Union Santa Fe vs Independiente Prediction
Argentina · Clausura - 10
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
68%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.36
SignalSOLIDModel42%SurpriseMediumGap-5.6%
Value Analysis
56%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
2.00
SignalNEUTRALModel56%SurpriseMediumGap+6.1%
Union Santa Fe Rest
6 days
Independiente Rest
5 days
Union Santa Fe vs Independiente: the result in context
Independiente beat Union Santa Fe 2-1 in the Liga Profesional Argentina on 19 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Their 7 previous meetings averaged 2.6 goals, with both teams scoring in 1 of them.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
139%2.45
X31%3.00
230%3.02
Double Chance
1X70%1.36
X261%1.50
Both Teams to Score
Yes49%1.95
No51%1.75
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.1 + 0.94 = 2.04
Over 1.567%1.40
Over 2.541%2.38
Over 3.520%4.50
Under 1.533%2.70
Under 2.559%1.57
Under 3.580%1.20
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.3 + 4.6 = 9.9
Over 8.561%1.59
Over 9.550%2.00
Over 10.539%2.53
Under 8.539%2.22
Under 9.550%1.74
Under 10.561%1.42
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.3 = 4.3
Over 3.563%1.38
Over 4.544%1.74
Under 3.537%2.90
Under 4.556%2.00
Match Events
15'L. MenossiUnsportsmanlike conduct
21'C. Avila INI. Morales out
37'L. GodoyFoul
45+2'J. Palais INM. Abaldo out
45+5'Goal Disallowed - offsideJ. Mosqueira
46'F. Zabala INR. Martino out
49'M. EstigarribiaAssist: J. Mosqueira
52'S. MontielAssist: L. Godoy
57'M. MezaAssist: M. Abaldo
59'B. Cuello INM. Luna Diale out
59'J. Mosqueira INI. Malcorra out
65'C. TarragonaFoul
68'M. Estigarribia INE. Ramirez out
70'I. MarconeFoul
71'J. ArrayagoFoul
75'M. AbaldoFoul
79'M. Perez Curci IND. Martinez out
80'J. Palacios INM. Aguirre out
80'S. Montiel INL. Millan out
80'L. Ayala INB. Pitton out
Lineups
Union Santa FeIndependiente
4-3-3Coach: Jadson VieraAvg ratingAvg rating
21M. Mansilla
15J. Pintado
4M. Rocha
26J. Pablo Ludueña
18L. Ayala
20J. Palacios
17J. Mosqueira
5L. Menossi
22B. Cuello
19M. Estigarribia
C25C. Tarragona
33R. Rey
29L. Godoy
13J. Fedorco
35J. Miguel Arrayago
22F. Zabala
16M. Perez Curci
C23I. Marcone
8M. Meza
7S. Montiel
6C. Ávila
24J. PalaisUnion Santa Fe Substitutes
10Ignacio Malcorra59'for J. Mosqueira
11Mauro Luna59'for B. Cuello
43Eric Ramírez68'for M. Estigarribia
31Misael Aguirre80'for J. Palacios
12Bruno Pittón80'for L. Ayala
40Lucas Meuli
44Tomás Fagioli
36Mateo Aimar
27Tobías Rubio
8Emilio Giaccone
34Mateo Peresutti
38Valentín Cerrudo
Independiente Substitutes
9Iván Morales21'for C. Avila
19Matías Abaldo45+2'for J. Palais75'
39Ramiro Martino46'for F. Zabala
32David Martínez79'for M. Perez Curci
14Lautaro Millán80'for S. Montiel
77Santiago Mele
2Franco Calderón
36Sebastián Valdez
4Santiago Arias
30Tomás Parmo
10Luciano Cabral
34Felipe Tempone
