Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M. Prediction
Argentina · Clausura - 13
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.18
SignalHIGHModel51%SurpriseMediumGap-5.0%
Velez Sarsfield Rest
5 days
Gimnasia M. Rest
5 days
Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M.: the result in context
Velez Sarsfield beat Gimnasia M. 1-0 in the Liga Profesional Argentina on 18 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Referee Dario Herrera averages 5.87 cards a game, 0.74 more than other referees in the same competitions.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
155%1.77
X27%3.50
218%4.70
Double Chance
1X82%1.18
X245%2.00
Both Teams to Score
Yes48%1.94
No52%1.77
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.42 + 0.8 = 2.22
Over 1.568%1.33
Over 2.543%2.11
Over 3.522%3.77
Under 1.532%2.98
Under 2.557%1.70
Under 3.578%1.24
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.3 + 4.1 = 9.4
Over 8.558%1.66
Over 9.546%2.06
Over 10.534%2.65
Under 8.542%2.16
Under 9.554%1.69
Under 10.566%1.39
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.2 + 2.6 = 4.7
Over 3.569%-
Over 4.551%-
Under 3.531%-
Under 4.549%-
Match Events
10'Goal cancelledFacundo Lencioni
32'Simón EscobarFoul
45'Esteban Fernández INNahuel Barboza out
58'Fermin AntoniniFoul
60'Manuel LanziniDissent
70'Luciano César Cingolani INBlas Armoa Nunez out
70'Matías Vargas INSantiago Rodríguez out
79'Juan Cruz Policella INThiago Aguirre out
79'Simón Escobar INDiego Valdés out
82'Luciano ParedesFoul
82'Fermin Antonini INMartín Úbeda out
85'Thiago SilveroAssist: Lucas Robertone
87'Manuel Lanzini INClaudio Baeza out
88'Diego Mondino INI. Charparin out
90'Thiago AguirreFoul
90+3'Joaquin GarciaNot retreating
90+4'Ronaldo Martinez INDilan Godoy out
90+4'Lucas Robertone INLuca Feler out
Lineups
Velez SarsfieldGimnasia M.
4-2-3-1Coach: D. FrancoAvg ratingAvg rating
1T. Marchiori
4J. García
32T. Silveor
16L. Magallán
3E. Gómez
29R. Aliendro
8L. Robertone
37J. Policella
22M. Lanzini
18S. Escobar
77R. Martínez
23C. Rigamonti
32L. Paredes
2D. Mondino
4E. Muñoz
3M. Recalde
21F. Antonini
30E. Fernández
7L. Cingolani
8M. Vargas
26F. Lencioni
9A. MódicaVelez Sarsfield Substitutes
39T. Aguirre79'for Juan Cruz Policella90'
5C. Baeza87'for Manuel Lanzini
19L. Cristaldo
48Luca Feler90+4'for Lucas Robertone
15D. Godoy90+4'for Ronaldo Martinez
21Jano Gordon
46Ulises Piedrabuena
30L. Piola
23F. Sanguinetti
10D. Valdés79'for Simón Escobar
17A. Verón
35M. Arias
Gimnasia M. Substitutes
42L. Carrera
19J. Ceballos
5N. Barboza45'for Esteban Fernández
31L. Petruchi
11S. Rodríguez70'for Matías Vargas
17I. Sabatini88'for Diego Mondino
35V. Simoni
15U. Sánchez
25M. Ubeda82'for Fermin Antonini
27B. Armoa70'for Luciano César Cingolani
33B. Andrada
22J. Franco
Match Stats
Velez SarsfieldGimnasia M. 62%Ball Possession38%
12Corner Kicks2
4Yellow Cards3
20Total Shots11
6Shots on Goal2
7Shots off Goal5
14Shots Inside Box5
6Shots Outside Box6
7Blocked Shots4
9Fouls11
4Offsides0
2Goalkeeper Saves5
495Total Passes320
402Passes Accurate219
10Free Kicks9
Team Comparison
Velez SarsfieldGimnasia M.1720Elo Rating 1616
1.30Attack 0.46
1.68Defense 1.73
44%Hit Rate 19%
14.4Shots per Game 12.0
4.9Shots on Target 2.1
6.0Corners per Game 2.6
1.9Cards per Game 2.4
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+104 Elo
📉Away Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Velez Sarsfield- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.5 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Gimnasia M.- Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
1 previous meeting, all competitions
Velez Sarsfield0Wins · 0%Draws00%
Gimnasia M.1Wins · 100%
1Wins · 100%5.0Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored1 of 1
100%3+ goals1 of 1
Previous meetings
03/04/2026Gimnasia M.Velez Sarsfield32
Recent Form
Velez Sarsfield2W6D2L
12/10/2026
LanusVelez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield
PlatenseVelez Sarsfield
Tigre
Newells Old BoysVelez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield
Estudiantes L.P.
