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Bayern München have had the better of this fixture, winning 8 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 3.9 goals a game. Referee Felix Zwayer averages 4.93 cards a game, 0.74 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
23%5.50
X
25%5.12
2
52%1.50
Double Chance
1X
48%2.61
X2
77%1.16
Both Teams to Score
Yes
65%1.44
No
35%2.75
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.18 + 2.04 = 3.22
Over 1.5
87%1.06
Over 2.5
71%1.29
Over 3.5
52%1.80
Under 1.5
13%7.67
Under 2.5
29%3.43
Under 3.5
48%2.03
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.3 + 4.8 = 9
Over 8.5
53%1.46
Over 9.5
41%1.83
Over 10.5
31%2.24
Under 8.5
47%2.52
Under 9.5
59%1.94
Under 10.5
69%1.57
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.1 = 4.1
Over 3.5
59%2.20
Over 4.5
40%3.21
Under 3.5
41%1.65
Under 4.5
60%1.32

Match Events

16'Dayot UpamecanoAssist: Michael Olise
25'Lucas HölerFoul
42'Serge GnabryAssist: Nathaniel Brown
55'Jan-Niklas BesteFoul
57'Lucas Höler INIgor Matanović out
58'Patrick Osterhage INRihito Yamamoto out
61'Josip Stanišić INSacha Boey out
61'Serge Gnabry INIsmael Saibari out
64'Jan-Niklas Beste INCyriaque Irié out
65'Jonathan TahFoul
73'Nathaniel Brown INAlphonso Davies out
77'Derry Lionel Scherhant INVincenzo Grifo out
77'Philipp Lienhart INMaximilian Rosenfelder out
82'Tom BischofOG
85'Maximilian EggesteinFoul
86'Lennart Karl INHiroki Ito out
90+5'Michael Olise

Lineups

SC Freiburg
4-2-3-1Coach: J. Schuster
Bayern München
4-2-3-1Coach: V. Kompany
Avg rating6.23
Avg rating7.06
M. Backhaus6.91M. Backhaus
P. Treu5.829P. Treu
M. Ginter6.628M. Ginter
P. Lienhart6.43P. Lienhart
J. Makengo6.033J. Makengo
M. Eggestein6.28M. Eggestein
P. Osterhage6.16P. Osterhage
J. Beste5.819J. Beste
Y. Suzuki6.614Y. Suzuki
D. Scherhant6.07D. Scherhant
L. Höler6.29L. Höler
J. Urbig7.540J. Urbig
J. Stanišić6.844J. Stanišić
D. Upamecano7.82D. Upamecano
J. Tah6.74J. Tah
N. Brown7.311N. Brown
K. Laimer7.127K. Laimer
T. Bischof6.28T. Bischof
M. Olise9.017M. Olise
L. Karl6.342L. Karl
S. Gnabry7.97S. Gnabry
H. Kane6.49H. Kane

SC Freiburg Substitutes

20R. Yamamoto58'for Patrick Osterhage5.8
37M. Rosenfelder77'for Philipp Lienhart5.9
21F. Müller
31I. Matanović57'for Lucas Höler6.9
17L. Kübler
22Cyriaque Kalou Irié64'for Jan-Niklas Beste6.4
30C. Günter
32V. Grifo77'for Derry Lionel Scherhant6.3
42K. Goto

Bayern München Substitutes

34I. Saibari61'for Serge Gnabry6.8
47David Daiber
30Cassiano Kiala
21H. Ito86'for Lennart Karl6.6
19A. Davies73'for Nathaniel Brown6.7
35Jannis Bärtl
46T. Binder
26S. Ulreich
23S. Boey61'for Josip Stanišić6.9

Match Stats

SC FreiburgBayern München
44%Ball Possession56%
5Corner Kicks6
3Yellow Cards1
16Total Shots17
4Shots on Goal9
5Shots off Goal7
8Shots Inside Box12
8Shots Outside Box5
7Blocked Shots1
9Fouls11
1Offsides1
6Goalkeeper Saves4
407Total Passes523
333Passes Accurate442
10Free Kicks9

Team Comparison

SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
Bayern MünchenBayern München
1850Elo Rating 2091
1.43Attack 3.82
0.90Defense 1.32
36%Hit Rate 37%
15.0Shots per Game 23.2
4.1Shots on Target 10.6
6.5Corners per Game 9.0
1.3Cards per Game 1.3

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.22 goals
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
Bayern MünchenBayern München
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2.4 vs 1.4 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

SC FreiburgSC Freiburg1Wins · 10%
Draws110%
Bayern MünchenBayern München8Wins · 80%
3.9Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
80%3+ goals8 of 10

Previous meetings

Bundesliga04/04/2026
SC FreiburgBayern München
23
Bundesliga22/11/2025
Bayern MünchenSC Freiburg
62
Bundesliga25/01/2025
SC FreiburgBayern München
12
Bundesliga01/09/2024
Bayern MünchenSC Freiburg
20
Bundesliga01/03/2024
SC FreiburgBayern Munich
22
Bundesliga08/10/2023
Bayern MunichSC Freiburg
30
Bundesliga08/04/2023
SC FreiburgBayern Munich
01
DFB Pokal04/04/2023
Bayern MunichSC Freiburg
12
Bundesliga16/10/2022
Bayern MunichSC Freiburg
50
Bundesliga02/04/2022
SC FreiburgBayern Munich
14

Referee Profile

Felix Zwayer248 matches

4.93Cards per match
4.77Yellow cards per match
0.16Red cards per match
23.5Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Felix Zwayer4.93
Other referees4.19

4.93 cards a match, 0.74 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.19).

Cards come from 243 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Bundesliga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Bayern MünchenBayern München752025:6+1917WWDWW
2Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund752012:4+817WDDWW
3SC FreiburgSC Freiburg741216:9+713LLWDW
4Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen741216:12+413LWWWD
5RB LeipzigRB Leipzig740320:11+912WLWLW
6Werder BremenWerder Bremen733115:14+112WDDWD
7FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05731316:13+310LWLWL
8SV ElversbergSV Elversberg731312:15-310LWLDL
9FC AugsburgFC Augsburg723217:13+49DLDLD
101899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim730414:1409WWLLW
11Hamburger SVHamburger SV73046:16-109LWWWL
121. FC Köln1. FC Köln72238:11-38DLWLD
13SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 0772236:9-38WDLWL
14Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt722310:17-78LWLDW
15VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart720510:13-36LLWLL
16FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 0471334:7-36DLLDW
17Union BerlinUnion Berlin71336:18-126DDWLL
18Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach710611:22-113WLLLL
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the SC Freiburg vs Bayern München forecast

The forecasts for this Bundesliga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

SC Freiburg and Bayern München in the Bundesliga table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Bayern München are 1st in the Bundesliga, 4 points ahead of SC Freiburg in 3rd. League goal record so far: SC Freiburg 16-9, Bayern München 25-6. The full standings are on the Bundesliga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.