Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction

Allianz Arena, Munich·Tobias Stieler 31/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
77%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.27
SignalHIGHModel74%SurpriseMediumGap-1.7%
Value Analysis
76%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.40
SignalHIGHModel76%SurpriseMediumGap+9.9%
Bayern München Rest
2 days
Borussia Dortmund Rest
3 days

Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund: result, form and history

Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga on 31 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Bayern München have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 3.7 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
72%1.31
X
17%6.05
2
11%8.50
Double Chance
1X
89%1.08
X2
28%3.40
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%1.50
No
38%2.45
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.31 + 0.95 = 3.26
Over 1.5
87%1.06
Over 2.5
72%1.27
Over 3.5
53%1.73
Under 1.5
13%8.50
Under 2.5
28%3.58
Under 3.5
47%2.14
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.4 + 3.8 = 10.2
Over 8.5
66%1.36
Over 9.5
55%1.73
Over 10.5
44%2.14
Under 8.5
34%2.68
Under 9.5
45%2.07
Under 10.5
56%1.66
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.4 + 1.9 = 3.3
Over 3.5
43%1.83
Over 4.5
24%2.92
Under 3.5
57%1.83
Under 4.5
76%1.40

Match Events

6'Jobe BellinghamFoul
29'Ismael Saibari INNathaniel Brown out
31'Serge Gnabry INJosip Stanišić out
34'Goal cancelledJobe Bellingham
38'Konrad Laimer
53'Josip StanišićFoul
56'Harry Kane(Penalty missed)
60'Serhou GuirassyAssist: Carney Chukwuemeka
66'Dayot UpamecanoAssist: Harry Kane
67'Carney Chukwuemeka INMarcel Sabitzer out
67'Maximilian Beier INKonstantinos Karetsas out
74'Konrad LaimerFoul
76'Felix Nmecha INFábio Silva out
84'Michael Olise INLennart Karl out
87'Jobe Bellingham INSamuele Inácio out
87'Kouakou Joane Gadou INJulian Ryerson out
89'Fábio SilvaAssist: Konstantinos Karetsas

Lineups

Bayern München
4-2-3-1Coach: V. Kompany
Borussia Dortmund
3-4-2-1Coach: N. Kovač
Avg rating6.63
Avg rating6.48
J. Urbig6.740J. Urbig
K. Laimer7.327K. Laimer
D. Upamecano7.62D. Upamecano
Kim Min-Jae6.93K. Min-Jae
A. Davies6.919A. Davies
J. Kimmich6.66J. Kimmich
A. Pavlović6.945A. Pavlović
M. Olise6.417M. Olise
I. Saibari5.834I. Saibari
S. Gnabry6.17S. Gnabry
H. Kane6.89H. Kane
G. Kobel6.31G. Kobel
Kouakou Joane Gadou5.922K. Joane Gadou
W. Anton6.13W. Anton
N. Schlotterbeck6.94N. Schlotterbeck
M. Beier6.114M. Beier
J. Veerman6.325J. Veerman
F. Nmecha6.48F. Nmecha
D. Svensson6.624D. Svensson
J. Bellingham6.27J. Bellingham
C. Chukwuemeka6.717C. Chukwuemeka
S. Guirassy7.99S. Guirassy

Bayern München Substitutes

26S. Ulreich
4J. Tah
44J. Stanišić31'for Serge Gnabry53'6.4
42L. Karl84'for Michael Olise6.2
21H. Ito
11N. Brown29'for Ismael Saibari6.3
23S. Boey
8T. Bischof
46T. Binder

Borussia Dortmund Substitutes

21Fábio Silva76'for Felix Nmecha89'8.2
20M. Sabitzer67'for Carney Chukwuemeka6.0
26J. Ryerson87'for Kouakou Joane Gadou5.8
18E. Nwaneri
33A. Meyer
39F. Mané
19K. Karetsas67'for Maximilian Beier5.7
40S. Inacio87'for Jobe Bellingham6.5
5R. Bensebaïni

Match Stats

Bayern MünchenBorussia Dortmund
56%Ball Possession44%
5Corner Kicks2
2Yellow Cards1
23Total Shots12
5Shots on Goal6
10Shots off Goal2
18Shots Inside Box7
5Shots Outside Box5
8Blocked Shots4
11Fouls6
3Offsides3
4Goalkeeper Saves3
603Total Passes483
516Passes Accurate394
5Free Kicks11

Team Comparison

Bayern MünchenBayern München
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
2105Elo Rating 1945
4.11Attack 1.43
1.52Defense 2.13
66%Hit Rate 69%
19.9Shots per Game 14.6
9.1Shots on Target 4.9
7.5Corners per Game 8.0
1.6Cards per Game 1.3

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+161 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.26 goals
📈BTTS Trend80% in H2H
🔥Derby Match
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Bayern MünchenBayern München
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2.4 vs 1.7 in first half)
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Bayern MünchenBayern München6Wins · 60%
Draws330%
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund1Wins · 10%
3.7Avg Goals
80%Both teams scored8 of 10
80%3+ goals8 of 10

Previous meetings

Super Cup22/08/2026
Borussia DortmundBayern München
12
Bundesliga28/02/2026
Borussia DortmundBayern München
23
Bundesliga18/10/2025
Bayern MünchenBorussia Dortmund
21
Bundesliga12/04/2025
Bayern MünchenBorussia Dortmund
22
Bundesliga30/11/2024
Borussia DortmundBayern München
11
Bundesliga30/03/2024
Bayern MunichBorussia Dortmund
02
Bundesliga04/11/2023
Borussia DortmundBayern Munich
04
Bundesliga01/04/2023
Bayern MunichBorussia Dortmund
42
Bundesliga08/10/2022
Borussia DortmundBayern Munich
22
Bundesliga23/04/2022
Bayern MunichBorussia Dortmund
31

Referee Profile

Tobias Stieler224 matches

3.88Cards per match
3.73Yellow cards per match
0.15Red cards per match
23.0Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Tobias Stieler3.85
Other referees4.30

3.85 cards a match, 0.45 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.30).

Cards come from 213 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Bundesliga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Bayern MünchenBayern München853027:8+1918DWWDW
2Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund853014:6+818DWDDW
3SC FreiburgSC Freiburg851218:10+816WLLWD
4RB LeipzigRB Leipzig850322:11+1115WWLWL
5Werder BremenWerder Bremen843117:14+315WWDDW
6Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen841318:16+213LLWWW
7SV ElversbergSV Elversberg841316:16013WLWLD
8Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt832313:18-511WLWLD
9FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05831417:17010LLWLW
10FC AugsburgFC Augsburg823318:15+39LDLDL
11VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart830514:15-19WLLWL
121899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim830514:16-29LWWLL
131. FC Köln1. FC Köln82339:12-39DDLWL
14SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 0782336:9-39DWDLW
15Hamburger SVHamburger SV83057:19-129LLWWW
16Union BerlinUnion Berlin81437:19-127DDDWL
17FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 0481344:9-56LDLLD
18Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach811611:22-114DWLLL
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund forecast

As a derby, this Bundesliga meeting carries extra weight; the forecasts take that context into account alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga table

In the Bundesliga table, Bayern München (1st) and Borussia Dortmund (2nd) are level on 18 points. League goal record so far: Bayern München 27-8, Borussia Dortmund 14-6. The full standings are on the Bundesliga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.0 out of 10 by our context model. Bayern München have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.