Match Stats
Union Santa FeIndependiente 56%Ball Possession44%
6Corner Kicks1
2Yellow Cards4
20Total Shots8
4Shots on Goal4
10Shots off Goal2
13Shots Inside Box4
7Shots Outside Box4
6Blocked Shots2
11Fouls12
3Offsides0
2Goalkeeper Saves3
366Total Passes312
277Passes Accurate235
76%Pass Accuracy75%
Team Comparison
Union Santa FeIndependiente1586Elo Rating 1655
0.58Attack 0.94
1.07Defense 1.64
0%Hit Rate 17%
15.7Shots per Game 11.3
4.4Shots on Target 2.9
4.2Corners per Game 3.3
3.1Cards per Game 2.7
AI Insights
📉Home Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Union Santa Fe- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Independiente- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.3 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 7 meetings, all competitions
Union Santa Fe1Wins · 14%Draws229%
Independiente4Wins · 57%
4Wins · 57%2.6Avg Goals
14%Both teams scored1 of 7
43%3+ goals3 of 7
Previous meetings
23/05/2026Union Santa FeIndependiente02
10/03/2026IndependienteUnion Santa Fe44
06/11/2024IndependienteUnion Santa Fe30
24/06/2023Union Santa FeIndependiente30
20/09/2022Union Santa FeIndependiente01
26/10/2021IndependienteUnion Santa Fe10
25/04/2021Union Santa FeIndependiente00
Recent Form
Union Santa Fe4W1D5L
13/09/2026
Talleres CordobaUnion Santa FeUnion Santa Fe
Instituto CordobaUnion Santa Fe
Sarmiento Junin
AldosiviUnion Santa Fe
San LorenzoUnion Santa FeUnion Santa Fe
Central Cordoba de SantiagoUnion Santa Fe
Lanus
Gimnasia M.Union Santa Fe
PlatenseUnion Santa Fe
Talleres CordobaUnion Santa Fe21
L08/09/2026Union Santa FeInstituto Cordoba32
W29/08/2026Union Santa FeSarmiento Junin41
W21/08/2026AldosiviUnion Santa Fe13
W15/08/2026San LorenzoUnion Santa Fe10
L11/08/2026Union Santa FeCentral Cordoba de Santiago12
L07/08/2026Union Santa FeLanus21
W01/08/2026Gimnasia M.Union Santa Fe20
L25/07/2026PlatenseUnion Santa Fe22
D23/05/2026Union Santa FeIndependiente
Union Santa FeIndependiente02
LIndependiente4W2D4L
14/09/2026IndependienteSan LorenzoCentral Cordoba de SantiagoIndependienteIndependienteGimnasia M.Independiente
Independ. RivadaviaLanusIndependienteIndependientePlatense
Velez SarsfieldIndependienteIndependiente
Newells Old Boys
Estudiantes L.P.Independiente
IndependienteSan Lorenzo11
D06/09/2026Central Cordoba de SantiagoIndependiente01
W31/08/2026IndependienteGimnasia M.03
L22/08/2026IndependienteIndepend. Rivadavia00
D17/08/2026LanusIndependiente13
W13/08/2026
Atletico TucumanIndependiente
09/08/2026Atletico TucumanIndependiente40
LIndependientePlatense01
L04/08/2026Velez SarsfieldIndependiente10
L31/07/2026IndependienteNewells Old Boys10
W26/07/2026Estudiantes L.P.Independiente02
WReferee Profile
5.68Cards per match
5.38Yellow cards per match
0.30Red cards per match
23.9Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
5.68 cards a match, 0.45 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.23).