Deportivo RiestraVelez Sarsfield
River PlateVelez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield
Defensa Y Justicia
Boca JuniorsVelez Sarsfield
LanusVelez Sarsfield20
L06/10/2026Velez SarsfieldPlatense22
D21/09/2026Velez SarsfieldTigre32
W11/09/2026Newells Old BoysVelez Sarsfield11
D06/09/2026Velez SarsfieldEstudiantes L.P.10
W03/09/2026Velez SarsfieldBoca Juniors
29/08/2026Velez SarsfieldBoca Juniors3040
LDeportivo RiestraVelez Sarsfield11
D24/08/2026River PlateVelez Sarsfield22
D18/08/2026Velez SarsfieldDefensa Y Justicia11
D09/08/2026Boca JuniorsVelez Sarsfield11
DGimnasia M.5W2D3L
12/10/2026Gimnasia M.Newells Old BoysEstudiantes L.P.Gimnasia M.Gimnasia M.Deportivo RiestraDefensa Y JusticiaGimnasia M.Gimnasia M.Boca Juniors
IndependienteGimnasia M.
Gimnasia L.P.Gimnasia M.Gimnasia M.
Talleres Cordoba
Instituto CordobaGimnasia M.Gimnasia M.
Union Santa Fe
Gimnasia M.Newells Old Boys10
W06/10/2026Estudiantes L.P.Gimnasia M.30
L19/09/2026Gimnasia M.Deportivo Riestra00
D12/09/2026Defensa Y JusticiaGimnasia M.20
L05/09/2026Gimnasia M.Boca Juniors22
D31/08/2026IndependienteGimnasia M.03
W22/08/2026Gimnasia L.P.Gimnasia M.23
W18/08/2026Gimnasia M.Talleres Cordoba31
W09/08/2026Instituto CordobaGimnasia M.10
L01/08/2026Gimnasia M.Union Santa Fe20
WReferee Profile
5.87Cards per match
5.50Yellow cards per match
0.36Red cards per match
26.2Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
5.87 cards a match, 0.74 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.13).
Cards come from 244 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Apertura - Group A
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19:7 | +12 | 31 | WWLWW |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22:9 | +13 | 30 | WDWWD |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18:12 | +6 | 28 | DWLLW |
| 4 | Talleres Cordoba | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 17:13 | +4 | 26 | WWLWD |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24:20 | +4 | 24 | WDWLL |
| 6 | Lanus | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 18:15 | +3 | 24 | LWDLW |
| 7 |  San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 22 | DDWDL |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24:20 | +4 | 21 | LLWLD |
| 9 | Instituto Cordoba | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17:17 | 0 | 21 | LWWLW |
| 10 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 18:21 | -3 | 19 | LLLWW |
| 11 | Gimnasia M. | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14:22 | -8 | 19 | WDWLL |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 10:15 | -5 | 16 | LDDLL |
| 13 |  Central Cordoba de Santiago | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 11:21 | -10 | 16 | WLLLW |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15:27 | -12 | 15 | WDWWL |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5:12 | -7 | 11 | LLLDL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 19:7 | 31 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 22:9 | 30 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 18:12 | 28 |
| 4 | Talleres Cordoba | 16 | 17:13 | 26 |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 24:20 | 24 |
| 6 | Lanus | 16 | 18:15 | 24 |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 14:14 | 22 |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 24:20 | 21 |
| 9 | Instituto Cordoba | 16 | 17:17 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 18:21 | 19 |
| 11 | Gimnasia M. | 16 | 14:22 | 19 |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | 10:15 | 16 |
| 13 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 16 | 11:21 | 16 |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 15:27 | 15 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 5:12 | 11 |
Clausura - Group A
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto Cordoba | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 21:10 | +11 | 32 | LWWLW |
| 2 | Velez Sarsfield | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 23:13 | +10 | 27 | DWLLW |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 22:14 | +8 | 27 | WDWWD |
| 4 | Defensa Y Justicia | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 20:13 | +7 | 27 | LLLWW |
| 5 | Lanus | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 17:10 | +7 | 24 | LWDLW |
| 6 | Newells Old Boys | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 13:10 | +3 | 21 | WDWWL |
| 7 | Gimnasia M. | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 16:15 | +1 | 20 | WDWLL |
| 8 | Independiente | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 12:14 | -2 | 19 | WDWLL |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 7:12 | -5 | 18 | DDWDL |
| 10 | Union Santa Fe | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 21:23 | -2 | 17 | LLWLD |
| 11 | Estudiantes L.P. | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 17:18 | -1 | 14 | WWLWW |
| 12 | Platense | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 14:20 | -6 | 14 | LDDLL |
| 13 | Deportivo Riestra | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 10:14 | -4 | 12 | LLLDL |
| 14 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 11:23 | -12 | 10 | WLLLW |
| 15 | Talleres Cordoba | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 13:22 | -9 | 9 | WWLWD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto Cordoba | 14 | 21:10 | 32 |
| 2 | Velez Sarsfield | 14 | 23:13 | 27 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 14 | 22:14 | 27 |
| 4 | Defensa Y Justicia | 14 | 20:13 | 27 |
| 5 | Lanus | 14 | 17:10 | 24 |
| 6 | Newells Old Boys | 14 | 13:10 | 21 |
| 7 | Gimnasia M. | 14 | 16:15 | 20 |
| 8 | Independiente | 14 | 12:14 | 19 |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 14 | 7:12 | 18 |
| 10 | Union Santa Fe | 14 | 21:23 | 17 |
| 11 | Estudiantes L.P. | 14 | 17:18 | 14 |
| 12 | Platense | 14 | 14:20 | 14 |
| 13 | Deportivo Riestra | 14 | 10:14 | 12 |
| 14 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 14 | 11:23 | 10 |
| 15 | Talleres Cordoba | 14 | 13:22 | 9 |
Explore more predictions
This match
More Liga Profesional Argentina matches
- Huracan vs Gimnasia L.P. 16/10/26
- Defensa Y Justicia vs Instituto Cordoba 17/10/26
- Boca Juniors vs Talleres Cordoba 17/10/26
- Independ. Rivadavia vs Tigre 17/10/26
- Racing Club vs Independiente 18/10/26
- Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo 18/10/26
- Newells Old Boys vs Central Cordoba de Santiago 20/10/26
- Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central 20/10/26
About the Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M. forecast
The forecasts for this Liga Profesional Argentina match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Velez Sarsfield and Gimnasia M. in the Liga Profesional Argentina table
In the Liga Profesional Argentina table, Velez Sarsfield are 3rd and Gimnasia M. 11th, 9 points apart. League goal record so far: Velez Sarsfield 18-12, Gimnasia M. 14-22. The full standings are on the Liga Profesional Argentina Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Velez Sarsfield and Gimnasia M. have met only 1 time recently, with 5.0 goals in that meeting. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.