Cards come from 87 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Apertura - Group A
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19:7 | +12 | 31 | WWLWW |
| 2 |  Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22:9 | +13 | 30 | WDWWD |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18:12 | +6 | 28 | DWLLW |
| 4 | Talleres Cordoba | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 17:13 | +4 | 26 | WWLWD |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24:20 | +4 | 24 | WDWLL |
| 6 | Lanus | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 18:15 | +3 | 24 | LWDLW |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 22 | DDWDL |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24:20 | +4 | 21 | LLWLD |
| 9 | Instituto Cordoba | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17:17 | 0 | 21 | LWWLW |
| 10 |  Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 18:21 | -3 | 19 | LLLWW |
| 11 | Gimnasia M. | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14:22 | -8 | 19 | WDWLL |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 10:15 | -5 | 16 | LDDLL |
| 13 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 11:21 | -10 | 16 | WLLLW |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15:27 | -12 | 15 | WDWWL |
| 15 |  Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5:12 | -7 | 11 | LLLDL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 19:7 | 31 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 22:9 | 30 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 18:12 | 28 |
| 4 | Talleres Cordoba | 16 | 17:13 | 26 |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 24:20 | 24 |
| 6 | Lanus | 16 | 18:15 | 24 |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 14:14 | 22 |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 24:20 | 21 |
| 9 | Instituto Cordoba | 16 | 17:17 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 18:21 | 19 |
| 11 | Gimnasia M. | 16 | 14:22 | 19 |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | 10:15 | 16 |
| 13 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 16 | 11:21 | 16 |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 15:27 | 15 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 5:12 | 11 |
Clausura - Group A
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto Cordoba | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 21:10 | +11 | 32 | LWWLW |
| 2 | Velez Sarsfield | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 23:13 | +10 | 27 | DWLLW |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 22:14 | +8 | 27 | WDWWD |
| 4 | Defensa Y Justicia | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 20:13 | +7 | 27 | LLLWW |
| 5 | Lanus | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 17:10 | +7 | 24 | LWDLW |
| 6 | Newells Old Boys | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 13:10 | +3 | 21 | WDWWL |
| 7 | Gimnasia M. | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 16:15 | +1 | 20 | WDWLL |
| 8 | Independiente | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 12:14 | -2 | 19 | WDWLL |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 7:12 | -5 | 18 | DDWDL |
| 10 | Union Santa Fe | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 21:23 | -2 | 17 | LLWLD |
| 11 | Estudiantes L.P. | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 17:18 | -1 | 14 | WWLWW |
| 12 | Platense | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 14:20 | -6 | 14 | LDDLL |
| 13 | Deportivo Riestra | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 10:14 | -4 | 12 | LLLDL |
| 14 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 11:23 | -12 | 10 | WLLLW |
| 15 | Talleres Cordoba | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 13:22 | -9 | 9 | WWLWD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto Cordoba | 14 | 21:10 | 32 |
| 2 | Velez Sarsfield | 14 | 23:13 | 27 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 14 | 22:14 | 27 |
| 4 | Defensa Y Justicia | 14 | 20:13 | 27 |
| 5 | Lanus | 14 | 17:10 | 24 |
| 6 | Newells Old Boys | 14 | 13:10 | 21 |
| 7 | Gimnasia M. | 14 | 16:15 | 20 |
| 8 | Independiente | 14 | 12:14 | 19 |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 14 | 7:12 | 18 |
| 10 | Union Santa Fe | 14 | 21:23 | 17 |
| 11 | Estudiantes L.P. | 14 | 17:18 | 14 |
| 12 | Platense | 14 | 14:20 | 14 |
| 13 | Deportivo Riestra | 14 | 10:14 | 12 |
| 14 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 14 | 11:23 | 10 |
| 15 | Talleres Cordoba | 14 | 13:22 | 9 |
Explore more predictions
This match
More Liga Profesional Argentina matches
- Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Defensa Y Justicia 18/09/26
- Racing Club vs Sarmiento Junin 19/09/26
- Gimnasia L.P. vs Banfield 19/09/26
- Gimnasia M. vs Deportivo Riestra 19/09/26
- River Plate vs Huracan 20/09/26
- Instituto Cordoba vs Talleres Cordoba 20/09/26
- Platense vs Newells Old Boys 20/09/26
- Rosario Central vs Argentinos JRS 20/09/26
About the Union Santa Fe vs Independiente forecast
The forecasts for this Liga Profesional Argentina match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Union Santa Fe and Independiente in the Liga Profesional Argentina table
In the Liga Profesional Argentina table, Independiente are 5th and Union Santa Fe 8th, 3 points apart. League goal record so far: Union Santa Fe 24-20, Independiente 24-20. The full standings are on the Liga Profesional Argentina Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.